Effects of Residence Duration Thresholds on Migration Data Analysis

1. Impact of different duration thresholds of residence on migration statistics Patrick Corr Director, Demography www.abs.gov.au Item 6 - WP18 Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Edinburgh, Scotland, 20-22 November 2006

2. Australia - Key Facts • 7.7 million square km in area • 59,700 km of coastline, no land borders • Island state of 20.6 million people (heavily urbanised) • Population growth rate – 1.3% per annum • Half of annual growth due to net overseas migration (NOM) • Government Migration (skilled and family reunion) and Humanitarian Programs • Free movement of Australian and New Zealand citizens • Strong temporary visitor programs (working holiday makers, students, business, tourists, etc.) • Over 21 million border crossings every year • Some are multiple movements of individual travelers • Legislation requires timely quarterly population estimates

3. Migration measurement • Source: incoming and outgoing passenger cards • Linked to data from passport scans at border and visa applications before arrival • Overseas arrivals and departures categorised into • Permanent arrivals • Permanent departures • Visitors arriving on a temporary basis * • Residents departing on a temporary basis * • Visitors departing * • Residents arriving * * Duration in years, months and days: • Long-term (12 months or more) and • Short-term (< 12 months)

4. International movements, 2005

5. International movements, 2005

6. Evolution of Net Overseas Migration (NOM) Measurement Method Time Frame NOM = A - D Before 1980 NOM = P&LTA – P&LTD 1981 1982 onwards NOM = P&LTA – P&LTD + CJ CJ = Migration category jumping to allow for changes between categories

7. What if duration of stay/absent was not required

8. Focus in on net permanent and long-term migration

9. Focus in on long-term migration, annual totals

10. Why ? • July 1998, card redesign changed method for measuring ACTUAL duration: • stay in Australia for visitors, and • absence from Australia for residents. • Before July 1998 - • travellers were asked to report duration of stay/absence on completion of journey • After July 1998 - • duration derived by matching incoming and outgoing movement records using a purpose-specific personal identification number. • Short breaks interrupt longer stays/absences

11. Consequences - examples • long-term visitors to Australia who leave for short-term absences overseas (e.g. Malaysian university student studying in Australia for 4 years) • Reported intention to stay in Australia for 12 months or more - a long-term visitor arriving • Student leaves Australia for academic vacations • Could be classified as a visitor departing after short-term stay in Australia by reference back to most recent border movement. • No question on whether intends to return to Australia • Multiple long-term arrivals during 4 year stay in Australia • Multiple short-term departures during stay in Australia • Can apply for permanent residence after completing course.

12. Consequences - examples • Australian resident overseas long-term (e.g. working in Roxburghe Hotel using UK passport and working rights on basis of parent’s British origin) • Reports long-term absence on departing Australia each time • Taxation minimisation incentive to formally demonstrate “I’m leaving Australia for 2 year or more”. • Returns for Christmas/New Year vacation each year with family/friends in Australia & summer vitamin D generation sessions at beach • Never out of Australia for 12 months continuously • long-term departure on exit • Returning resident away for short-term on arrival.

13. Improved ABS method • Abandon “continuity” in measuring 12 months stay in Australia/ absence from Australia • Accumulate stay/absence over sequential periods • Link up individual travel movements into a complete travel history rather than pairs of border crossings to derive duration • Accumulate sequential border movements over 16 month period • Clean data and impute for implausible movements • Two or more arrivals without a departure • Two or more departures without an arrival

14. Improved ABS method (2) • Resolves multiple movements within year • Categorise traveller to duration of stay in Australia over next 16 months after reference quarter: • 121 days or less (less than 4 months), • 122 to 264 days (four months to less than 12 months), • 365 days or more (12 months or more). • Consider whether was included in the Australian population at beginning of quarter • Based on duration of subsequent stay in Australia (12/16) - • People added to population, subtracted from population or no change (in or out of population).

15. Results – “Permanent” Migration March Quarter 2004

16. Residents overseas long-term, March Quarter 2004

17. Visitors staying long-term, March Quarter 2004

18. Residents overseas short-term, March Quarter 2004

19. Visitors staying short-term, March Quarter 2004

20. Key issues for consideration • How duration of stay/absence is measured - • Stated intention at beginning of journey • Stated actual at end of journey • Derived actual based by record linking • Should duration for determining long-term/short-term be • The interval between two border movements, or • A period of actual presence (residence) accumulated over a longer period of time • What threshold to use for population estimate purposes.