Demography is the study of the characteristics and trends of the human population. Your demography is your future.

1. Demography is the study of the characteristics and trends of the human population. Your demography is your future.

2. Ottumwa is a “HUB” community in a Ten County Southern Iowa Region and will reflect its region’s demographics.

3. Population Density - 200o Census

4. Miners used to routinely take a caged canary in mines to help detect the presence of FATAL gases. If the gases were present the canary would die first and the miners knew to get out of the shaft.

5. An analogy can be drawn between the proverbial “Miner’s Canary Cage”, and the demography of our region and Ottumwa.

6. Planning a community Economic Development strategy is much like taking care of one’s health it requires a serious self examination….

7. Before an autopsy is required !

8. National, State & Regional Trends

9. Using Census Data a Typology was created that groups all 50 states by whether they are “Magnets”(attracts adults moving in) or “Sticky (retains adults). Note: Connecticut, Hawaii, New Jersey & Oklahoma were neutral fits.

10. High Magnet/High Sticky • Arizona • Florida • Georgia • Maryland • North Carolina • Oregon • South Carolina • Tennessee • Virginia • Washington High Magnet/Low Sticky • Alaska • Arkansas • Colorado • DC • Idaho • Kansas • Montana • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Mexico • Vermont • Wyoming

11. Low Magnet/High Sticky • Alabama • California • Illinois • Indiana • Kentucky • Louisiana • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Missouri • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Texas • Utah • Wisconsin Low Magnet/Low Sticky • IOWA • Maine • Mississippi • Nebraska • New York • North Dakota • Rhode Island • South Dakota • West Virginia

12. Iowa ranks 46th in Magnet characteristics & 35th in Sticky characteristics -according to Pew.

13. Iowa’s population growth of 25.7 % during the last 100 years is the lowest growth rate in the nation. • In 1900, Iowa was the 10th most populous of the states, by 2008, Iowa ranked 30th. • Since 1950 only two states (North Dakota, West Virginia) had a smaller population growth rate.

14. Iowa ranks 50thamong states in retaining college graduates, with fewer than 50% opting to stay in state. Wisconsin retains 80% of its college graduates.

15. The Only State in the Nation NotTo Grow by 50% or More Since 1900

16. The number of people in Iowa aged 75 years or older have increased each of the last five decades. Data from the 2000 Census indicates Iowa had more residents 75 years old or older than children under age 5 . • Projections indicate that Iowa’s population will continue to grow slowly and age. • Iowa has 792 communities that have less than 2,000 residents. They have 10 communities with 50,000 or more. • 75 counties had declining population since 2000.

17. National Center for Education Statistics reports high school student migration. “According to the NCES, Iowa ranks first among the seven upper-Midwestern states in net attraction of out of state high school students to its colleges in a 2008 report. The states include: Iowa (8,632), Missouri (2,487), South Dakota (606), Nebraska (191), Wisconsin (-82), Minnesota (-2,222), Illinois (-4,913). -IOWA COLLEGE AID COMMISSION

18. Iowa ranks 4th nationally in net attraction of out of state high school seniors, behind Arizona (23,329), Pennsylvania (15,329) and Florida (9,713) -IOWA COLLEGE AID COMMISSION

19. There are 128,000 “AT RISK” youth identified in Iowa between the ages of 16-24 that do not possess relevant skills and may never obtain them. • In Iowa there are another 255,000 “ AT RISK”students already identified between ages 5-14. Most of these youth are economically disadvantaged. • Only 7%of low income students will ever earn a college degree.

20. Serious needs dictated by challenging trends

21. POPULATIONGROWTH TREND COMPARISON BY %-2000>2009(SOURCE:US CENSUS BUREAU)

22. SCHOOL POPULATION IN THE INDIAN HILLS 10 COUNTY REGION

23. OTTUMWA SCHOOL POPULATION TREND 1994-2010

24. 2008 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME COMPARISONS(SOURCE:US CENSUS BUREAU)

25. % of Population Below the Poverty Level-2009

26. In the Fall of 2009 there were several schools in the GPAEA that had more than 50% of their students qualify for “free & reduced lunch”. The average for the region is 40%.

27. ETHNIC POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS IN IOWA2000 > 2008

28. ETHNIC POPULATION TRENDS IN INDIAN HILLS REGION 2000 > 2008

29. MEDIAN HOME VALUE COMPARISONS-2000(SOURCE:US CENSUS BUREAU)

30. Building Permits Per County-2009(One county had zero, two counties had 1 and one county had 2)

31. % of Population over age 25 that has a H.S. degree-(SOURCE: 2000 US CENSUS BUREAU)

32. % of Population > age 25 with a Bachelor’s degree(source: 2000 US Census)

33. % of Population Under Age 18-2009

34. % of Population Over Age 65-2009

35. WEALTH TRANSFER • “Older Americans will transfer between $40 and $150 trillion of net worth to the baby boomer generation by the year 2040- an historic intergenerational wealth transfer.” The Iowa Vitality Center, Iowa State University • The transfer of wealth from this area is happening now. Most people leave their estates to their descendents who now live in places other than southern Iowa.

36. Projected Wealth Transfer from the Indian Hills Region-(SOURCE: COMMUNITY VITALITY CENTER, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY)

37. $20 Billion leaving our Ten County Region from 2000-2049

38. LARGE SCHOOL TAX VALUATION COMPARISON-FY2009 (IN MILLIONS)

39. Our demography tells us that we have: -few financial resources that continue to leak from our region; -A declining school (youthful) population that is increasingly “at risk”, -An increasing elderly population that will require more services in the near future,

40. -Low tax valuation that leads to underfunded educational opportunities and infrastructure challenges for our municipalities, -An under skilled and increasingly diverse workforce , -A higher than normal rate of poverty and unemployment. However:

41. We do have key elements that are aligning to create positive synergy: -An emerging community foundation with resources that create great potential. -Terrific infrastructure and transportation facilities. -New private sector leadership with interest and commitment toward community betterment. -An opportunity for new leadership in economic development.

42. An expanded commitment from Indian Hills to: -build a new Business Incubator with an array of support services for new and expanding businesses , -create training opportunities for “at risk” youth. -create a First in the Nation model Workforce Campus to provide coordinated services for “up-skilling” of the workforce.

43. A Regional Strategy to stem the tide.

44. The Regional Career Academy Concept: • Programs are developedlocallyin conjunction with your school district & local employers based on industry & community needs. • A key component is sharing of resources. • These programs provide a “career/alternative pathway” for high school students. • Students receive a high school diploma and college credit toward an Associates Degree.

45. Regional Academy Concept & Pathways: HIGH SCHOOL REGIONAL ACADEMY- LOCALIZED TRAINING TO ADDRESS LOCAL WORKFORCE NEEDS Job Corps College Workforce

46. A host of services to accommodate and nurture growth! An Engaged Workforce In Tune with local needs: Regional High School Programs that engage and train students early for the workforce. Quality Technical & Customized training for existing and start –up industries through Indian Hills Community College. Assistive services for displaced workers (Workforce Development, Workforce Investment Act, Promise Jobs, Voc. Rehab, Job Corps) Support services for New Business Starts (Small Business Dev. Center, Rural Entrepreneurial & Leadership Institute, Revolving Loan Funds, Incubator Space, Pro-Bono legal and Accounting services)

47. The Indian Hills North- *Workforce Campus

48. “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago!” “The next best time is NOW!” -Theodore Roosevelt

49. The time to act is NOW, in order to take advantage of community synergies that currently exist. We cannot afford to wait for the next opportunity…………….. IT MAY NEVER OCCUR AGAIN!

50. Brady’s video