2. 4 Months Prior: 17% IMR 11% U5MR 8 Months After 80% under 1 month 30% 2-11 months 420% 1-4 y.o. 5x diarhea deaths (11x Kurdistan) 4x injury deaths ’91 War

3. Medicine and Food Imports, 1989 – 2000

4. .

5. Mortality Among Under 1s and Under 5s, 1975-1999

6. Center/South

9. Cholera Cases and Deaths Reported, Basra 1998 – 2002

11. 1991-2003 343 Allied Military 56,000 Iraqi Military 3500 Direct Civilians in War 300,000 Direct Civilian Post-war 500,000 Indirect Civilian Post-War 2003-2004 666 Allied Military 9,200 Iraqi Military 3,750 Direct Civilians in War 6,470 Direct Civilians Post-War ? Indirect Civilians Post War Iraqi War –Related Deaths

13. Indirect Effects • 5 times more homicides and vehicle accidents at Baghdad morgue per month • 50% decline in visits to health centers and hospitals • fear of abduction and rape • 21% of health centers damaged • Smoking epidemic

14. Challengesto Measurement of Conflict-Related Deaths

15. Definition • Direct Deaths • Indirect Deaths • Total Excess Deaths

16. Projecting from Small Samples • ‘If this rate applied to the entire nation.....’

17. Confidence Intervals • Exceptional Cases presented as the norm

18. Appropriate Baselines and Comparisons • What would have been, in the absence of conflict • Problem of the counterfactual

19. Sorting Data Sources • Hearsay vs Observed • Service Statistics vs Population Based Information

20. Opportunities • Triangulate – Kosovo Iraq Mortality Regression Birth Weights

21. Look Where You Don’t Expect • Use Death Registry • Cuba and Serbia – Elderly Mortality