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Extremely Negative Arctic Oscillation persisting during the winter 2009

This study delves into the persistent extremely negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the winter of 2009/2010 and its subsequent effects on spring 2010. We explore the monthly mean temperature anomalies recorded during this winter and present the performance of third and fourth-week precipitation predictions made in December 2009 and February 2010. Utilizing the JRA-25/JCDAS dataset, various methodologies including high-pass filtering and the eddy flux calculations are employed to assess the contributions of eddies to the negative AO and other associated oscillations like the NAO.

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Extremely Negative Arctic Oscillation persisting during the winter 2009

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    1. Extremely Negative Arctic Oscillation persisting during the winter 2009/2010 and the spring 2010 Shingo Ushida, JMA ushida@met.kishou.go.jp (Thanks to Yuhei Takaya and Noriyuki Adachi, JMA )

    4. Monthly mean temperature in the winter 2009/2010 Monthly mean normalized temperature anomalies

    9. Performance of the Third and Fourth Week Prediction (in December 2009)

    10. Performance of the Third and Fourth Week Prediction (in February 2010)

    12. Data Set JRA-25/JCDAS (re-analysis/operational analysis data) JMA’S operational monthly ensemble forecast (50 members) Hindcast of operational monthly ensemble Model (1979-2004, five members) Eddy Butterworth high-pass filter with cutoff period 10 days Momentum flux of eddy : E-vector E=(v’2-u’2, -u’v’) Contribution of Eddy to Negative AO ???????????NAO?????????????????????????????????????????·????300hPa????6????????????????????????????????????10??Butterworth?????????????????????????????(Butterworth ??????????????(IIR?????)??????????????????FIR????????1??????????????????????) ???????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????NAO?????????????????????????????????????????·????300hPa????6????????????????????????????????????10??Butterworth?????????????????????????????(Butterworth ??????????????(IIR?????)??????????????????FIR????????1??????????????????????) ????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    13. ?y (-u’v’), U300 anomaly (December) ???1??????????300hPa?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????·??????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????PNA?NAO????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????1??????????300hPa?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????·??????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????PNA?NAO????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????

    14. Divergence of E-vector in Hindcast (December)

    15. ?y (-u’v’), U300 anomaly (February) ???300hPa???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????? ??????????????????????????????300hPa???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????? ???????????????????????????

    16. Divergence of E-vector in Hindcast (February) ????30-40N??????????? E-vector ???·?????????????????????2010?2???????????30N-40N???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????2???????????????????????????????30-40N??????????? E-vector ???·?????????????????????2010?2???????????30N-40N???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????2???????????????????????????

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