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New Real Time Delphi Studies

New Real Time Delphi Studies. The World Bank: review of the Resource Allocation Framework of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) UNESCO: design of UN World Water Development Report Peru’s Energy and Mining Supervisory Agency: 10-year future of electricity

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New Real Time Delphi Studies

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  1. New Real Time Delphi Studies • The World Bank: review of the Resource Allocation Framework of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) • UNESCO: design of UN World Water Development Report • Peru’s Energy and Mining Supervisory Agency: 10-year future of electricity • Millennia 2015 : developments and policies to improve the status of women • World Federation of UN Associations: current relevance and issues of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. • MP: Priorities 2009-2010 • MP: Elements of the evolving economic system

  2. Recent Improvements • Ease of initiation (load sheets) • Addition of diverse inputs • radio buttons • yes/no • true/false • Identification of levels of agreement and disagreement • Question statement carries generic column heading • Simplified pricing

  3. Next RTD Steps • Student version • Promotion • A version with only qualitative inputs • Mixed row inputs • Training others

  4. Data Imputation • The problem: completing incomplete historical data sets • Fill the blanks in WDI historical data for a set of 30 countries and 28 variables over 20 years. • Used the JP7 statistical package

  5. Techniques • Raw data • Interpolation • Limits • Country by country time series • Other parameters • Regress across all countries

  6. Effect of Techniques

  7. Raw Data Examples

  8. Validation Examples

  9. Next Steps • Extend to other countries • Continue validation • Search for automated means of imputation • Create “go-no go” rules • Combine with global model

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