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Computer-Assisted Pest Risk Analysis

Computer-Assisted Pest Risk Analysis. A.N. Auclair, D.O. Oryang, R.D. Magarey, and D.M. Borchert presented at International Plant Health Risk Analysis Workshop October 24-28 2005 Niagara Falls Canada USDA APHIS PPQ, PPD Commodity Risk Assessment. Three Points.

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Computer-Assisted Pest Risk Analysis

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  1. Computer-Assisted Pest Risk Analysis A.N. Auclair, D.O. Oryang, R.D. Magarey, and D.M. Borchert presented at International Plant Health Risk Analysis Workshop October 24-28 2005 Niagara Falls Canada USDA APHIS PPQ, PPD Commodity Risk Assessment

  2. Three Points 1. What is driving computer “automation” of PRA process 2. Why repeated failure in early 1990s -- lessons learnt at APHIS 3. New Design for PRA Systems – a vision for Year 2015

  3. Lessons Learnt at APHIS • The concept of “computer-automation of PRA” is inaccurate – it is computer-facilitation of data access and data search. The analysis still done by the risk analyst • Risk analyst adds value through a lot of intelligent interpretation • Blackbox and rigid structures of early systems was too restrictive— “I can do better that the tool can do…” • Build system that meets ISPM requirements and APHIS standards but highly compatible with risk analyst needs and capabilities

  4. In all government agencies – “there is a real vacuum in information management” “there is intense interest in finding better systems of processing data and making it readily available to decision makers ...”

  5. Design for 2015 • “you design it – you use it ” format • distributed databases with feedback • web-mediated -- hyperlinks • software modules (@Risk, ArcGIS) • decision support systems • mitigation (multiple end-users)

  6. Current PRA Issues (Table 1 #10)“ … have not done a good job”.(Simberloff 2005)“…. it is crucial to evaluate the effectiveness of risk assessments and to scrutinize the consequences of current policy and its alternatives”.(Simberloff et al 2005)

  7. APHIS resources trend

  8. Planned APHIS Activities in 2006 1. Computer-Facilitated PRA (e.g., EU-25 Wood) 2. Ergonomics of CPHST Risk Analyst Workforce 3. APHIS Workshop on “Intelligent PRA Systems”

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