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2016 NSC Examination Results Analysis - A System on the Rise

A comprehensive analysis of the 2016 National Senior Certificate Examination results, focusing on key targets and trends in the South African education sector. Highlights improvements in pass rates, mathematics and physical science performance, and inclusivity.

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2016 NSC Examination Results Analysis - A System on the Rise

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  1. NSLA AND BASIC EDUCATION SECTOR LEKGOTLA ANALYSIS OF THE 2016 NSC EXAMINATION RESULTS 23 January 2017

  2. A SYSTEM ON THE RISE TIMSS 2015

  3. Introduction

  4. NSC Examination • The education enterprise is a highly complex activity and the outcome is based on a multiplicity of factors. • Hence, the quantification of the improvements in the system is an extremely challenging task. • NSC examination is one of the most important barometers to evaluate the success of the sector. • Primary purpose of the NSC examinations is to certify learners, but it can be used to monitor trends in performance, provided we understand the cohort differences.

  5. NSC Examination (e) In terms of Action Plan to 2019, the following three key targets are directly measured through the performance in the NSC examinations: • Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who become eligible for a Bachelor’s programme at University’; • Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who pass Mathematics; and • Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who pass Physical Science

  6. The Class of 2016

  7. NSC Full Time Enrolments: 2012 - 2016

  8. 2016 NSC Full Time Entered versus Wrote

  9. NSC Part Time Enrolments: 2012 - 2016

  10. NSC 2016 Progressed Learners per Province

  11. Historical Trends

  12. The Number of Candidates Passing Matric since 1970

  13. NSC Performance: 2010 to 2016 17

  14. Youth having completed Grade 12 by province and age (2012-2014)

  15. Overall Performance

  16. Overall Performance – 2015 & 2016 (Progressed Learners Included)

  17. Progressed Learners Excluded

  18. Progressed Learners Only

  19. Overall Performance (Progressed Included (2016)

  20. Progressed Learners Excluded

  21. Progressed Learners Only

  22. NSC Passes by Type of Qualification, 2016 19

  23. Bachelor Pass Trend (Percentage): 2009 -2016 20

  24. Bachelor Pass Trend (Numbers): 2009 - 2016 21

  25. Bachelor Passes (Numbers) per Province: 2016 22

  26. NSC Passes by Type of Qualification per Quintile: 2016 25

  27. Performance based on Gender

  28. School Performance within different Percentage Categories 27

  29. Schools performance within different percentage categories, 2015 - 2016 28

  30. Schools that obtained 100% pass: 2012 - 2016 31

  31. School Performance by Quintiles 30

  32. School performance by Quintile - 2016

  33. Subject Performance 32

  34. Candidates’ performance in selected subjects, 2011 – 2016 (at 30% level) 33

  35. Candidates’ performance in selected subjects, 2011 – 2016 (at 40% level) 35

  36. Mathematics achieved at 30% & 40% level, 2010 - 2016 37

  37. Physical Sciences achieved at 30% & 40% level, 2010 - 2016 38

  38. Candidates Performance in Home Languages (at 40% & above) 2014 - 2016

  39. Number and percentage of distinctions in the 12 Key Subjects: 2015 and 2016 38

  40. District Performance 42

  41. District performance by achievement interval and province: 2016

  42. Under-performing Districts

  43. Performance of Part-Time Candidates 46

  44. Candidates Enrolled/Wrote (Part time): 2015 - 2016 47

  45. Performance in Selected subjects (Part time): 2015 - 2016 47

  46. Significant Gains 46

  47. Significant Gains (a)Increase in the number of candidates that wrote Mathematics (263 903 to 265 810). • The percentage of candidates that passed Mathematics increased from 49.1% to 51.1%. • The number of candidates that passed Mathematics at 40% increased by 10 034, from 2014. (d) In Mathematics 33 511 learners achieved a mark of 60% or more in the 2016 examinations. Of the increase of 1700 from 2015, 1308 are black African learners. (e) The percentage of candidates that passed Physical Science increased from 58.6% to 62% (f) The number of candidates that passed Physical Science at 40% increased by 14 012, from 2014.

  48. Significant Gains (g) 2853 (41.9%) of the schools attained a pass percentage of 80% and above. (h) 1452 (59.9%) of the schools from quintile 1-3 attained a pass percentage of 80% and above. (i) 78 878 learners from quintiles 1-3 schools qualified for admission to Bachelor Studies. This is more than the number of learners from quintiles 4 and 5. (j) 32 of the 82 districts achieved a pass rate of 80% and above. (k) The number of districts attaining a pass rate of below 50% decreased from 8 to 5.

  49. Inclusive Basket of Criteria

  50. Inclusive Basket of Criteria • Overall pass percentage • Mathematics pass percentage • Physical Sciences pass percentage • Bachelor attainment percentage • Distinction percentage • Mathematics Participation rate • Throughput rate

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