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WWRP MWFR Working Group Sixth Meeting, 10-11 September 2011, Berlin

WWRP MWFR Working Group Sixth Meeting, 10-11 September 2011, Berlin.

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WWRP MWFR Working Group Sixth Meeting, 10-11 September 2011, Berlin

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  1. WWRP MWFR Working Group Sixth Meeting, 10-11 September 2011, Berlin WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP)Leading institutions: Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA East China RMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo Typhoon CentreSupported and guided by WWRP, TCP, and PWS of WMO

  2. Outline • Backgrounds • Objectives • Tasks • Progresses

  3. Backgrounds • Proposed by Shanghai Meteorology Bureau/CMA (East China RMC) during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009. • Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009. • A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project • Implementing duration: 2010-2012 • 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off • Working closely with the NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Experiment

  4. Objectives • To enhance the ability of forecasters to issue timely and accurate typhoon forecasts and strengthen the ability of decision-makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts,   • To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced typhoon forecasting technique in the world,   • To assess the WMO-TLFDP’s impacts on enhancing the typhoon forecast service as well as its social and economic benefits, • To promote the implementation of the most up to date forecast technique for landfall typhoons in other typhoon affected Members of WMO, and   • Specifically，to enhance the capability of forecasting typhoon landfall for the “Shanghai MHEWS” to enable SMB to provide enhanced typhoon forecast service during the duration of Expo 2010.

  5. Specific Tasks Collection of real-time forecast data Verification of forecasts Forecast integration techniques and reliability analyses Dissemination of products Benefit Assessment

  6. Progresses

  7. To help the forecasters of ECR be acquainted with the forecast techniques and related products which would be introduced to them during the World Expo 2010. • 11 lecturers from 9 institutions • Trainees: 20 forecasters from ECR

  8. List of typhoon forecast products providers (TFPPs)

  9. List of products collected in real time • & • the way of collection • Yellow: GTS • Red: FTP • Green: FTP + CMA Intranet • Blue: CMA Intranet • Orange: Via TIGGE

  10. Real-time verification Track:distance error, error in speed and direction Intensity:absolute and relative error Precipitation:MET from NCAR is implemented MODE products for 24h precipitation initialized at 00 UTC August 31. forecast of SMB-WARMS; Observation.

  11. Website of the project Example pages from http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn Released in late June, 2011

  12. Operational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center Similar to the website of the project, but in Chinese

  13. MICAPS TC Plug-in A tool for browsing and analyzing tropical cyclone track together with other data from multiple sources.

  14. Data Archiving All the data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by SMB, which are collected in real time. These data are available to research, training and capacity-building activities.

  15. Post-season verification and reliability analyses for 2010 2010-10-18-12 2010-10-19-12 Sharp turn of Megi in South China Sea(super-ensemble forecasts based on available deterministic products) The concensus/super-ensemble prediction is valuable in aiding the track forecast

  16. Post-season verification and reliability analyses for 2010 It is encouraging to see that most models show skills at one or more leading time levels and some are comparable to or even better than official forecasts in certain aspects. Modification on model outputs based on initial intensity and error information can significantly improve the forecast skill Rapid intensification remains unresolved by all the models

  17. Post-season Verification and reliability analyses for 2010 Fortunate / Unfortunate In the afternoon of September 1, 2010, heavy rain hit Shanghai as a result of the combined effect of tropical cyclones Lionrock and Kompasu, and cold air intrusion. No model (neither global nor regional model) initialized at 1200UTC on August 31 predicts correctly the occurence of this heavy rain event. Some models (ECMWF, T639/CMA) initialized at 0000UTC on September 1 forecast correctly that there will be a rainfall event on that day, but all failed to indicate correctly the large rainfall amount and intensity.

  18. High resolution regional model has advantages in capturing large rainfall amount and also the rainfall related to smaller scale features

  19. Thank you for your attention.

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