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Mr.Montri Mahaplerkpong Vice Chairman The Federation of Thai Industries

สภาอุตสาหกรรมแห่งประเทศไทย THE FEDERATION OF THAI INDUSTRIES. CLMVT Forum 2019: CLMVT as the New Value Chain Hub of Asia. Mr.Montri Mahaplerkpong Vice Chairman The Federation of Thai Industries. 23 June 2019

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Mr.Montri Mahaplerkpong Vice Chairman The Federation of Thai Industries

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  1. สภาอุตสาหกรรมแห่งประเทศไทยสภาอุตสาหกรรมแห่งประเทศไทย THE FEDERATION OF THAI INDUSTRIES CLMVT Forum 2019: CLMVT as the New Value Chain Hub of Asia Mr.MontriMahaplerkpong Vice Chairman The Federation of Thai Industries 23 June 2019 Venue: Royal Maneeya Ballroom,M Floor, Renaissance Bangkok Ratchaprasong Hotel

  2. Thai Potential Products in US and China • Thailand’s existing products to grow in US • Thailand’s existing products to grow in China • 1.Rubber Product • 2.Beverage • 3.Machineries and Parts • 4.Clothing • 5.Canned and Processing Seafood • 6.Rice • 7.Plastic Products • 1.Frozen and Processing Fruit • 2.Gems and Jewelry • 3.Cosmetic and Skin Care Products • 4.Chilled and Frozen Chicken • 5.Synthetic Rubber

  3. Thai Potential Product in US and China • Thai Product Exported to US Instead of China • Thai Product Exported to China Instead of US • 1.Cassava • 2.Rubber and Synthetic Rubber • 1.Chemical Product and Plastic Resin • 2.Automotive and Parts • 3.Coal Oil • 4.Semi-Conductor, Transistor, and Diode • 5.Machineries and Parts • 6.Electrical Appliance • 7.Plywood Sheet • 1.Processed and Fresh Fruit • 2.Processed and Frozen Seafood • (Tuna,Frozen Fish Meat) • 3.Food Additives (Spices, Food Oils, Fruit Juice, Honey) • 1.Data Processing Machine • 2.Chemical Products and Plastic Resin • 3.Automotive and Parts • 4.Electrical Appliance • 5.Ornament (Perl, Watch) • 6.Clothes and Shoes • Agricultural Products • Agricultural Products • Manufacturing Products • Manufacturing Products

  4. 1. Electrical Electronics & Air-Conditioning Cluster Impacts • Electronics products like computer and parts electric circuit, and camera can export to China in less amount. Their impacts are made by US tariff measure and products within China’s supply chain for further export to US. Million US$ -12.2% -19.6% • Opportunities and Challenges • Thailand electronic products can have the opportunity to export more to US in replace of China. • Chinese companies has a tendency to relocate their production base to Thailand to avoid the tariff measure and utilize Thai skilled workforce in electronic industry.

  5. 2. Petrochemical Cluster • Impacts • Fundamental plastic and plastic resin are used to produce toys and plastic product for further export to US. China may import less amount of these products from Thailand because China may export less to US. -13.0% -6.5% • Opportunities and Challenges • Thailand’s high quality plastic products like plastic made from decomposed cellulose and PVC plastic has the opportunity to export more to US in replace of China.

  6. 3.Natural Rubber and Rubberwood Cluster (1) • Impacts • Less amount of Thai Rubber is exported to China owing to the impact of US protection policy. This product is part of China’s supply chain for further export to US. +19.9% -13.8% • Opportunities and Challenges • China has a tendency to relocate the production base of rubber to Thailand, automotive factory. This would make advantage for Thai rubber.

  7. 3.Natural Rubber and Rubberwood Cluster (2) • Impacts • Rubber wood and wood products can export less to China because they are part of china’s supply chain • China’s applications of environmental measures way have an influence upon less export of processed wood. Million US$ -24.35% +10.17% Opportunities and Challenges • Entrepreneur way take into account the export of same product to other countries. For instance, the export of particle board to Vietnam can serve as the raw materials of furniture manufacturing for export to US.

  8. 4. Automotive Cluster • Impacts • Thailand’s auto parts can export less to China because it is part of China’s supply chain for export to US. +27.3% -50.1% • Opportunities and Challenges • There is a moreincreasing trend to export Thailand’s auto part to US in replace of China

  9. 5. Fashion & Lifestyle Cluster • Impacts • At present, this cluster has been affected by US-China trade war. In case, USA reduces the import of gem and ornament from China, it would affect the semi-raw material like colored gemstones in the form of crystallize precious stone and semi-precious stone. China has imported the semi-raw material for producing the ornament before exporting to the US. +0.7% +15.6% • Opportunities and Challenges • There is an increasing uptrend to export Thailand’s gems and ornament to the US to replace China product which is taxed.

  10. 6. Engineering Machinery and Metal Work Cluster • Impacts • The product component of machineries can export to China in the less amounts. China has been effected by US tariff measure, thereby reducing import form Thailand. +15.9% - 39.2% • Opportunities and Challenges • The positive outlooks of export in machineries and parts in US can be seen.

  11. 7. Health & Beauty Products Cluster • No impact from trade war • Opportunities and Challenges +180.1% • Cosmetics have a tendency to grow in China. The Chinese consumers favor the quality product with good image. • Moreover, same product like cosmetics, medicine, and supplementary food have the positive growth due to the China’s tariff reduction from 15.7 to 2.9 percent (as of July 2018) china

  12. 8. Food Processing Cluster No impact from Trade war +3.9% • Opportunities and Challenges • Processed and canned Seafood would grow very well in US. • It is a good trend for processed and frozen seafood like tuna and frozen fist meat to export to US in replace of China products • Frozen fruits and processed fruits have to good opportunities to grow to China in replace of US products +15.2%

  13. 9. Construction Materials Cluster • Impacts +22.1% • No impact from • Trade war -27.9% • Opportunities and Challenges • Construction materials like iron and aluminum has a tendency to grow well in US.

  14. Guideline for being prepared and adopting to trade war • Explore new markets, particularly for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) with the population of almost 50 percent of the total population, and other potential markets. • Accelerate FTAs negotiations in various frameworks such as Thailand-India FTA, and Thailand-EU FTA in order to extend trading scheme among the others.

  15. Impacts of Trade War toward ASEAN • US and China trade war was has an influence upon the overall global economy in terms of economic slowdown. This is particularly the economy of China which is a major producer of the world. This will lead to the relocation of production base to other countries in order to avoid tariff from US and reduce risks from trade war. • Chinese investors from many companies have turned to set up the production base within ASEAN so as to avoid tariff. The products which are affected included the industrial product, ICT equipment, automotive and chemical products.

  16. Impacts of Trade War toward ASEAN • CLMV countries are targeted by China for production relocation. CLMV’s labor cost is rather low, especially for clothing, shoes, and bags. Besides CLMV has received tax privileges from FTA and GSP.

  17. Impacts of Trade Wartoward CLMVT

  18. Q &A THANK YOU

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