ENSO Rainfall Signal Reversal and Angat Inflow Predictions Using K-NN and CPT Models

Dec 28, 2025

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This study explores the reversal of the ENSO rainfall signal and its impact on predicting Angat inflows using two models: K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) and Conditional Probability Tables (CPT). By analyzing the sea surface temperature (SST) data and 850 hPa wind patterns, the study provides forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere months of November, December, January, and February (NDJF) for the 2006-2007 season. It highlights how observed SSTs during October serve as key predictors in determining the mean inflow scenarios for the National Water Resources Board (NWRB).

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ENSO Rainfall Signal Reversal and Angat Inflow Predictions Using K-NN and CPT Models

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ENSO Rainfall Signal Reversal IRI & PAGASA (GRL Dec 2006)
Two Models (K-NN, CPT) used to Predict Angat Inflows pSST model 850 hPa winds (K-NN) Observed October tropical SSTs (CPT) Predictors: Forecast for NDJF (2006-07) Mean Inflow
NWRB Scenario