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Understanding the Quasibiennial Oscillation: Impacts on Climate and Forecasting

The Quasibiennial Oscillation (QBO) is a significant phenomenon occurring in the tropical stratosphere, with a period of approximately 26 months. It solely involves the zonal component of the wind and presents anomalies that propagate downward at about 1 km/month. While it is limited to deep tropics and not influenced by latitude, climate models struggle to reproduce QBO despite their accuracy in modeling Kelvin Waves. Recognizing the QBO's role in long-range forecasting and its influence on tropical cyclogenesis, as utilized by forecaster Bill Gray, is vital for understanding climate dynamics.

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Understanding the Quasibiennial Oscillation: Impacts on Climate and Forecasting

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Visualizing the QBO Jon Schrage ATS 553

  2. Quasibiennial Oscillation • Occurs in the tropical stratosphere • Only the zonal component of the wind

  3. From Climate Diagnostics Bulletin http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin/figt3.html

  4. QBO • Period = 26 months • These anomalies propagate downward at about 1 km / month

  5. http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/data_sets/qbo/

  6. Stratosphere 30mb 100mb Tropopause Troposphere

  7. QBO • Limited to the deep tropics • Not a function of latitude • Suggests that it might be a type of Kelvin Wave

  8. However: • Climate models are NOT able to produce a QBO, despite the fact that models are good at making Kelvin Waves.

  9. Current Thinking: • The radiative impacts of ozone are important in maintaining the Kelvin Wave.

  10. Why We Care: • May have impacts and implications for long range forecasting. • Has an influence on tropical cyclogenesis and is used by Bill Gray in his forecasts.

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