1 / 19

Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland

Application of low-resolution ETA model data to provide guidance to high impact weather in complex terrain. Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland Juan Bazo, Gerardo Jacome & Luis Metzger Servicio National de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI), Peru.

vivien
Télécharger la présentation

Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Application of low-resolution ETA model data to provide guidance to high impact weather in complex terrain Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland Juan Bazo, Gerardo Jacome & Luis Metzger Servicio National de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI), Peru

  2. Co-operation between FMI and SENAMHI Institutional development • Among the items: • Forecast verification (training, application development: an entry level verification system) • Post-processing of NWP output (training, application development: testing of Kalman filtering for NWP data) Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  3. EUMETCAL training tools used Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  4. User-interface for the verifcation system at SENAMHI Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  5. Introduction • Peruvian ETA-model data is available for guidance at Peruvian Hydro-meteorological service (SENAMHI). The application of rather low resolution (22 km grid) data is not straight forward in complex terrain in terms of topography, climatic zones and sharp land-sea gradient. • The applicability of the data is evaluated and if some problems are encountered a solution will be searched. So far data has been partly verified and tests with Kalman filter have started. The test data includes maximum and minimum temperature. • Another focus is the heavy precipitation in Machu Picchu area resulting flooding and danger to life and property. Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  6. Data • ETA-model • Resolution 22 km • 18 vertical levels • Output 6 h interval up to 72 h • Kain Frish cumulus parameterization • the GFS global model data is used for the lateral boundaries • No data assimilation is made • Test data periods: temperature 2009-2010 • Precipitation 2010 • Observations (21 stations) • Tumbes • Piura • Huánuco • Pucallpa • Lima • Andahuaylas • Cuzco • Tacna • Chiclayo • Chimbote • Cajamarca • Tarapoto • Yurimaguas • Iquitos • Tingo Maria • Trujillo • Ayacucho • Puerto Maldonado • Arequipa • Juliaca • Pisco Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  7. Methods – post-processing/Kalman filter • Only for temperature forecasts: • Two state parameters • TKalman = B1 + B2 * TETA • Optimized estimation of measurement noise R and system noise Q Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  8. Methods - verification • For temperature forecasts: • ME (Mean Error) • RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) • HR (Hit Rate) (not shown) • Also other scores • For precipitation forecasts (categories): • B (Bias) • PC (Percent correct) • POD (Probability of Detection) • FAR (False Alarm Rate) • KSS (Kuipers Skill Score) • TS (Threat Score) • ETS (Equility Threat Score) • … Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  9. Stations in focus:Cusco 3399 m Pucallpa 154 m Andahuaylas 2866 m Huanuco 1859 m Lima 13 mTacna 452 m Machu Picchu Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  10. Temperature verification Cusco (near Machu Picchu) 3399 m

  11. Pucallpa 154m

  12. Andahuaylas 2866 m

  13. Huanuco 1859 m

  14. Lima 13 m

  15. Tacna 452 m

  16. Precipitation forecasts Machu Picchu area verification of ETA model Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  17. Machu Picchu 2010 Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  18. Categorical results: Machu Picchu 2010 Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  19. Conclusions • The preliminary results indicate that ETA model has problems with temperature forecasts in most regions; in tropical rain forest, at mountains and near coastline affected by cold sea current. The application of Kalman filter was used to minimize systematic errors from the ETA-model and rather encouraging results was received. • For precipitation forecasts ETA model is not able to forecast higher precipitation amounts correctly • A higher resolution (e.g. WRF) NWP model would be a way to inprove the forecast quality in complex terrain Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

More Related