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State of the Space Insurance Industry: Trends, Challenges, and Future Directions

This report outlines the current state of the space insurance industry, addressing recent developments, challenges, and market trends. Key topics include third-party liability insurance, the impact of recent launch failures such as Proton, and the surge of debris events in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Additionally, it highlights profitability issues, losses exceeding premiums, and the market's response to capacity fluctuations. A special focus is given to emerging topics in commercial human spaceflight insurance and ongoing legislative initiatives.

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State of the Space Insurance Industry: Trends, Challenges, and Future Directions

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  1. RMWG OutbriefOctober 11, 2007 Chris Kunstadter Vice President XL Insurance (+1) 212-321-6510 chris.kunstadter@xlgroup.com

  2. Agenda • The state of the space insurance industry • RMWG Topics

  3. Recent Issues in Space Insurance • Third-Party (Liability) Insurance • Impact of Proton failure • Chinese ASAT test • First-Party (Physical Damage) Insurance • Losses in 2007 exceed premium • Delays in Sea Launch and Proton launches

  4. Proton Launch Failure in Kazakhstan

  5. Recent Debris Events in LEO Chinese ASAT Test, 11 Jan. Estimated debris >5-10 cm from Jan & Feb 2007 breakup events: FY-1C (Jan 11): >2,200 pieces Beidou 2A (Feb 2): 100 pieces Proton Aux Motor (Feb14): 60 pieces CBERS 1 (Feb18): 24 pieces Briz-M stage (Feb19): 1,000 pieces www.centerforspace.com Breeze-M Explosion, 19 Feb. Proton Aux Motor Explosion, 14 Feb. www.st-suunnittelu.fi/romu/

  6. The Insurance Market Cycle Profitability Profits Rise Increased Capacity Rates Increase Seek Market Share Flight to Quality Relaxed Underwriting Hard Market Soft Market Capacity Decrease Rates Decrease Insolvencies/Withdrawals Inadequate Rates You are here? Inadequate Reserves Mounting Losses

  7. Insured Launches

  8. Market Exposure In Orbit

  9. Launch Vehicle Failure RatesCurrent GEO launch vehicles* Average * Current GEO launch vehicles included in this survey are: Ariane 5, Atlas 5, Delta 4, H-2A, Long March 3A/B/C, Proton M/Breeze M, Soyuz Fregat & Soyuz 2, Zenit 3/SL

  10. Satellite Failure RatesCommercial communications satellites1st year (i.e., “post-separation/IOT” phase)By manufacturer*, since 1997 15.8% Average * Major “Western” manufacturers of commercial communications satellites included in this survey are AAS, Antrix, Astrium, Boeing, LM, Loral, Orbital

  11. Satellite Failure RatesCommercial communications satellites2nd & subsequent years (i.e., “in-orbit” phase)By manufacturer*, since 1997 Average * Major “Western” manufacturers of commercial communications satellites included in this survey are AAS, Antrix, Astrium, Boeing, LM, Loral, Orbital

  12. Split of Claims Between Launch and In-Orbit Phases

  13. Annual Premiums and Losses

  14. Total Cumulative Return for Space Insurance Market(since 1998)

  15. RMWG Topics • Commercial human spaceflight task force • Subgroup of RMWG • Brainstorming and developing agenda for topics to be brought to the full RMWG • Specifically looking at human spaceflight issues • Ongoing effort

  16. Topics for further study • Requirements and availability of insurance for personal space flight • FAA safety regulation of human space flight • Inter-party waivers of liability • State-based legislative initiatives • MPL calculation methodologies • Definition of third parties under concurrent operations • Application of industry standards

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