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Comprehensive Country Ranking for Renewable Energy Based Mini- Grids Providing Rural Off- Grid Electrification

Comprehensive Country Ranking for Renewable Energy Based Mini- Grids Providing Rural Off- Grid Electrification. A.-K. Gerlach, E. Gaudchau, C. Cader, Ch . Breyer 2 nd International Conference on Micro Perspectives for Decentralized Energy Supply, 2013 Berlin, February 28, 2013.

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Comprehensive Country Ranking for Renewable Energy Based Mini- Grids Providing Rural Off- Grid Electrification

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  1. Comprehensive Country Ranking forRenewable Energy Based Mini-GridsProviding Rural Off-GridElectrification A.-K. Gerlach, E. Gaudchau, C. Cader, Ch. Breyer 2nd International Conference on Micro Perspectives for Decentralized Energy Supply, 2013 Berlin, February 28, 2013

  2. Reiner Lemoine Institute Research focuses: • Integrated energysystems • Optimizationofenergysystems • Energytransitionprocesses • Off-gridenergysystems • RE-mobility • Integration ofrenewableenergiesintomobility • Renewableenergytechnology • Small wind power Reiner Lemoine Founderofthe Reiner Lemoine-Foundation Scientific researchfor an energytransitiontowards 100% renewableenergies

  3. Renewable Energy Mini-Grids Mini-gridsconsistofat least • one energy generator, • one energy storage, • one control unit, • one consumer load and • at a capacityrangeof kW – MW • Mini-grids offer ideal conditions for a grid independent electricity supply.

  4. Motivation forthe Country Ranking • renewableenergybased mini-gridsare a keyelementfor rural electrification • sustainablebusinessmodelsareneededforsupplyinghundredsofmillionsofpeople • comparisonof all countries is a helpfulindicatorforplayers in thefield

  5. Methodforthe Country Ranking • identificationofmaincriteria and respective sub-criteria • market potential • political and financialenvironment • exclusioncriteria • electrificationratesover 95 % and lessthan 200,000 people in rural areaswithoutelectricity • high politicalinstability • verylowdieselprices • weighting and scoringofeachcriterion • criteria not included • noquantificationpossible • not available on a global scale

  6. ConsequencesofExclusionCriteria: Electrification electrification rate > 95 % and rural population without electricity < 200,000 people  98 countries excluded

  7. ConsequencesofExclusionCriteria: Travel Warning travelwarningby German MinistryofForeignAffairs (April 2012):

  8. ConsequencesofExclusionCriteria: Political Stability politicalstability (worldwidegovernanceindicator) < 5thpercentile source: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/

  9. ConsequencesofExclusionCriteria: Diesel Price dieselprice < 0.25 USD/ liter Motivation (roughly): 0.25 USD/ldieselprice 0.19 €/l dieselprice 0.019 €/kWhthdieselprice 0.06 €/kWhel diesel-only

  10. Comparative Country Ranking: Criteria and Weighting • A: market potential • electrification rate [World Bank, IEA, UNDP] • rural populationwithoutaccesstoelectricity[calculated] • pump pricefordieselfuel[World Bank] • B: politicalandfinancialenvironment • politicalstability[World Bank] • corruptionperceptionsindex[TransparencyInt] • inflation[World Bank] • easeofdoingbusinessindex[World Bank] comparativeevaluationoftarget countries based on statisticdatawithregardtomarket potential plus political and financialenvironment usedcriteriaandandweightingfactors: 40 % 30 % 50 % 20 % 60 % 15 % 20 % 15 % 50 %

  11. Resultsofthe Country Ranking: All Criteria • Good political and financial environment combined with high electrification needs are to be found especially in South and East Africa.

  12. Resultsofthe Country Ranking: Sub-Criteria • Key insight: • most top countries ofmarket potential showlowrankingforpolitical and financialenvironment • and viceverca Market Potential Political and Financial Environment

  13. Resultsofthe Country Ranking top 10 countries:

  14. Rwanda – no 1 Country in the Ranking

  15. Rwanda – Summary Country Profile focussingenergysector, rural electrificationandinvestmentpossibilities • in general: • large market size • very good financial environment for foreign investors • energy sector: • urgent needs to expand capacities, much imports, high tariffs • target: 1,000 MW electric power capacity in 2017 (90 MW in 2011) • investment in energy production with methane gas (large potential in lake Kivu), hydro power, geothermal and solar power • in terms of renewable based mini-grids: • very low rural electrification rate • independent power producer are allowed to work on- or off-grid • “social tariffs need to be put in place to cater for the affordability of rural citizens” [pictures: WikimediaCommons]

  16. Summary • several countries offergoodpreconditionsfor RE-based mini-grids • top ranked countries arelocated in southern and easternAfrica • large market potential and poorpolitical and financialenvironmentareoftencoupled – and viceversa • countries havetobechecked in detailforcharacteristics not included in theranking

  17. Thanksforyourattention. … and in particulartoSMA Stiftungsverbund gemeinnützige GmbH

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