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And The ACS

Transportation. And The ACS. Be careful what you wish for, or how we got here and why it won’t be changing. How FDOT can help us help ourselves. Article I,. Section 2;.

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And The ACS

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  1. Transportation And The ACS Be careful what you wish for, or how we got here and why it won’t be changing How FDOT can help us help ourselves

  2. Article I, Section 2; “Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective numbers…..

  3. Article I, Section 2; “The actual Enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent term of ten Years, in such manner as they shall by law direct.” “The actual Enumeration”

  4. Article I, Section 2; “free persons, including those bound to service for a term of years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three-fifths of all other persons”,* * Amendment 14 to the Constitution now refers to the “whole number of persons”.

  5. Article I, Section 2; The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States, and the Electors in each State shall have the Qualifications requisite for Electors of the most numerous Branch of the State Legislature. No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years, and been seven Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen. Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole er of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each State shall have at Least one Representative; and until such enumeration shall be made, the State of New Hampshire shall be entitled to chuse three, Massachusetts eight, Rhode Island and Providence Plantations one, Connecticut five, New York six, New Jersey four, Pennsylvania eight, Delaware one, Maryland six, Virginia ten, North Carolina five, South Carolina five and Georgia three. When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies. The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.

  6. 1920 Census World War I Dramatic Shift in Population Rural - Conservative - Southern States To Industrialized - Urban - Northern States Congress Refused to Reapportion

  7. 1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment Census 90’ undercount 8 million Bipartisan support in Congress 1997 Redistricting Memorandum

  8. 1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment 1997 Redistricting Memorandum Jim Nicholson, Chairman RNC “The GOP would suffer a negative effect in the partisan makeup of 24 congressional seats, 113 state senate seats, and 297 state house seats nationwide. An adjusted census could provide Democrats the crucial edge needed to prevail in close contests to control several state legislative chambers.”

  9. 1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment Census 90’ undercount 8 million Bipartisan support in Congress 1997 Redistricting Memorandum 1999 U.S. Supreme Court decision ”The actualEnumeration” 2000 Clinton Executive Order 2001 Bush Executive Order

  10. 1990 Census and Undercount Adjustment ESCAP & The Fickle Finger of Fate (Executive Committee for Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Policy) Head Count of 281.4 million Sampling estimate of 284.7 million Undercount estimate of 3.3 million Vital Statistics estimate of 279 million

  11. As it stands right now Resident Population of the U.S. December 2010 PL94-171 Reapportionment Dataset March – April 2011 No adjusted datasets No Characteristics datasets Pending actions

  12. Title 13 US Code The ACS and the DRB Primary Data Suppression CONFIDENTIAL Complementary Data Suppression

  13. Total Population and Total Housing Counts are NEVER Suppressed!

  14. Title 13, U.S. Code, Section 9 Prohibits the release of ANY information that would permit identification of any particular establishment, individual, or household.

  15. Title 13, U.S. Code, Section 9 All data collected or maintained by the Census Bureau under Title 13, are protected. This includes Title 13 information that may be commingled with or enhanced by data from other sources or agencies.

  16. Total Population Total Housing Units Seasonal/migratory Units Year-round Units Occupied Units Vacant Year-round Units Count of persons and households in each race and Spanish origin group

  17. Characteristics for persons are shown ONLY if there are 15 or more persons in a geographic area. . . . . . . . . . . Primary Data Suppression

  18. Characteristics for housing units are not shown if there are fewer than 5 housing units in a geographic area. . . . Primary Data Suppression

  19. Characteristics for families, households, or occupied housing units are shown only if there are at least 5 OCCUPIED housing units in a geographic area. . . . Primary Data Suppression

  20. Complementary Data Suppression Is applied to prevent the derivation of suppressed characteristics data by subtraction.

  21. Complementary Data Suppression Example Total occupied housing units = 6 Total owner occupied housing units = 5 Total renter occupied housing units = 1 Data will be suppressed

  22. Census Geography Census Tract 2,500 ~ 8,000 persons Census Block Group Homogeneous Blocks 600 ~ 3,000 Census Block

  23. U.S.Summary Land Use Mapping System LUMS Regions Tangible Property File AWI Labor & Employment Data

  24. Why FDOT & MPO’s require current, geographically precise, employment data. Florida’s dynamic population shifts require frequent updates in modeling demographic and transit trends. Stable, consistent data sources are needed to provide reliable modeling solutions Standardized format and accurate location are required to perform time series analysis & QC.

  25. Data Sources Bureau of Labor & Employment Statistics contains employment data by business establishment in the LES202 data base. Department of Revenue collects data on type and street location of all business’s maintained in the Tangible Property (TAPR) data base Department of Revenue maintains the Real Property (REPR) data base indicating land use type, location, and size of each parcel.

  26. Process Prep data files for consist format, projection & completeness. Geo-code 1 million + business records from TAPR. Expect about a 95% success. Make name & employment type subset data base from LES202 as required by Bureau of Labor. Geo-code 18 million + real estate records from REPR. Have a 98% success rate.

  27. Process 2 Merge LES202 subset with the geo-coded TAPR file by business name. For those business names in LES202 not matched with the TAPR names provide the abbreviated record to MPO for location assignment. Incorporate MPO location enhanced records into master employment file. For TAPR records not matched to LES202 determine approximate number of employees (usually self employed e.g. realtor) and include in master employment data file.

  28. Results Using the TAPR file and the Florida Employment Mapping System (FEMS) select a county and a NAICS category or range Make a shape file showing distribution of selection Make a thematic map showing distribution for polygon layers such as Census Block Groups or Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) Warehousing & storage categories 490000 to 499999 Dade county 2008

  29. Overlay in Google Earth

  30. TAPR & Census

  31. TAPR Distribution Distribution of NAICS 44 & 45, Retail Trade

  32. Merge TAPR & Census Results of merging TAPR Retail Trade with census block groups

  33. Benefits Where Florida Works master employment file will contain business name, business type from NAICS classification, number of employees, latitude & longitude location. File can be summarized by classification categories and spatial distribution. Convenient modification of TAZ boundaries Aggregation of employment categories for various applications. Subsequent years will utilize geo-coding of master file for cost effective & standardized updating of employment data

  34. LUMS The Land Use Mapping System (LUMS) is FDOR real property data summarized to the section level by land use code. The data is available from 1985 to present, offering a valuable data source for time series analysis. Data is summarized by 1 of 100 land use categories ranging from vacant residential, single family res., as well as many commercial, industrial, agricultural and government categories. Data can be mapped in a shape file format by county, region or the entire state and years can be compared to view change in land use over time.

  35. LUMS

  36. LUMS-XY In addition to the section level LUMS ARMASI now has a parcel centroid location data file. As with LUMS, the data can be mapped by county, region or the entire state. Using the LUMS menu interface the user selects a geographical area (county level) and land use categories to create a shape file of selected criteria. ARMASI has over 98% of the state geocoded to the parcel centroid level. Data fields for each parcel include land area, building area, owner occupancy and various valuation fields.

  37. LUMS-XY

  38. LUMS-XY XY location for each parcel Land Use category & intensity data for each parcel Assign each parcel to a census block Use average household size from Census block to assign population to a parcel. Summarize parcels by xy location to Census Block Group or TAZ

  39. LUMS & Census

  40. LUMS_XY Distribution of single family residential by building area

  41. LUMS-XY & Census By merging parcel by land use point data with the census block group file we can generate a thematic map depicting the distribution of population. SF number of parcels X average household size. For multi-family the number of units per parcel are summarized to calculate the population.

  42. Summary Using data sources updated annually we can provide detailed, geographically accurate population & employment data. Data will be provided in a consistent format & classification scheme for easy inclusion in modeling software. Consistency of data will allow for time series analysis, review and QC. Florida’s dynamic population shifts require frequent updates in modeling demographic and transit trends

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