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Rental supply and housing affordability: Gender implications

Rental supply and housing affordability: Gender implications. Judy Yates University of Sydney. Investment in affordable and accessible rental housing workshop 28 February 2011. Overview. Structural trends and outcomes for housing market as a whole at an Australia wide level Gender specifics

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Rental supply and housing affordability: Gender implications

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  1. Rental supply and housing affordability: Gender implications Judy Yates University of Sydney Investment in affordable and accessible rental housing workshop 28 February 2011

  2. Overview • Structural trends and outcomes for housing market as a whole at an Australia wide level • Gender specifics • Issues arising • Policy responses

  3. Australia wide context Pressure on house prices and housing affordability is structural not cyclical Contributed to decline in home ownership amongst younger FHBs In past decade, supply has not responded adequately to meet increased demand Combined effect puts pressure on rental market with resultant high incidence of rental stress

  4. House prices have risen faster than incomes… Source: Treasury, ABS

  5. Falling interest rates Inflationary era; two income households CGT: investor concession CGT: O-O exemption Financial deregulation, High and steady growth Deposit gap has increased dramatically…. Source: ABS, RBA

  6. Pressures exacerbated by inadequate supply… 1990 2000 2010 Source: NHSC Figure 4.1, based on unpublished ANZ data

  7. Has resulted in supply shortage… Source: National Housing Supply Council 2010, Table 4.4

  8. Few houses built or sold in 2007-08 were affordable for households with incomes at 3rd decile….. Source: NAHA Indicators, 2010, Table 2.1

  9. HO rates for young have declined…. Source: Yates et al (2008)

  10. HO declines most severe in capitals…. Source: from ABS census data collected by Yates et al (2008)

  11. Impact on private rental market…. Increased demand from households who previously moved into HO as FHBs Increased pressure from higher capacity to pay by potential FHBs

  12. Rental affordability has declined…. AFTS Report v2, p 414

  13. Proportion of private renter households in rental stress, 2007-08 Single Q1< ~$20K Q2< ~$30K; Sole parent+2 children Q1< ~ $30K Q2< ~$46K; Couple Q1 < ~$28K Q2< ~$43K; Couple +2 children Q1 < ~$38K Q2< ~$61K Source: ABS SIH 2007-08

  14. Private renter stress projected to worsen Source: Yates et al (2008)

  15. Private rental trends 1996, 2001, 2006 Census data, CPI adjusted

  16. Rental housing: absolute shortage, Australia Source: NHSC, 2008, Figure 5.9

  17. Shortage rental dwellings Note: a + indicates a surplus; a - indicates a shortage Source: National Housing Supply Council, 2008 Report, Table 5.1; 2010 Report, Table 5.3, 5.4

  18. Shortage rental dwellings Note: a + indicates a surplus; a - indicates a shortage Source: National Housing Supply Council, 2008 Report, Table 5.1; 2010 Report, Table 5.3, 5.4

  19. Shortage rental dwellings Note: a + indicates a surplus; a - indicates a shortage Source: National Housing Supply Council, 2008 Report, Table 5.1; 2010 Report, Table 5.3, 5.4

  20. Shortage rental dwellings Note: a + indicates a surplus; a - indicates a shortage Source: National Housing Supply Council, 2008 Report, Table 5.1; 2010 Report, Table 5.3, 5.4

  21. Social Housing Projections: Aus Social rental dwellings needed to keep pace with household growth 150,000 dwellings Social rental stock 90,000 dwellings Source: National Housing Supply Council (2010, Figure 4.7)

  22. Social Housing Projections: Aus Social rental dwellings needed to keep pace with household growth 150,000 dwellings Social rental stock 90,000 dwellings Source: National Housing Supply Council (2010, Figure 4.7)

  23. What are the key housing challenges for Australia? Declining access to home ownership for middle income households Inadequate supply of affordable and accessible housing for lower income and vulnerable households

  24. Who is most affected?Housing stress: female head h’hold by tenure Private renter Home purchaser Social renter Source: ABS Survey of Income and Housing, 2007-08, basic CURF data

  25. Who is most affected?Mortgage stress : female head h’hold by age 25-34 years 55-64 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 65+ years Source: ABS Survey of Income and Housing, 2007-08, basic CURF data

  26. Who is most affected?Rental stress: female head h’hold by age 55-64 years 45-54 years 25-34 years 65+ years 35-44 years Source: ABS Survey of Income and Housing, 2007-08, basic CURF data

  27. What are the key housing challenges for Australia? Declining access to home ownership for middle income households Inadequate supply of affordable and accessible housing for lower income and vulnerable households

  28. Observations • The private rental market has not produced an adequate supply of affordable rental housing for current needs. • The demand for affordable rental housing will increase in the next few decades with female headed households being particularly vulnerable. • Current initiatives to address this problem have been either cyclical (SHI) or vulnerable (NRAS).

  29. What happens when there is a shortfall?... Prices and rents increase Housing stress increases Household formation slows Household size increases Households find insecure or temporary accommodation Households become homeless…

  30. Workshop objectives • To highlight the need for expansion of affordable and accessible rental housing • To place a gender analysis of access to affordable rental housing on the agenda for government, investors and providers • To stimulate discussions on ways to address the current challenges and investment short-falls

  31. Any questions?

  32. Supplementary data - not for presentation

  33. Wealth distribution by tenure and age Owner-occupiers Other households 33

  34. Proportion of female headed households in mortgage stress, 2007-08 Single Q1< ~$20K Q2< ~$30K; Sole parent+2 children Q1< ~ $30K Q2< ~$46K; Couple Q1 < ~$28K Q2< ~$43K; Couple +2 children Q1 < ~$38K Q2< ~$61K Source: ABS Survey of Income and Housing, 2007-08, basic CURF data

  35. Proportion of female headed households in rental stress, 2007-08 Single Q1< ~$20K Q2< ~$30K; Sole parent+2 children Q1< ~ $30K Q2< ~$46K; Couple Q1 < ~$28K Q2< ~$43K; Couple +2 children Q1 < ~$38K Q2< ~$61K Source: ABS Survey of Income and Housing, 2007-08, basic CURF data

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