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Microdata and the Future of Historical Family Demography

Microdata and the Future of Historical Family Demography. Univac 1105 at Census, 1960. The First Microdata: The 1960 Census Samples . Distributed on 13 Univac Tapes (or 18,000 punchcards ). Cover, 1960 Census Microdata Codebook . The 1970 Public Use Samples.

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Microdata and the Future of Historical Family Demography

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  1. Microdata and the Future of Historical Family Demography

  2. Univac 1105 at Census, 1960

  3. The First Microdata: The 1960 Census Samples Distributed on 13 Univac Tapes (or 18,000 punchcards) Cover, 1960 Census Microdata Codebook

  4. The 1970 Public Use Samples • 60 times the size of 1960 • Much more detail • (especially geography) • 1960 sample expanded 10-fold • Same format and coding as 1970 • Led to an explosion of research on • change

  5. Khartoum, CBS-Sudan

  6. 1973 Census Tapes arrive at Muller Media (New York) via Barcelona

  7. Dhaka, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

  8. National historical* microdata collections, 1978-1983: number of person records Preston, 1900 USA Darroch and Ornstein, 1871 Canada * historical means before 1960

  9. National historical microdata collections, 1978-2002: number of person records IPUMS, 1850-1920 USA Winsborough, 1940 and 1950 USA Sager and Baskerville, 1901 Canada Anderson, 1851 Britain

  10. National historical microdata collections, 1978-2011: number of person records Inwood and Jack, 1891 Canada; Dillon, 1852 Canada; Garðarsdóttir, 1801-1901 Iceland; + Norway, Scotland, Sweden, USA IPUMS, 1880 USA and Dillon, 1881 Canada Schürer and Woollard, 1881 England and Wales; Thorvaldsen, et al. 1900 Norway

  11. National historical microdata collections, 1978-2015: number of person records USA 1940 Ancestry.Com, USA 1850-1930 Scotland Schürer, 1851-1911 England and Wales

  12. IDS/EHPS

  13. Mosaic

  14. Major New National Projects • The China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset • Norwegian Historical Population Registers • Sweden POPLINK • Netherlands LINKS • Great Britain I-CeM

  15. Facebook has data on 800 million people We have data on 912 million people

  16. Facebook has data on 800 million people In a few more years, it will double again

  17. Participating Countries

  18. The Power of Microdata Age classification for school enrollment in published U.S. Census Customized measures: Variables based on combined characteristics of family and household members, capitalizing on the hierarchical structure of the data Multivariate analysis: Analyze many individual, household, and community characteristics simultaneously Interoperability: Harmonize data across time and space

  19. Why Do We Need Historical Microdata? Space and Time • Fine-grained contextual analysis of processes of change • Microdata allows interoperability across time and place • Can merge population data with data from other sources, hinging on geography • Data mining can exploit large scale

  20. Three Points • We should use appropriate measures • We should study spatial variation • We should study long-run historical change

  21. Spatial Analysis John Hajnal The “Hajnal Line”

  22. 2009 1972

  23. The Great Family Transition • Decline of intergenerational coresidence • Rise of marital instability • Separation of fertility and marriage • Rise of cohabitation and solitary residence • Decline of marriage • Increasing signs that these changes may be global in scope

  24. Ideational Theory • Rise of individualism • Secularization • Norms and values have a life of their own

  25. Percent of the Labor Force Employed in Agriculture, United States, 1800-2000

  26. Structural Change • Norway: % in commercial and industrial occupations rose from 13% in 1801 to 42% in 1900 • U.S. and Norway: % of women in wage-labor jobs doubled from 1870 to 1900

  27. Power, Patriarchy, and Structural Change • Individual-level incentives and constraints • Wage labor shifted balance of power • Fathers and sons • Men and women • Structural transformation undermined patriarchal authority

  28. Coale: Ready, Willing, and Able • Must be within “calculus of conscious choice” • Must be advantageous • Must be possible

  29. Agenda for Investigating the Family Transition • Assess family choices at the individual level • Describe the geography and chronology of family change • Trace spatial associations between measures of family change and secularization • Compare the family transition to the fertility transition at the level of families, communities, economic and cultural regions • Use comparative longitudinal sources to evaluate material incentives for family transitions • Use multi-level analysis with complete-count data to assess impact of local economic opportunities and conditions on family decisions

  30. Definitions (United Nations 2001) • Family: A group of people residing in the same household who recognize a kin relationship, ordinarily through descent, marriage, or adoption • Household: Person or group of people who live together and make common provision for food or other essentials for living • Kin group: A group of people who recognize a relationship through descent, marriage, or adoption

  31. Scope of Family Demography (Cherlin 2003) • The configuration of families, households, and kin groups • Transitions that affect those configurations Such transitions include departure from parental home, marriage, marital dissolution, cohabitation

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