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WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008

Rob McNamee 678 – 393 - 9702 rob.mcnamee@comcast.net. Axford Consulting LP. This Web posting is free for the personal use of persons who paid to attend the 2008 WTUI conference. Distribution to non-registered attendees is prohibited.

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WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008

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  1. Rob McNamee 678 – 393 - 9702 rob.mcnamee@comcast.net Axford Consulting LP This Web posting is free for the personal use of persons who paid to attend the 2008 WTUI conference.Distribution to non-registered attendees is prohibited. If your business has a need for market data or forecasting for turbomachinery industry, please contact: Mark Axford 713 – 802 – 9654 maxford@attglobal.net WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008

  2. Axford Consulting LP GT Market Review of 2007 WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008

  3. Before We Begin….. How many WTUI attendees feel that GT orders for 2007 were: - Higher than 2006 ? - Lower than 2006 ? Axford Consultants LP April 2008 2008

  4. GT Orders Summary - 2007 • Worldwide orders up 44% from 2006 from 48,827mw to 70,121 • Extraordinary level of orders from Saudi and other Middle East countries • US Gas Turbine orders down 12% : 2006 = 6598 mw 2007 = 5801 mw Axford Consultants LP April 2008 2008

  5. Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 1975 - 2007 . > 3mw unit size 1975-1989 >10mw unit size 1990-2007 Reported Orders MW Prepared by Axford Consultants LP April 2008

  6. GT orders –Middle East Only 1980 - 2007 . > 3mw unit size 1975-1989 >10mw unit size 1990-2007 Reported Orders MW Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008

  7. Gas Turbines – US Only 1980 - 2007 . > 3mw unit size 1975-1989 >10mw unit size 1990-2007 Reported Orders MW Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008

  8. Gas Turbines – US Only 1980 - 2007 . > 3mw unit size 1975-1989 >10mw unit size 1990-2007 Reported Orders MW 2000 -2001 bubble truncated for clarity Since 2003 Mid EastGT orders 3X of US Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008

  9. Gas Turbines – US Only 2002 - 2007 . Reported US Orders >10mw GT unit size MW 40% Orders annual growth in orders since 2003 mkt bottom 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008

  10. 2007 Worldwide GT Orders 70121 mw MiddleEast Africa Asia N. Amer Australia Latin Amer Europe Prepared by Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008

  11. Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007 . Reported Orders >10 MW Unit Size MW 27% 26% 36% 46% 49% 44% Axford Consulting LP Apr08 Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

  12. Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007 . Aeros vs Frames MW 12% 10% 10% 88% 90% 34% 90% 90% Axford Consulting LP April 2008 Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

  13. Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007 Aeros vs Frames . Less than 60 mw Only MW 57% 60% 49% 43% 40% 51% Axford Consulting LP Apr 2008 Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

  14. 2007 Worldwide Frame GT Orders 61715 mw (Up 31% from 2006) Africa MiddleEast Asia N. Amer Australia Latin Amer Europe Prepared by Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008

  15. N. Amer Frame GT Orders - 2007 Axford Consultants LP April 2008

  16. 2007 Worldwide Aero GT Orders 8407 mw (up 52% from 2006) Australia Asia Europe Africa Latin Amer MiddleEast 30% N. Amer Prepared by Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008

  17. N. Amer Aero GT Orders -2007GE Wins 1506 MW Axford Consultants LP April 2008

  18. N. Amer Aero GT Orders -2007Pratt & Rolls win 1422 MW Axford Consultants LP April 2008

  19. Year 2007 - US Market ( 5801mw )Gas Turbine Orders by Unit Size 2889 2024 50% 888 35% 15% 0 10 - 25mw 125 - 254 mw 26 - 55mw 56 - 125mw

  20. Combined Simple Year 2007 - US Market ( 5801mw )GT Orders -Simple vs Combined Cycle 41% 59% Axford Consultants LP April 2008

  21. Year 2004 - 2007 - US MarketGT Orders - Simple vs Combined Cycle Higher Gas Price = More Simple Cycle Simple Combined Axford Consulting LP April 2008 Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

  22. So what’s the forecast for turbine orders in 2008

  23. Reported Orders >10 MW Unit Size Gas Turbines – 2008 Axford Forecast . US -5%, Non US - 10% Axford Consulting LP April 2008 Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

  24. Things To Think About • Will US Recession reduce Elec Consumption ? - Axford Opinion – Yes • Can Gas Turbines compete with: - “Clean Coal” with heavy subsidy - Mandated Wind & Bio fuels programs • What if Plug-In Elec cars win 10 - 20% share • Will Carbon Tax help or hurt GT business - In the US ? - In the rest of world ? • Will US Gas Prices Stay stabile at $ 9 - 10 ? - On Btu Basis $100 barrel oil = $ gas Axford Consultants LP April 2008

  25. Comparative Cost of Various Fuels What if Natural Gas price was $ 20 ? Source: Morgan Stanley Research Axford Consultants LP April 2008

  26. That’s all Folks! Axford Consulting Lp April 2008

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