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Health Roundtable Workshop Predicting Patient Flow

Health Roundtable Workshop Predicting Patient Flow. 30 March 2007. Agenda. External Pressure. Why so frustrated?. Knowledge. Funding Caps. Technology. Service Demand. Health Sector. Public Hospital funding share continues to decline – now below 35%. Hospital Epicentre.

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Health Roundtable Workshop Predicting Patient Flow

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  1. Health Roundtable WorkshopPredicting Patient Flow 30 March 2007

  2. Agenda

  3. External Pressure Why so frustrated? Knowledge Funding Caps Technology Service Demand Health Sector

  4. Public Hospital funding share continues to decline – now below 35% Hospital Epicentre

  5. Little new overnight bed capacity added to the system in a decade Hospital Epicentre Source: AIHW Hospital Statistics, Table 2.3

  6. Most growth has been in same-day admissions … Hospital Epicentre

  7. … while public hospital bed nights have dropped almost 1% per year Hospital Epicentre

  8. Increases in Emergency medical patients have led to reductions in Elective surgical patients Hospital Epicentre Emergency up 600 beds Elective down 760 beds Source: HRT, Bed Occupancy.xls

  9. An additional 1.8 million bed nights (5,000 beds) will be needed by 2011 Predictions • Due to elderly growth + population growth at current levels of hospital usage • ... Creating more strain on public and private hospital systems Source: AIHW, ABS, Chappell Dean analysis – same-day stays excluded from calculations

  10. Alternative is to make dramatic reductions in elderly length of stay Predictions • 17% reduction in acute length of stay for elderly • Overall 6% reduction needed to keep occupancy at current levels

  11. Basic Coping Strategies • Predict and balance emergency / elective demand • Shift demand to other providers (Primary care, Subacute) • Tailor hospital capacity to fit demand patterns • Reduce delays in patient journey to shorten overall time in hospital

  12. New Zealand Examples - Christchurch - Auckland

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