Crises in cotton of Francophone Africa

1. Crises in cotton of Francophone Africa Fatality or challenge for multi-dimension cooperation? Michel FOK Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

2. Cotton making Maizels' ideas topical ones • Cotton forcing itself into the WTO arena in September 2003 • Rehabilitating a few of Maizels ideas • Commodities crises call upon international cooperation • Subsidies = issue to be dealt with • Financial compensation along the issue of subsidies Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

3. Modest contribution trying to be in line with Maizels' book • Providing insight on • Cotton crises and their implications • Influencing Factors of cotton crises • Suggestions to prevent cotton crises or alleviating their potential consequences Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

4. Cotton crises & implications • Continuing process of cotton crises • Major consequences in the world • Consequences in FACs Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

5. Visualisation of cotton crises Source: Fok, 1997 & ICAC Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

6. Cotton crises & decreasing trend of world price Source: data from Fok, 1997 & ICAC Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

7. Cotton crises and US cotton support programme Source: data from USDA, ERS Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

8. High subsidies not necesarily detrimental to others • FACs' cotton have benefitted from the US cotton policy in the 1960-70s! • Modalities of subsidies matter more than the principle of subsidies • Maizels was right in being pessimistic (realistic) about subsidy phasing out? • Doha Round is stuck! • Challenge to address: figure out more efficient and fairer subsidy modalities Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

9. Crises: factor of questioning FACs' cotton sector organization • Process of cotton sector reforms • …with mitigated outcomes Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

10. FACs are losing ground Source: data from ICAC Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

11. Widening yield gap Source: data from ICAC Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

12. FACs' Productivity: back to 25 years earlier! Source: data from ICAC Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

13. Serious reduction of cotton exportation earnings Value in Billion CFA Franc Reference year for loss calculations: 1998 Source: calculated from data of Rapport Zone Franc, Banque de France Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

14. Reduced share in export earnings… Except in Burkina Faso Export Value in Billion CFA Franc Source: Reports of Banque de France Because of gold (yellow and black) Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

15. Influencing factors of cotton crises • Demand factors • Supply factors • Price formation factors Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

16. Reduced demand from industrialized countries (EU) Importation of cotton fibre in Europe Source: from data of EUROSTAT Demand divided by three in less than ten years… …with increasing market share of the USA! Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

17. Global demand hurt by the competition from synthetics? Fatality of decreasing share of cotton in the textile fibre market? …some room for resistance? No so much from DCs Source: ICAC, 2007 Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

18. Preference for cotton when per capita income increases Positive prospects are possible as countries with huge populations are reaching higher income levels and where hot temperatures should further push to preferring cotton garments Source: Fok, 1997 Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

19. Per capita end-use consumption of cotton fibre Great margin of demand increase from DCs Source: ICAC, 2007 Globally speaking, some uncertainties remains about the effect of the competition from synthetics and the evolution of the cotton demand Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

20. Substantial increase of the international transactions …without increase of the world price. Tragedy of King's law? …or issue of price formation? Issue of instant supply response? Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

21. Implications of the changes in textile industry • More stringent requirement for quality demand • As Maizels has anticipated • Just-in-time management • Factor not addressed by Maizels • More demanding towards suppliers • …that only international traders, so far, have succeeded to respond • …with possible implications on price formation Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

22. Supply factors • Subsidies • Technology change • Socio-economic reasons Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

23. Supply sustained by Cotton subsidies • Maizels aks for international agreements • he was pessimistic about their abolition • He seems to be right! • Uncertain price effect of subsidy abolition • And surely short-term effect at best Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

24. Supply sustained by Cotton subsidies • The African protest has relaunched somehow the debate on the relevance of supply control • Justified by the view that agriculture is different and regulation is needed • Pay more attention to subsidy program with some supply control • The specific case of the EU cotton regime! Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

25. Supply enhanced by yield gain • Yield progress linked to technology evolution • Probably some impact of biotech • India has overpassed the USA and ranks second to China in cotton production! • What if Pakistan follows the same biotech way? Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

26. Tricky deal of technology progress? • Technology progress needed to adapt to price decline • …or trend of price decline fed by technology progress? • Possible risk when no control of supply Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

27. Tricky deal of technology progress? • Wise to consider yield progress at reasonable cost in FACs • To limit financial risks to resource-poor producers • Biotech: available solution • passionately debated • …might be a financially-risky option if cotton price declines • More attention to other technical solutions • Because less financially costly Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

28. Supply sustained by the lack of alternative cash crops • While more cash in needed • …further more after the SAPs • More cash is needed to accede to welfare services Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

29. Price Formation • Market structure: concentration • Dramatic changes in the marketing of FACs' cotton • Amazing prices for FACs' cotton • (Exchange rate = amplifier of cotton crises) • But not specific to FACs Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

30. Oligopolistic market structure About 12 companies trading more than 200 000 tons yearly, but only 9 trading African cotton Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

31. Rather recent invasion of FACs by international traders • Before 1991: marketing through marketing agent • mainly at CIF position • Contact with final users • No intervention of traders • "marketing liberalization" = part of the reform of FACs' cotton sector Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

32. Rather recent invasion of FACs by international traders • Now, no more sales through marketing agent • Sales exclusively at FOB position • No more contact with final users • Unilateral change of trading rules • No full respect of the rules and bylaws to which the contracts refer to • No more contradictory control (notably of quality) • Timing of delivery not always respected by traders when world price is low • Indications of asymetric power • …and FACs' insufficient command/power in dealing with marketing Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

33. FACs are victims of abusive price formation? Market price indicators: Better quality without market premium Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

34. Questionable price discount against FACs' cotton imported into Europe CIF, US cent/lb Source: EUROSTAT Time lag makes difficult comparison to A index but the observed discounts to other origins of cotton are quite questionable Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

35. Moving out cotton crises or alleviating their effects • Actions of international dimension • Cotton Subsidies, supply control and assistance fund • Marketing • Transaction monetary unit • Actions of national and regional dimension • Marketing coordination • Income stabilization vs price stabilization • R&D for productivity • Global public good of productivity gain • diversification Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

36. Subsidy reduction along supply control • Not realistic to expect total and rapid subsidy phasing out • Negotiate subsidy reduction instead • Hence complying fully with Doha Round objective • Advocate subsidy reduction along with changes of subsidy modalities • Favour modalities leading to some supply control • Claim the allocation of the subsidy savings to feed an assistance fund DCs Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

37. Multi-lateral and bilateral moves to improve marketing outcomes • Demand the initiation of some control process of the TNCs • At least similar to what has been decided for the State Trading Enterprises • …do not miss the opportunity that Doha Round is stuck and not over! • Escape the market power of TNCs by negotiating long term supply contracts with preferential price • China is an opportunity • Implement through a regional cooperation of FACs? • Following Maizels' idea…but not easy Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

38. Transaction monetary unit • Not realistic to ambition a New Third World currency • Advocate the adoption of a new unit based on a basket of existing hard currencies • Open and adaptable to the change of international economies Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

39. FACs' marketing coordination realistic? • Desirable… • But too late, places are yet invaded by TNCs without interest for coordination • A few actions are possible • Marketing by using the existing common standard of cotton types Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

40. Income stabilization better than price stablization • Stabilization with reference to purchasing power • Get out the trap of decreasing productivity by exclusive consideration of seedcotton price • Leading to less intensification which has costed more and more • Move to consider relative prices of inputs and outputs Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

41. R&D enhancement with limited human and financial resources • More resources are needed • Better use of limited resources through more regional approach • Vs coexistence of national approaches • Time for regional long-term R&D programs • Emphasis on developing cultivation techniques with reasonable financial risks Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

42. Productivity gain = public good • Public because deisred by all stakeholders • Public because of many positive externalities • Then the associated cost must be shared • Get out the current trick where the poorest are asked to bear alone the cost and risk of productivity gain Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

43. Diversification from cotton • Ask firstly some preservation of cotton production for a while! • Ask for long-term commitment • Assimilable to public good as well • Hence efforts must be shared • Just talk = not sufficient! • Diversification asks for…diversified approaches of implementation • and firstly implementation operations and to draw lessons from them Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008

44. Conclusion • Maizels' ideas are quite topical in the cotton case • Some attempt to show how topical they are • Not all Maizels' recommendations are realistic today • But quite valuable in figuring out new mechanisms and actions to defend Workshop in memory of A. Maizels, London, 19-20/09/2008