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Analyzing Eugene's Climate Patterns: Anomalies and Droughts from 2000 to Present

This analysis explores the climate events in Eugene since 2000, focusing on anomalies linked to El Niño and La Niña. While patterns of wet and dry conditions have emerged, their correlation with heat waves and cold spells remains subtle and not convincingly established. Specific instances of excessive rainfall during La Niña years and drought events in February are examined, revealing challenges in identifying long-term climate changes amid inherent cyclicity. The data from recent years suggests variability, but further confirmation is essential for understanding future trends.

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Analyzing Eugene's Climate Patterns: Anomalies and Droughts from 2000 to Present

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  1. Eugene Climate EventsSince 2000 Not very many real anomalies

  2. El Nino/La Nina Expectations • Do we see wet/dry hot/cold anomalies that line up with this pattern – not convincingly

  3. ‘heat waves”

  4. Cold Spells • These are subtle but statistically valid:

  5. Excessive La Nina Rain • January 2006: 12.71 inches • November 2006: 14.51 inches • January 2008: 8.54 inches • March 2011: 6.27 inches • And that’s about it

  6. February Drought! • 2001: 1.77 • 2002: 2.43 • 2003: 2.47 • 2005: 1.31 • 2008: 1.74 • 5 “10 % events” in the 8 years P(x) = 1 chance in 815

  7. Feb Drought Stops • Does not continue past 2008: 2009 – 4.76 inches 2010 – 4.61 inches 2011 -- 4.97 inches 2012 -- 4.05 inches This is why identifying change is so difficult in the midst of cycles.

  8. March – June Changes • 2000 – 2009: 8.9 +/ 2.1 inches • 2010 – 2011: average = 15 inches • 15 – 8.9 = 6.1 • 6.1/2.1 = 2.9 = .2% probability • Interesting but needs more years confirmation (2012 already is starting out with wet March)

  9. Water Year Drought 2000-2001: • November 2000 1.64 inches • December 2000 4.15 inches • January 2001 1.54 inches • February 2001 1.77 inches • Total 9.46 inches • Expected Total 30.73 inches!!

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