WG-MWFR activities Jeanette Onvlee Chair WWRP/WG-MWFR

1. WG-MWFR activities Jeanette Onvlee Chair WWRP/WG-MWFR JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

2. Current membership • Dale Barker (UK Met Office) • Stephane Belair (Env Can) • Jimy Dudhia (NCAR) • Jeanette Onvlee (chair) • Mathias Rotach (Univ. Innsbruck) • Kazuo Saito (JMA/MRI) • Peter Steinle (BOM) • Volker Wulfmeyer (Univ Hohenheim) • Hui Yu (CMA) JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

3. Activities in the past year • Involvement in existing RDP’s/FDP’s and projects • Involvement in (possible) new RDP/FDPs • Dedicated workshops on specific topics • Various other activities JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

4. COPS final activities • Dedicated issue of QJRMS, 2011 • Dedicated issue in Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 2012 • Final COPS workshop: session in EGU • Final report to be submitted after EGU JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

5. Major COPS ResultsandConclusions • Logistics: Data collection and harmonization, common visualization tools, air traffic control, data base, ... • Processes: better understanding of processes influencing convective precipitation over orography • (behaviour of evapotranspiration, CAPE and CIN, influence of thermodynamically-induced flow on convective initiation,...) • Model performance and verification: Extensive validation of convection-permitting vs coarser models • (overestimation of transpiration at low soil moisture, too deep BL over mountains, vertical wind too low in convergence zones, windward-lee effects leading to displacement of convergence zone triggering CI at wrong locations, better diurnal cycle of precip and QPF by convection-permitting models,...)

6. COPS PrecipitationStatistics Meteo Swiss COSMO7 with parameterization of deep convection, 7-km grid resolution Meteo Swiss COSMO2 without parameterization of deep convection, 2.2 km grid resolution COPS precipitationclimatology (June to August, 2007). 3-month integratedprecipitationofmodel - observations. Convection-permitting models reduce the windward-lee effect and improve the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation.

7. Major COPS ResultsandConclusions 4) Demonstration of new observations: Water-vapor and temperature lidar; GPS STD and tomography; ground-based and airborne sensors of cloud microphysical properties; lidar aerosol data • Much more can be exploited with the COPS data set, emphasis should be on studying ABL and microphysics. • New lidar technology available for long-term operational measurements. • 5) Data assimilation and predictability: • Positive impact of assimilating GPS STD, radar winds and reflectivity • Orography can increase the predictability of convection. • The lead time is not limited by the lifetime of convective cells but by the lifetime of the forcing conditions leading to convection. • Multi-model ensemble provided improved simulation of convective cells (14 h lead time). • COPS and D-PHASE data can be used as DA testbed, unique for verification studies • More impact studies and testing and comparison of different DA techniques still need to be done.

8. Last activities Beijing 08 RDP/FDP Overview article in BAMS, March 2012

9. FROST-14 • Combined RDP/FDP on nowcasting/mesoscale deterministic and probabilistic modelling, as meteorological support of Sochi 2014 Winter Games. • Winter nowcasting/short-range forecasting in complex terrain • Kickoff meeting of FROST-14: March 2011. Second meeting: April 2012. • Scientific plan: written, to be discussed at this meeting • Role WG-MWFR: finding partners, participation, advice to organizers (learn from SNOW-V10 and other experiences) Issues of concern: • Availability of observations for DA: relatively few local data, radar delayed?? • LAMEPS: Sufficient attention to teaching forecasters how to use this? JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

10. HYMEX/TTM4 • One of the (newest) task teams of HYMEX, led by a WG-MWFR member • Aim: set up testbed for DA based on HYMEX SOP data; organize/perform data assimilation experiments on e.g.: • Test more flow-dependent assimilation techniques (4D-VAR, hybrid ensemble assimilation, field alignment, …) • Impact of new high-resolution observation types and how to make the best possible use of them • Rapid update cycling, spinup, balance, and usefulness of mesoscale models/analysis systems for nowcasting • Coupling aspects • Interest for participation gathered, solidify plans in next meeting at HYMEX workshop JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

11. Some promising new obs types JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

12. Grey zone project • subgroup from WGNE, WG-MWFR, GCSS tasked to set up idealized grey zone experiment • Idea: Set up basic experimental framework and gain participants for initial “simple” extratropical case of cold air outbreak over sea, in 2011-2012. Later extend this framework and modelling community to other cases, including e.g. deep convection in tropics, open cell convection over land. • Status: Interest expressed by ~10 modelling groups. Case prepared, ready for release in May 2012. First results to be discussed in Pan-GASS meeting, Sep 2012. JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

13. Possible new RDP: TOMACS • TOkyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study • Project of ~25 Japanese orgnizations, aimed at making urban areas more weather-resilient • TOMACS field campaign (2011-2013) • Improvement of early detection and warning systems • Social experiments in rescue services, risk management etc. • Originally purely Japanese initiative • However, plenty of scope for international cooperation • Instrumentation • Subsequent studies on urban meteorology / very high resolution modelling / improved nowcasting/short-term forecasting and warning systems • Social aspect of weather-resilience => International RDP project in preparation • Interest expressed by research groups in ~10 countries • Draft plan tbd at international kickoff meeting Oct 2012 JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

14. Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for extreme weather resilient city (TOMACS) • Core Research Institutes: • National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) • Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) • Toyo University • Collaborated with 23 organizations: • NILIM, Japan Weather Association, NICT, ENRI, Hokkaido Univ., DPRI/Kyoto Univ., Osaka Univ., Yamanashi Univ., Chuo Univ., Nihon Univ., National Defense Academy, TMRI, CRIEP, Tokyo Fire Department, Yokohama City, Fujisawa City, Edogawa-Ku/Tokyo, JR-EAST, JR-CENTRAL, Obayashi Co., Toshiba Co., Pukyong National Univ., Corolado State Univ.

15. Social Experiments on Extreme Weather Resilient Cities Target: Local Heavy Rainfall in Urban Areas Subject 1： Field Experiments TOMACS Many types of deep convection are generated in the warm season in the Tokyo Metropolitan area 【Meteorology】 To obtain new insight on mechanisms of extreme weather (1) Development of new technologies (2) Field campaign in the Tokyo area (3) Statistical analysis Understandingthe mechanism Field campaign in the Tokyo Metropolitan area New observation facilities to Issue More Accurate and Adequate Warning to Evaluate and to Adapt the Nowcasting Systems Subject 2: Early Detection and Prediction System Subject 3： Social Experiments 【Engineering】 Developments collaborating with end users (1) Extreme weather nowcasting methods (2) Development of test-beds of nowcasting systems (3) Extreme weather database • 【Sociology】 • Evaluation and adaption the developed nowcasting system • Social experiments in rescue services, risk management, infrastructure and education • Recommendations for extreme weather resilient cities Monitoring/Nowcasting System 15 Hazard Map Nowcasting

16. 2. Field campaign in TOMACS (2011-2013) MRI C-band Solid-state MP Radar Ku-band Fast Scan MP Radar MTSAT Rapid Scan 2DVD Radar Calibration site Ｘ－ＮＥＴ (NIEDS and cooperative org.) JMA Operation Doppler Radars Scintillation Meter Doppler Lidars Dense Surface Network JMA Lightning Detection Systems Microwave radiometers Wind Profilers GPS Receivers Radiosonde Relatively Cool Air Humid Warm Air A field campaign in the Tokyo metropolitan area with a dense observation network is conducted by MRI1, NIED2and 12 research institutions in the summers 2011-2013, as a testbed for deep convection. 16

17. Forecast accuracy Limit of deterministic forecast Nowcasting Cloud resolving model and data assimilation Reduce the gap between nowcasting and NWP by high-resolution data assimilation Short range forecast for precipitation Current NWP model Extrapolation 2h 6hr 1day Forecast period

18. 3．Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)

19. Cloud resolving 4DVAR with cloud microphysics (Kawabata et al., 2011; Mon. Wea. Rev.) • Kessler warm rain process was implemented in LT/ADJ models. • 4DVAR assimilation of • Doppler Radar’s Radial Winds • Radar Reflectivity • GPS precipitable water vapor • Surface observations (wind, temperature)

20. Data archive

21. 6. Liaison with the Dallas Fort Worth Urban Weather Demonstration

22. Potential partners Korea: Pugyon National University, Ewha Womans University USA: CSU, NCAR, University Georgia, CAPS/OU, Univ Massachusetts Brazil: Sao Paulo University Australia: CAWCR Austria: ZAMG Canada: EC Germany: DWD Hong Kong: HKO China: Nanjing University

23. Milestones Field campaign: Summers of 2011-2013 Symposium and Kickoff meeting • International symposium on extreme weather on Urban area 23-24, October, 2012, Tokyo (Okuyo Hall) • TOMACS RDP Kick-off Meeting 25, October, 2012, Tsukuba (MRI or NIED) RDP Proposal: April, 2013 RDP International Workshops: Autumn, 2013-2015

24. Organization International Science Steering Committee Local organization committee International Advisory Board

25. Other (possible) new projects • WG-MWFR participation in: • INCA-CE SAB • PPP project? • Proposal to cooperate with JWGFVR in ICP2 project (inter-comparison of spatial verification methods in complex terrain, using COPS (and later HYMEX SOP?) data) • Role in Lake Victoria project under consideration ?? • Role in TM-related activities under consideration JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

26. Workshop “Use of NWP in support of nowcasting” Joint WG-NR - WG-MWFR Workshop, August 2011, Boulder. Aims: • Strengthen interaction between NWP and NWC communities • Confront present and future prospects of NWP for NWC with challenges of NWC, recommendations on way forward • ~45 participants • Workshop considered necessary and useful by participants, wish expressed for follow-up workshop in a few years • Article for BAMS in preparation • More follow-up actions to be considered in WGNR – WGMWFR meeting in August 2012 JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

27. Workshop HiRCoT12 • High Resolution modelling in Complex Terrain: held in Vienna, February 2012 • Aims: review status, prospects and challenges of high-resolution modelling in complex terrain and the problems therein • Sessions on limitations in parameterizations, numerical issues, input data and initialization, and computational issues • Introductory presentations, much discussion • Participants: ~30 (mostly Eur, N Am) • WMO support requested/used to make participations more “world-wide” • “High-resolution numerical modeling in complex terrain is a hot issue, many groups have the same problems (and some have also solutions), and all this is worthwhile to be shared in the community.“ • Publication summarizing discussions and conclusions is intended. JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

28. Various other activities • Preparations for workshop on physiographic data for high-resolution NWP models (temporarily halted due to funding problems) • Organization of LAM EPS training for duty forecasters in cooperation with EUMETCAL (March 2012) • Activities aiming at promoting international exchange of radar volume data within Europe for DA purposes • Contacts EUMETNET/SRNWP and OPERA • Radar data for HYMEX SOP JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

29. Meetings/contacts • Last WG-MWFR meeting: Berlin, September 2011 • Contacts with JWGFVR • Joint meeting, Berlin, Sept 2011 • verification of clouds, extreme weather, LAM EPS, ... • Organize ICP2? • Contacts with WGNR • Workshop on use of NWP as tool in support of nowcasting • Nowcasting Symposium, Rio de Janeiro August 2012 • Common activities in FROST14, Hymex, TOMACS, INCA-CE, Lake Victoria, … • Contacts with WGNE/GASS • Grey zone experimentation • Physiography workshop • Thorpex/DAOS: WG-MWFR participation; joint activities? • TIGGE-LAM: chair ex-officio member of WG-MWFR JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

30. Actions from JSC-4 • Action 17: lessons learnt from COPS Summary in this presentation; Final report to be provided after COPS final meeting (EGU) • Action 18: status reports on Grey zone project Included in WG-report, also in WGNE presentation • Action 19: project Sochi 2014 see agenda item on FROST-14. • Action 20: joint scoping workshop NWP in nowcasting Done • Action 21: Prepare inventory of available training material Ongoing JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012