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Update on Chesapeake Bay Program Developments

Briefing to the Water Resources Technical Committee July 9, 2009. Update on Chesapeake Bay Program Developments. EPA/CBPO Presentation. COG Policy Principles: Holistic Requirements Equitable Responsibility Sound Science Communication and Voice Note Key Issues for COG Region.

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Update on Chesapeake Bay Program Developments

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  1. Briefing to the Water Resources Technical Committee July 9, 2009 Update on Chesapeake Bay Program Developments

  2. EPA/CBPO Presentation • COG Policy Principles: • Holistic Requirements • Equitable Responsibility • Sound Science • Communication and Voice • Note Key Issues for COG Region WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  3. Key Issues for COG Region • Slide #3 – CBP Reoganization • Focus on Fed/State implementation – Good • Still lacks clear input/role for local entities that actually do implementation • Slide #5 – Executive Order • Federal attention to Ches. Bay – Good • Mentions consultation with Bay Jurisdictions (i.e., States/DC) & public – but not mention of local governments/agencies • Slide #6 – Section 202 Reports • Interagency coordination – Good • Doesn’t appear to require that cross-media issues be addressed (i.e., air and agriculture) WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  4. Key Issues for COG Region • Slide #9 – TMDL & SIPs Process • Iterative process – Good • Compressed schedule & inadequate time for proper review/analysis is troublesome • Concern that key modeling tools won’t be ready/available in time for reviews - least of all for applications (ref. later slides for details) • WSM (Phase 4.3 vs. 5.2 vs. 5.3) – Used to develop TMDL basin/state allocations (now through May 2010) • Scenario Builder – Used to verify that State Implementation Plans (SIPs) meet basin/state allocations (Nov. 2009 – May 2010) WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  5. Key Issues for COG Region • Slide #10 – Purpose of SIPs • Retaining flexibility in SIPs versus TMDL allocations – Good • Need local flexibility too • Adaptive Management – Good • How this will actually work is still uncertain (e.g., Stage 1 versus Stage 2 implementation) • Critical that public investments for major capital programs be protected from constant 2-Year Milestone updates • Slide #11 – Content of SIPs • Obligations from all source sectors – Good • How to ensure full Equity uncertain (e.g., CWA limitations) WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  6. Key Issues for COG Region • Slide #12 – Adaptive Management Cycle • Use of Adaptive Management – Good • How to retain flexibility and be able to change SIPs & 2-Year Milestones (vs. TMDL Allocations & Suballocations) is uncertain • Elements of SIPs & 2-Year Milestones will be crucial to making progress while retaining flexibility • Addressing program/funding gaps – Good • No acknowledgement that other options could be pursued is troublesome • E.g., UAA and/or Adjusting 2025 Implementation Deadline options - versus requiring even more from WWTPs & other sectors WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  7. Water Quality Steering Committee[updates] • Bay TMDL Development • Still on schedule overall [very compressed, slipping] • Draft major basin/state load allocations – Targets (July) &Agreed upon allocations (Oct.) - (vs. Sept. 2009) • [Appears that agreement is not likely] • State SIPs – Drafts by Jan. 2010 • Bay TMDL – Dec. 31, 2010 • 92 TMDLs (i.e., by river segments/Designated Uses/by State) • Scenarios –Fully Regulatory, Others, & Revising E3 • UAA Process – Dropped; now Affordability Analysis[no info.] • WSM & Scenario Builder [reference later slides] WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  8. Water Quality Steering Committee [updates] • Bay TMDL Developments • 2-Year Milestones • SIPs • Full Implementation End Date – Year 2025 or Earlier • Results: MD – 2.5 times current implementation rates; VA- 3 times current implementation rates (feasible/affordable??) • Regulatory Implications???? • No UAA • Upcoming Events • PSC Meeting – July 22nd WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  9. Water Quality Steering Committee [updates] • Allocation/Modeling Issues – CB4 Deep Water & CBB3-5 Open Water are key drivers • Sector Assumptions in Modeling Scenarios – Still under development (e.g., E3 for WWTPs vs. ‘Fully Regulated’) • Daily Load – 3 calculation options (final TBD) [no update] • 365-Average / Multiplier / Variable Daily Load • EPA wants consistency rather than state to chose • Implications/impacts not clear yet • WWTP versus CSO Loads / Permitting / Potential fines WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  10. Water Quality Steering Committee [updates] • Allocation Methodology • Focus on assessing ‘attainment’ given multiple standards & Designated Uses • How to account for Atmospheric Deposition? • Use federal standards - 2030 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) • Similar to 2003 allocations – but range of air control options not provided [Issue raised by COG staff] • Voluntary efforts beyond federal requir.’s will be credited [How? TBD] • Exceeds 2025 deadline • Target Load Options • Still under development – July through Sept. 2009 • Desire to evaluate point source vs. other sources separately • Allocation curves – Working to develop criteria for determine Level of Effort, Maximum implementation caps, equity issues, etc. • Bottom Line - Not clear yet what implications might be • Does appear to recognize WWTP contributions – Good • Renews focus on other sectors – Air / Stormwater / Agriculture [???] WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  11. TMDL Outreach/Meetings • Focus on ‘TMDL 101’ • Start - August 2009 • Use of Web site, articles, other media • Outreach • MACO – Aug. 12th • Va. House Comm. On Ag., Ches. Bay & Nat. Resources – Aug. 26th • Ches. Watershed Forum – Oct. 9-11th • Others – COG Region (TBD) (in lieu of indiv. meetings) • In addition to: • State SIP Public Meetings (Nov. 2009 – May 2010?) • Bay TMDL Public Review (June – Sept. 2010) WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  12. CBP Scenario Builder • Under development by CBP modeling staff 2008-2009 • Dual purpose • Mechanism for input of state data to watershed model • On-line support tool for anyone to do scenario analysis (successor to COAST, Vortex) • On-line interface not finished WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  13. Chesapeake Bay ProgramDecision Support System Land Use Change Model Criteria Assessment Procedures Bay Model Watershed Model Management Actions Scenario Builder Airshed Model Sparrow Effects Allocations WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  14. Scenario Builder Phases • 1 Land use and Nutrient Inputs • 2 BMPs, point source, septic • 3 NEIEN implementation • 4 Summarized reports • 5 Web interface WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  15. Scenario Builder Uses • Not HSPF, so output is not the same as watershed model • Produces edge of field loads, not delivered loads • No attenuation processes modelled • No riverine processes modelled • Not clear how much support there will be for “transparency” WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  16. Phase 1 – Land use and Nutrient Inputs • Phase 1.0 • Completed 4/2009 for phase 5.2 • Operational with a combination of hand work, SQL queries, and C# • Some bad data • A few bugs • Held constant and operational for phase 5.2 scenarios • Phase 1.6 • To be completed 8/2009 • Still a combination of hand work, SQL, and C# • Corrects bugs and data from phase 1.0 • Used to test Phase 1 and the watershed model WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  17. Phase 2 – BMPs, land use,point source, and septic • Phase 2.0 • To be completed 10/2009 for phase 5.3 • Efficiency BMPs • Land use Change BMPs • Manure transport • Animal Feed BMPs • Phase 2.1 • Incorporate point source and septic • No completion date set WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  18. Watershed Model Schedule • Phase 5.2 Scenarios • No action for several years – next week • E3, Maximum Feasible – August • Testing with scenario builder • August, testing with SB 1.6 • October, testing with SB 2.0 • Phase 5.3 • December Final SB 2.0 • Calibration complete 1/1/2010 WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  19. CBP Documentation of N, P Data • Produced by Olivia Devereaux in June 09 • 100-pages plus document is available • Approximately 95 % of information addresses ag issues • E.g., use of NASS date, animal confinement issues, nitrogen fixation, manure issues, etc. • Does address how the watershed model calculates septic loads, nutrient loads in urban areas • No BMP documentation for now WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  20. Septic System Loads • 8.92 lbs N/person/year x .4 • (assumes 60% attenuation from edge of field to edge of stream) • # of people on septic in particular jurisdiction extrapolated from 1990 Census data • (assumes same proportion of population served by septic systems today as was estimated in 1990) • BMPs for this practice include: • connection to sewer system (100 %) • Use of denitrifcation systems (50%) • Use of pump-outs (5%) WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  21. Urban Land Use Loads • Based on assumption of turfgrass fertilization • Turfgrass acreage calculated as difference between total pervious acres and urban forest acres (as estimated by Claggett from satellite analysis data) • Relationship to calibration (Pitt data) is not clear WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

  22. Wrap-Up • Questions? • Recommendations: • Timeframe/focus (audience) for COG-region TMDL meeting • WRTC request to CBPO to provide draft WSM 5.3 & Scenaerio Builder to COG staff • Other issues to raise to CBPC? WRTC Meeting (7/9/09)

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