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Orientation

Orientation

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Orientation

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  1. Orientation Storm-Based Warnings A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS Managers by Warning Decision Training Branch

  2. Here is the Outline of the Orientation Section 1: Rationale of SBW Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Section 4: Timelines

  3. Section 1: Rationale of SBWs Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms • More specific • Increased clarity • Supports newdissemination technology Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned

  4. A Recent Example of SBW with Greater Precision and Lead Time Storm-Based Warning for Enterprise, AL TornadoMarch 1, 2007 71% Reduction ! Graphics provided by Ken Waters (PRH)

  5. An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area • Look at the size of the SVR in southern CA • SBW will significantly reduce size of warned area

  6. Delineation Improves FFWs

  7. Graphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warnings

  8. Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM Cow) http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cow/

  9. What are the Digital Dissemination Benefits of SBWs? • Eye to the future of DEAS (Digital Emergency Alert System) • Public can receive warning info on a variety of digital devices • Computers • Phones • PDAs • TV • Satellite Radio

  10. SBW Testing Already Underway • 23 Offices tested SBW ‘05 • Little change in POD • FAR 10% lower

  11. What’s New with the SBW Product? • Area hatched is described • by encoded polygon • Direction of Motion added

  12. Storm-Based Warning Challenges • Legacy Dissemination Technology is County Based • TV • NOAA Weather Radio • EAS Activation (FCC) • Siren Systems (local jurisdictional based) • Multiple Warnings in One County • Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Hard to Describe Verbally • VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs

  13. Storm-Based Warning Challenges (cont.) • How to convey uncertainties in Polygons for storm threat evolutions • Deviant movement in supercells • Pulse storms • Flash flooding

  14. ILX Bond Fayette Madison Clay STL St. Louis CWA Marion Clinton Paducah CWA St. Clair Wayne Washington Jefferson Lincoln CWA Hamilton Perry Randolph PAH Franklin Jackson Saline Williamson Challenges for SB WarningsCounty Warning Area Boundaries

  15. Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance Measures Government Performance Results Act (GPRA)Tornado Warning Performance Goals

  16. Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training “To provide training to all warning forecasters on guidance of issuing effective Storm-Based Warnings”

  17. Who Should Take the Training? • Intended Audience • NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Convective Weather Warning Responsibility • Pre-requisites • DLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course Graduate • Advanced Warning Operations Course (Core and Severe Tracks) • Deliverables • 2 hours of material on the LMS (and 1 hr of WES training ) • Printed materials with DVD

  18. What are the Learning Activities? Online Interactive Modules WES Job Sheets +

  19. Training Content Details • Using Polygons to identify threat areas for multiple storm situations • Isolated and multiple SBW TORs in close proximity • SBW TORs in lines • Flash flood SBWs (KS Turnpike Event)

  20. Training Content Details (cont.) • Polygon issues • CWA boundaries • Gaps in warnings • WarnGen limits

  21. What are Job Sheets? • Effective learning applications using mini-WES cases

  22. Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Traditional Assumption for Performance Improvement Training → Learning → Transfer = Performance

  23. A New Focus on Performance: Combination of → Performance → Results Interventions

  24. What were MIC Supports that Helped Learning and Performance? Supports Reported

  25. What Can Management Do to Help SBWs Succeed? • Ensure 100% training completion for every office • Work with User Community to prepare for Service Change • Support improved storm verification procedures • Require an annual warning skill performance assessment (using WES)

  26. Section 4: TimelinesStorm-Based Warning Implementation Schedule F M A M J J A S O N D Pilot test of training package Forecasters Complete SBW Training Training Development Oct. 1 Service Change OB 8.1 Beta New LMS released OB 8.1 Deploy 2007

  27. Who Can Help? • WDTB Administration (LMS problems, etc.) • 405-573-3321 (Linda Curtis) • sbwhelp@wdtb.noaa.gov • WDTB help on SBW training • OCWWS SBW Page • wdtb.noaa.gov

  28. Summary and Questions • SBWs will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performance • But… Success Depends on All of Us!