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David Smith

David Smith. The Sunday Times. China and India. The Dragon & the Elephant. They were mighty once before. And they’re becoming mighty again. A purple patch for the world economy. Global living standards are rising. Global price competition.

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David Smith

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  1. David Smith The Sunday Times

  2. China and India The Dragon & the Elephant

  3. They were mighty once before

  4. And they’re becoming mighty again

  5. A purple patch for the world economy

  6. Global living standards are rising

  7. Global price competition (a) These data have not been adjusted for missing trader intra-community (MTIC) fraud. (b) Bank estimate. Defined as food, beverages and tobacco, basic materials, fuels, semi-manufactures and other miscellaneous goods. (c) Data for 2006 are only available up to September. The full calendar year estimate has been calculated by applying the annual growth rate over this period to the 2005 level.

  8. China becomes a big oil importer

  9. Energy use and CO2 emissions

  10. Different models of development • China, export and investment-led growth • India, less open to trade and FDI • Chinese FDI 10x India – a source of strength or weakness? • Chinese emphasis on manufacturing, India on services

  11. Exports – goods and services

  12. Share of services in exports

  13. China’s trade-led growth

  14. Sector growth rates - India

  15. Sector growth rates – China

  16. FDI has been very important

  17. China still in the lead on FDI

  18. India is starting to make progress

  19. But has a long way to go on FDI

  20. The golden quadrilateral

  21. India – IT spending

  22. China versus India • Demographics • Old-style manufacturing versus IT services • How much catching-up does India have to do?

  23. India’s favourable demographics

  24. Growth and poverty reduction

  25. China’s still running hard

  26. And may have decoupled from the US

  27. India’s growth is getting stronger

  28. The world is tilting to the east

  29. China’s trade balance

  30. …. And current account surplus

  31. China’s lock on the US

  32. China and India – the future?

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