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Employment and Skills: The Indian Case

Employment and Skills: The Indian Case. Devesh Kapur September 27, 2011. Anti Power Point Party. OVERVIEW. Demographic Reality: 550 million under 25 Structure and Weaknesses of Indian Higher Education College education (“white collar”) Mid-level skill Training (“blue collar”)

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Employment and Skills: The Indian Case

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  1. Employment and Skills:The Indian Case DeveshKapur September 27, 2011

  2. Anti Power Point Party

  3. OVERVIEW • Demographic Reality: 550 million under 25 • Structure and Weaknesses of Indian Higher Education • College education (“white collar”) • Mid-level skill Training (“blue collar”) • Current Reforms and the Road Ahead

  4. India Age Demographics - 1991 509 million 15-64 age group Source: US Census Bureau

  5. India Age Demographics - 2020 888 million 15-64 age group Source: US Census Bureau

  6. Population Increases in 15-64 Age Group

  7. Public and Private Sector Formal Employment

  8. Casualization of Labour Source: NSS Employment Surveys; Subhanil Chowdhury, “Employment in India…”, EPW, Aug. 6, 2011

  9. Labour Force Participation (%)Principal Status Source: Himanshu, “Employment Trends in India,” EPW, Sep. 10, 2011

  10. Labour Force Participation 1993-1994 2009-2010 Source: Partha Mukhopadhyay

  11. Employment by Occupation (2009-2010) Source: NSS Employment Surveys; Subhanil Chowdhury, “Employment in India…”, EPW, Aug. 6, 2011

  12. Rapid growth of student enrolment in India • INDIA • 1950/51: 27 Universities, 578 Colleges • 2009: 504 Universities , 25,951 Colleges, 14 million students enrolled Devesh Kapur, CASI

  13. Weaknesses in Higher Education and Skills Development in India • Systemic • Dualism reflecting hierarchical status-conscious society with no ladders for vertical mobility between high status college education and low status “vocational education” • Regulation • Internal Governance • Faculty

  14. MISMATCHES • Demand-supply mismatch • Credentials-Skills mismatch • Aspirations-Occupations Mismatch

  15. Indian Civil Services Exam Source: Union Public Service Commission

  16. Political Economy of Higher Education • Higher Education is an important arena of distributional conflicts • Centralized regulation provides fertile ground for rent-seeking and patronage politics • Supply of quality institutions is severely lagging demand • Poor quality leading to diminished signaling and degree inflation • The few institutions that signal quality enjoy enormous brand-rents • Quality: high variance and low mean • Entrenched mediocrity in most faculty • Exceeding weak culture of research • Access and Equity exacerbated by failures at primary and secondary level Devesh Kapur, CASI

  17. Structure of Higher Education Regulation

  18. Structure of Higher Education Regulation

  19. Obstacles to reform • PATRONAGE IN PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS • INCUMBENT BENEFICIARIES • POLITICALLY CONNECTED HIGHER EDUCATION ENTREPRENEURS • ELITE FLIGHT TO OVERSEAS INSTITUTIONS • KEY ARENA FOR DISTRIBUTIONAL CONFLICTS

  20. Formal Government Skill Development Programs Source: Megha Aggarwal, “Skill Development in India,” 2011.

  21. Limitations in India’s Skill Development Framework

  22. National Skill Development Corporation INITIATIVE • Launched in 2010 as PPP to create 150MM skilled workers by 2022 • Indian Industry: 51%; Government: 49% • Primary mandate - incentivise private sector participation: • Developing curriculum; Delivery of training; Quality assurance; Placement • Other responsibilities – monitoring and evaluation, facilitate “train the trainer” institutes • Current progress: • 30 training projects approved to train 55MM people • Mapping skill gaps for 20 high growth sectors and the unorganized sectors • 28 autonomous sector specific councils (SSCs) Source: Megha Aggarwal, “Skill Development in India,” 2011

  23. Future of Higher Education? Non traditional higher education developments Private providers increasingly dominant Overseas higher education (elites) Corporate campuses and workforce training Devesh Kapur, CASI

  24. The Trilemma: Scale, Cost and Quality • Scale: 12th Plan targets a GER of 20% (from about 14% currently) ~ 2 million additional students. What will be the quality of this labor force? • The global hunt for talent: Where are the faculty? • Is Traditional University Education Oversold? • Skilling vs degrees • Will there be innovation in Higher Education itself? Devesh Kapur, CASI

  25. Gender Ratio (15-64 age group) Source: US Census Bureau

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