TransTools 3

1. TransTools 3 Otto Anker Nielsen, oan@transport.dtu.dk

2. Overview • 3 year project, lead by DTU Transport • 2011-2013 (contract 22. Feb 2011) • 1.95 Million Euro • Improve and upgrade TransTools • Will heavily build upon the new ETIS+ data • Re-estimate the model to 2010 data • Re-estimated passenger demand models • New freight and logistic models • Tuned solution algorithms for traffic assignment • Different purpose specific configurations of the model

3. Consortium • Technical University of Denmark (DTU) • Institute for Transport Studies, Leeds (ITS) • Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) • Rapidis (RAP) • TetraPlan (TP) • University of Oxford (UOXF-JG) • National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) • John Bates Services (JB) • Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) • Nouveau Espaces de Transport en Europe Application de Recherce (NEST) • ETH Zürich (ETH) • University of Belgrade (UB-FITE) • FOMTERV (FT) • AustriaTech - Federal Agency for Technological Measures Ltd. (AT)

4. Largest partners in terms of budget • DTU Transport • Consortium management, Assignment, Model development, Model validation • Rapidis • Software Development • ITS • Freight models, Passenger Model estimation, Model validation • KTH • Passenger demand model • John Bates • Model design

5. Work packages • WP1 Consortium management • WP2 Cross cutting activities • WP3 Architecture & Configuration • WP4 Flexible modelling framework • WP5 Data collection and validation • WP6 Scenario generator • WP7 Freight models and logistics • WP8 Passenger demand model • WP9 Traffic assignment • WP10 Project assessment model • WP11 Model validation • WP12 Deployment, user guide & maintenance

6. WP Overview

7. WP5 Data collection and validation • Several (most) partners involved • Specification and interaction with ETIS+ • Zone system? • Problems with inhomogeneous zone sizes in TT2 due to NUTS 3 requirement, with some especially large zones • Disaggregate data for estimation • National meta data for calibration (such as VoT studies, etc.) • Validation of data

8. WP7 Freight and logistic models • Lead by ITS (Anthony Fowkes) • A new open source NUTS3 model will be developed • Linked model formulation • Intercontinental freight • Model Design (Leader JB + several others) • Trade Model (DTU+ITS) • Firm to Firm Flows (VTI+several others) • Mode and logistics model (ITS+several others) • Various conversion routines • Monetary values, to weight, to trucks,… • Empty return runs? Utilization of coaches • Economics of scale in cost function • Pivot Procedure (DTU)

9. Trade model (task 7.2) • A set of double constrained gravity models • GDP, LoS, trade impediment variables • Non-linear cost functions • Various trade impediment variables expected • Distance, trade associations, common language, common border, cultural dissimilarity • Changes of value/weight ratios • => Freight ton matrices based on modes and NST/R groups

10. Firm to firm flows (task 7.3) • Disaggregation of trade unto firm-to-firm flows • Two ways are examined • Disaggregation of the matrix • Simulation

11. Mode and logistic model (task 7.4) • Nested Logit models • Tractable choice sets for mode choices • Truck, rail, ship, inland waterway • Ferries part of road (and rail) assignment (with a twist regarding roll-on) • Logistic choices are much more complex • Intermediate stops (i.e. terminals and re-loading facilities) • Inventories (temporary storage facilities) • Route choice in multi-modal networks • Exogenous given hierarchy of distribution centres

12. Working of the logistics module Aim: Usage of distribution centres

13. Stochastic air assignment model (Probit), solved by simulation Air journey choice model – same concept may be used for freightn (1) Air connections Egress Links D1 A12 Access links Departure airports Arrival Airports Destination NUTS 3 Origin NUTS 3 D2 A22 A32 D3

14. Air journey choice model – same concept may be used for freight (2) Stochastic air assignment model (Probit), solved by simulation Sea transport Egress Links D1 A12 Access links Terminal Terminal Destination Origin D2 A22 A32 D3

15. Air journey choice model – same concept may be used for freight (2) Stochastic air assignment model (Probit), solved by simulation Egress Links Sea transport Rail yard Egress Links A12 Access links Rail Transport Terminal Destination Rail yard Origin D2 A22 A32 D3

16. Link from air journey choice model to road assignment Departure airport Air connection Access links (airport connector) Connector from airport to road network Connector from NUTS to road network Origin NUTS 3 Path in road network

17. WP8 Passenger demand models • Upgrade to 2010 • New base matrices (from ETIS+) and re-calibration of the model • Re-estimation of models • Non-linear utility functions with mode-specific functional forms • Maybe mixed models (taste heterogeneity) • Fixing of problems with long distance rail

18. WP9 Traffic assignment • Same main model type • Multiclass Mixed Probit models that are solved by simulation (a lot of taste heterogeneity) • GA-based assignment with Generation dependent VoT and vehicle characteristics • Joined assignment of passenger cars and trucks • Improve the existing models • To incorporate, calibrate and validate the new 2010 network data and matrices from ETIS+ into the existing network models • To increase the efficiency of the assignment models with regard to calculation time and convergence. • Merged rail networks (freight and passenger networks) • Better ferry functions

19. WP9 Traffic assignment • Fast implementation (RAP+DTU) • Rail Network and assignment (DTU+RAP+NEST & Others) • Intercontinental air transport (DTU+ETH+UB) • Sea Transport (DTU+NTUA) • Detailed road assignment (DTU+Rapidis)

20. Assignment software and algorithmic improvements • 64 bit • Larger RAM possibilities allow for more efficient solution algorithms • Better use of Multi Core processing (distributed calculations) • Matrix thinning • More calculations on large cells than small within the MSA updating mechanism • Various experiments with step length optimisation • Polyak, Frank Wolfe, combinations • Halton numbers in taste variation • Efficient due to the low dimensional size • SQL server express • Other attempts • Explicit choice set generation proved non efficient with regard to memory demand and solution efficiency • Logit kernel non-efficient

21. Rail networks and assignment • Merged passenger and freight network database • Capacity • Counts • Some line-based information • DTU+NEST+FT+AT

22. Main time schedule • Preliminary ETIS+ input assumed medium Q3, 2011 • Final ultimo Q1, 2012

23. WP3 Architecture & Configuration • Key partners Rapidis & DTU • Different flexible model configurations • General level of detail • Specific level of detail for sub-models. • Different sectors in focus (freight versus passenger transport). • Different modes in focus (road, rail, air, sea transport and inland waterways). • Different policy assessment (policy appraisal versus project appraisals).

24. WP4 Flexible modelling framework Key partner Rapidis Geoprocessing framework in ArcGIS + Simple framework for non-expert users + Automatic calculation of key figures + Automatic creations of maps

25. Cross cutting activities (WP0, WP1, WP11, WP12) Quite a lot of budget, time and focus on documentation Scientific Documentation Report User Guide Validation report Model validation Work Package, with ½ year full schedule at the end of the project