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Fatality Modeling and PEER Testbeds: Insights from the Casulty Project Kickoff

The PEER Testbeds Casualty Project, initiated on January 27, 2003, at UCLA, focuses on advancing casualty modeling in seismic design. Key topics include a brief history of seismic design evolution from the absence of codes pre-1924 to the adoption of performance-based engineering in the 1990s. The presentation outlines the PEER PBEE methodology, decision variables (dollars, deaths, downtime), and the various requirements for effective fatality modeling, emphasizing the significance of damage measures, occupancy patterns, and available search and rescue resources.

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Fatality Modeling and PEER Testbeds: Insights from the Casulty Project Kickoff

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Fatality Modeling and the PEER Testbeds Shoaf and Seligson Casualty Project Kickoff UCLA CPHD 27 January 2003 Keith Porter, California Institute of Technology

  2. Casualty Modeling in PEER • Brief history of seismic design • PEER PBEE methodology • PEER decision variables • PEER testbeds • PEER fatality modeling requirements

  3. 2-minute History of Seismic Design • Before 1924, no code for seismic design • 1920s: allowable stress design (ASD) [ Resistance/Demand factor of safety ]  OK • 1980s: load and resistance factor design (LRFD) [ fR gD ]  [ Pf acceptable Pf ]  OK • 1990s+: performance-based engineering (PBE) [ Performance ≥ Demands ]  OK

  4. PEER PBEE

  5. PEER Decision Variables Dollars Deaths Downtime

  6. PEER Testbeds Ages, systems, damage measures, stakeholders & decision variables

  7. Requirements of the Fatality Model p[D deaths | DM, &] • DM: damage measures – which ones? • &: what else matters? • Structural system • Occupancy numbers, patterns, demographics • Search and rescue resources • … • Illustrate for Van Nuys

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