1 / 17

EC4MACS

EC4MACS. Task 3: Ecosystem Impact Assessment by the MNP-Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE). The Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) …. Consists of: Max Posch, Jaap Slootweg, Jean-Paul Hettelingh,

wattan
Télécharger la présentation

EC4MACS

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. EC4MACS Task 3: Ecosystem Impact Assessment by the MNP-Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  2. The Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) … • Consists of: • Max Posch, • Jaap Slootweg, • Jean-Paul Hettelingh, • Collaborates with Alterra (Wim de Vries and Gert Jan Reinds) on bio-geochamical modelling, • Collaborates with university of Leiden on GIS and ecology. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  3. …Develops methodologies and databases on European critical loads (acidification, eutrophication, heavy metals); deposition below which no adverse effects occur to ecosystems according to current knowledge…, 5th percentile critical loads Eutrophication Acidification Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  4. …and methodologies to assess future effects of changes in the exceedances of critical load (emission scenario dependent)…, Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  5. …in collaboration with 27 National Focal Centres (NFCs),covering about 1,5 million data points on soil-vegetation characteristics within the EMEP modelling domain of GAINS Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  6. …in support of effect-based European air pollution policies; CLRTAP-Oslo protocol (2001), CLRTAP-Gothenburg protocol (1999), EC-NEC directive (2001), EC-Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Intergovernmental bodies, expert groups and scientific centresUN/ECE-LRTAP Convention International Co-operative Programme on Modelling and Mapping Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  7. …Including scientific consensus under the LRTAP-Convention… Decision on effects basis of protocols. EB WGE Formulate workplan, endorse CCE results. RIVM CCE Methods & data development, reach consensus in ICP M&M, Scientific community & NFCs. Consensus on methods ? UN/ECE workshops, CCE workshops, Conferences. no yes Apply methods; provide data. NFCs Data, and maps verified and ok ? no yes Results (critical loads) in IMPACT module of RAINS and other IEMs. TFIAM Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  8. …implements results in RAINS/GAINS… Critical loads SO emissions S deposition Surface waters 2 for acidification Critical loads NH emissions N deposition Forests soils 3 for nitrogen Critical levels NO emissions O formation Crops x 3 for ozone Secondary Health VOC emissions aerosols guidelines O3 Human health Primary Life Single and Energy PM emissions particles expectancy multiple CH emissions pollutant 4 Agriculture emission CO emissions 2 Industrial controls production Radiative N O emissions Climate 2 forcing/GWP HFC emissions PFC emissions SF emissions 6 Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  9. …focuses in the future on revision processes under CLRTAP and EC (EC4MACS)… • EC-Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution • CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  10. …Assessing exceedance of critical loads for acidification in e.g.2000, 2010-CLE, 2020-CLE, 2020-MFR 2000 2010-CLE 2020-CLE 2020-MFR Area at risk in EU25: 18%, 11%, 7%, 2% Area at risk in Europe: 12%, 8%, 6%, 1% Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  11. …Assessing exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication in e.g.2000, 2010-CLE, 2020-CLE, 2020-MFR, CLE 2010 2000 CLE 2020 MTFR 2020 Exceedance %: EU25: 65.1 60.3 55.9 25.4 Europe: 45.8 45.6 44.0 13.8 Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  12. …currently extending methods to include biological endpoints also for natura2000 areas… Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  13. …exploring overlays between NFC-sumissions and location of Natura2000 sites…(e.g. Netherlands) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  14. …implemented the CLRTAP and EC4MACS workplan • Track 1: Voluntary Call for Data 2006/07 • Empirical N critical loads: • Should be done by all countries to be able to compare with computed values! • - Update of the critical load of nitrogen: • Application of wide(r) range of critical limits, also addressing biodiversity. • (CCE-Alterra Background Document) • - Dynamic Modelling: • - Enquire availability of data to run more complex (Δ vegetation) models. • Track 2: 2007-future • - Focus on implementation/use of (more complex) modelling of N-effects • on biodiversity (see CCE Background Document) and Natura2000 areas • Under climate change… • Under uncertainty. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  15. …will review results under climate change… • Δ temperature → Δ critical load • Δ precipitation → Δ critical load • … • Δ dispersion → Δ exceedance of critical loads • … • → Δ risk of impacts (magnitude and spatial distribution Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  16. …will review results under uncertainty. • Critical loads cannot be validated (…impacts are in the future…) • …Can be verified by means of “ensemble modelling” (use more than 1 single methodology; e.g. comparing magnitude and spatial distribution of empirical and computed critical loads • …focus on robustness of exceedances… • …by improving knowledge on false positifs (wrongly reject exceedance), and collaborate with the EC4MACS team in identifying no regret scenarios and co-benefits to diminish the “cost” of false negatifs (wrongly reject non-exceedance). Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

  17. Thank you www.mnp.nl/cce Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007

More Related