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Enhancing Emissions Control Strategies for Sustainable Growth

Explore emission control scenarios, including Without Measures (WoM), With Measures (WM), and With Additional Measures (WAM). Understand the economic impacts, including damage costs and growth projections. Analyze the energy sector focusing on electricity generation and potential fuel consumption.

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Enhancing Emissions Control Strategies for Sustainable Growth

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  1. TA Project: “Improving Emissions Control” Session 2 Scenarios for Emissions Management Dr Russell C Frost Project Team Leader

  2. Contents • Scenarios – an introduction • Three scenarios • Without Measures (WoM) • With Measures (WM) • With Additional Measures (WAM) • WoM Scenario • General – based on planning assumptions • Indicative potential damage costs • Example – electricity generation • WM and WAM Scenarios • Cost-benefit analysis and economic appraisal

  3. Scenarios - General • Alternative visions of the possible future considering • Population change • Economic development • Environmental management • Basis for estimating emission projections 2011 to 2025 and for identifying possible emission ceilings: NOx, NMVOCs, SO2, NH3 • They force planning assumptions to be made • Assumptions need to be assessed and reviewed

  4. Three Scenarios

  5. WoM Scenario - Population Growth • Assumption: linear annual growth in population of 1.15% of 2010 population

  6. WoM Scenario - Economic Growth (1) • Basis: • 7.5% growth in 2011, expected • 2.75% growth forecast in 2012: slowdown in European economy • Rebound to average long-run rate of growth of 4.5 % through 2013-2025

  7. WoM Scenario – Economic Growth (2)

  8. WoM Scenario – Growth in Emissions and Impacts • Economic growth without measures to curb emissions will result in emissions growth • Strength of the relationship between economic growth and emissions growth will vary between sectors • Emissions do have negative impacts on human health, agriculture and the environment • The impacts impose damage costs on society – often termed externalities because it is not the polluter who directly pays the costs

  9. Estimated Marginal Damage Costs (€/tonne emission) • Data from study undertaken for EEA, reported Nov 2011 • Marginal damage costs are at year 2005 price levels • Damage costs are related to source location and population distribution • Damage costs are regional i.e. not confined to the country source of emission – but excludes effects outside the region

  10. Indicative Additional Damage Costs Associated with WoM • Assumption: increase in emissions from 2010 is directly proportional to the forecast increase in GDP

  11. WoM – Electricity Generation (1)National Policies • National energy and related policies • Security of supply • Develop renewable sources to full economic extent – hydro, wind, geothermal, biomass, solar • Natural gas (imported) to be limited to 30% of electricity generation/supply by year 2023 • Use of domestic lignite to expand - use of imported hard coal to be constrained • Nuclear to provide 5% of supply by 2020 • Privatisation of generation and transmission systems • Energy efficiency to reduce growth in generation capacity • National Climate Change Action Plan 2011-2023

  12. Per capita electricity consumption and GDP – selected OECD (2009)

  13. WoM – Electricity Generation (2) Potential Demand & Generation • Basis and assumptions: • Association of per capita electricity consumption with per capita GDP – selected OECD countries • Growth of population and GDP in Turkey as indicated previously • Reduction in own use and electricity transmission losses from over 15 % in 2010 to 11.5 % by 2025

  14. Potential electricity generated to meet demand 2011-25

  15. WoM – Electricity Generation (3) Energy Mix to Meet Demand • Structured approach and quantitative rules: • By 2023, hydro capacity 66% of NCCAP goal; wind at 50% and geothermal at 50% • Nuclear comes on stream in 2020 to meet 5% of national demand • Natural gas: year 2010 capacity maintained – no growth • Year 2010 ratio of lignite to hard coal generation capacity maintained through to 2025 • Closure of oil-fired generation capacity • Key performance parameters: • GWh generated per unit of fuel (gas, coal, etc) • Effective number of hours/year plant runs at full capacity

  16. Performance Parameter – GWh / unit of fuel consumed

  17. Performance Parameter – Effective plant hours/year Ratio of electrical power generated (GWh) to installed capacity (GW)

  18. WoM – Electricity Generation (4) Energy Mix: 2010 vs 2023 GWh generated Percentage

  19. WoM – Electricity Generation (5) Potential Fuel Consumption ktonne/year except natural gas – million m3/year

  20. WM Scenario: With Measures

  21. WAM Scenario: With Additional Measures

  22. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) • CBA of the incremental costs and benefits provided by specific techniques and of scenarios • WM vs WoM • WAM vs WM • Costs of techniques for implementing LCPD have been collected – others to follow • Costs comprise investment and operating expenditure • Benefits recur for as long as plant are operated • Since costs and benefits arise over a period of time, CBA requires economic appraisal using discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques • TA will provide basic introduction to economic appraisal

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