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ECON*2100 Week 2 – Lecture 3

This lecture explores population growth through the lens of the Malthusian model, highlighting Thomas Malthus' predictions regarding food production and population dynamics. It discusses the historical demographic transitions observed in three countries from 1820 to 2009, the evolution of birth and death rates, and the implications for global resources. Additionally, the lecture contrasts views on overpopulation, addressing both concerns about resource pressure in developing countries and critiques of population control measures that disproportionately affect girls.

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ECON*2100 Week 2 – Lecture 3

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  1. ECON*2100Week 2 – Lecture 3 Population Growth

  2. World Population

  3. The Malthusian View • Malthus

  4. The Malthusian View • Malthus Number alive We regret to announce that two-thirds of you will have to drop dead. Please take a number and we will call your name shortly. Number that can be fed Maximum Sustainable

  5. Problem with the Malthusian Model • He underestimated society’s capacity to increase production of food and other essentials

  6. Problem with the Malthusian Model • He underestimated society’s capacity to increase production of food and other essentials

  7. Food output • Advances in agricultural productivity • Equipment • Plant breeding (Green Revolution) • GMO

  8. Demographic transition • 3 countries 1820-2009: • Each experiences a leveling off

  9. General pattern • Initially: High birth rate, high death rate People Population growth rate Time

  10. General pattern • Next: Birth rate stays high, but death rate falls People Population growth rate Time

  11. General pattern • Next: Birth rate falls People Population growth rate Time

  12. General pattern • Next: Birth rate falls People Population growth rate Time

  13. Britain

  14. World Population

  15. Population pyramid • Populationpyramid.net

  16. Population pyramid • Populationpyramid.net

  17. Population pyramid • Populationpyramid.net

  18. Population pyramid • Populationpyramid.net

  19. Population pyramid • Populationpyramid.net

  20. The Problem for the West • Dependency ratio

  21. Overpopulation debate The ‘pro’ overpopulation view: • 3rd World cities are teeming with crowded, overflowing slums • Pressure on resources, leading to local deforestation and pollution • As large countries like India and China industrialize, their energy use and pollution emissions will soar • The only solution is to reduce population

  22. Overpopulation debate The ‘anti’ overpopulation view: • 3rd World is urbanizing but has weak property rights rules in expanding cities • Pressure on resources arises because of primitive electricity grid. Even small populations can overexploit badly-managed resources • As large countries like India and China get wealthy, their energy use will get more efficient and pollution emissions will be better managed • Population control measures are disproportionately wiping out girl populations, causing unnecessary suffering and demographic instability

  23. Next Resources, Scarcity & Growth

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