Richard E. Bilsborrow University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

1. International Migration and Remittances in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: Using Household Surveys to Improve Migration Analysis and Policy Responses Richard E. Bilsborrow University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Victor Sulla and Maka Lomaia, World Bank Presented in Istanbul on Dec 7, 2010 Meltem Aran, Consultant World Bank

2. Outline of presentation • The importance of international migration in the World and the ECA region and challenges to collecting good data on migration and remittances • Recent household surveys in the region and limited data collection on migration and remittances • Improving data by adapting existing surveys at low cost • Collecting better data using specialized surveys of international migration • Conclusion

3. LIFETIME MIGRANTS AS PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION, 2005

4. Recent migration, a rare occurrence • Data from the UN Population Division excel files/Wall Chart (2009) show how small the flows are in any recent time period compared to the population sizes of countries. • Only 3 countries in the world (with over 1 million population) have a net annual immigration rate as high as 1% during 2005-2010, and only two having a net emigration rate over 1% (Zimbabwe and Georgia). • This means that recent migrants are rare elements in the populations of countries, and hard to find! This is crucial to bear in mind in surveys seeking data on international migrants!

5. Table 1. Basic Data on Select Countries in Eastern Europe and CIS States Sources: World Bank, columns 3, 4, 8; UN, International Migration Wall Chart (2009) rest.

6. Defining and Measuring Migrants • Based on place (country) of birthbeing different from country of current residence = foreign born • Based on country of previous residencebeing different from current, plus time of arrival (yields fixed-period migration) • Based on citizenship Sources of data: Census, border/admission statistics, current population register, registers of foreigners/foreign workers, naturalization statistics, surveys.

7. Need to consider: What is the main purpose of the data collection on migrants? • Identify/count international migrants-immigrants, emigrants, and/or return migrants? Over some fixed recent time period (cut-off of 1, 2, 5, 10 years)? • Characterize migrants: age, sex, education, work experience, skills, language ability….? • Collect data on remittances sent and/or received? • Study determinants and/or consequencesof international migration?

8. Two ways of collecting better data on international migration/remittances with surveys • 1. Adapt existing survey - which has an established major purpose other than migration, sample size and design, questionnaire, stakeholders, etc. Major advantage: costs of survey already covered, inexpensive to add and process questions/modules Disadvantages: cannot add many questions, sample of migrants may be inadequate • 2. Design and implement a new specialized survey focusing on international migration

9. Types of existing surveys to think of adapting • Household Budget Surveys (HBS) and Living Standard Measurement Surveys (LSMS): • main advantage: obtain detailed data on income, sometimes on remittances received by households • disadvantages: small sample size, no data on immigrants or emigrants • Labor force surveys (LFS) advantages: larger sample, obtain household composition, employment, data on immigrants disadvantages: no income data; usually no remittances data • Other (e.g., Multi-purpose) surveys • Longitudinal surveys

10. Adapting existing surveys to collect more/better data on International Migrants • Requires, if possible: (1) large sample sizeand/or (2) high prevalence of migrants of interest (e.g., households with emigrants), because (recent) migrants are usually …. • “Rare elements”, especially if the focus is on recent migrants vs. lifetime migrants, as it should be for policy • Example, if a country has even a high rate of emigration of 0.5% per year, a survey of 10,000 households asking about those who left in past 5 years will yield only about 250 emigrants in 200 households, if all migrated as individuals • Applies to most useful surveys that already collect useful data for studying migration, viz., household composition, education, employment, wages, etc., which applies to HBS/LSMS and LFS.

11. Surveys analyzed in the framework of this project

12. Countries included in the analysis

13. Availability of Data on Migration in 28 countries of Eastern Europe and the CIS States • From Household Budget Surveys (HBS), LSMS, Labor Force Surveys, and Specialized Surveys • On immigrants: age and sex; country of birth, citizenship, previous residence; when came, reason; education at arrival; if return migrant, etc. • On emigrants, if identified in household: age and sex, when left, destination; reason for leaving; education and employment before leaving and in destination. • On remittances (sent and) received: from former member or not?; country of residence of sender; amount in money, goods in past 12 months; transfer mechanism, use of remittances.

14. Summary of results on data availability 1. Of the 24 most recentHBS surveys: one country identified emigrants from the survey household, with five more partially identifying; 5 identified whether someone left within the past year but only one identified if in a year before that; 3 identified if emigrant currently working in destination country. Regarding remittances, HBS data are much better: 14 identify if household received money from former members in the previous year, though 10 only partially; none identified the country of residence of the person sending, only one the transfer mechanism or use of remittances. 2. Of 18 Labor Force Surveys: 15 identified immigrants and year of arrival, but only 3 inquired if household had an emigrant (6 more partially); only one identified if the person is currently working and destination. No LFS survey obtained any data on remittances.

15. Examples of best practice among the10 CIS focus countries On immigrants: Kyrgyz Rep. HBS obtained country of birth, citizenship and previous residence of immigrant; whether came in past 10 years and year; reason; and whether person is a return migrant. On emigrants: Georgia and Moldova HBS are best, both getting age, sex, education and reason for leaving, but Georgia for only the previous 3 months vs. Moldova for previous 12 mos.; but Moldova only obtains data on persons who left for work, while Georgia covers all emigrants. On remittances received: Georgia HBS is best, obtaining data on both money and goods received and from former household members and non-members; but recall period is only last 3 months, and country of origin for money received is not reported. Uzbekistan is second best, with both also collecting data on money sent to out-migrants but only for past month. LFS in the ECA region cover only immigrants, and only one CIS country carried out a LFS, Moldova, but it obtained no data on migration. LSMS and specialized migration surveys collected considerably more data on migration and remittances in Albania, Armenia, Kosovo, Tajikistan.

16. Examples of questionnaire modules to add to HBS/LFS in countries of emigration or immigration (provided in report) • To identify emigrants/immigrants, questions on: • On basic personal characteristics of emigrants, such as age, sex, education and work activity prior to departure • On reasons for migration • On education and work activity in country of destination • On migration intentions • On remittances received and use • On return migrants

17. Example of Armenia: testing migration questions provided by ILO • This was not a regular LFS of 3,600 households, but rather a one-time special survey of 1,985 households, nationally representative, carried out in 2006, with modules on immigrants, emigrants, and return migrants (40 questions) • For emigrants and return migrants, it covered all persons aged 16+ who had been away over 3 months any time since 1990 • Household head is asked the main characteristics of the emigrant (512 reported) currently living abroad; if he/she is working in the destination country; if ever sent remittances in money and/or goods, when first and last time, amount/value in past 12 months, how sent, and what it is used for. • Return migrants in the household (593) are asked similar questions • Most migrants are married men, living in or returned from Russia. • Unknown if special sampling design was used to find migrants.

18. Conclusion regarding the state of knowledge on international migration • The state of knowledge is weak, partly due to lack of good data and studies • Better data on the number of migrants, basic characteristics, and remittances can be obtained by adapting existing surveys, but only if sample size is sufficient. Otherwise, need to increase sample size or change sample design. • If a country wants to go beyond the above, to study the determinants and/or consequences of migration, a specialized migration survey is needed. • This can use specialized methods of data collection, including (1) a sample design to find enough migrants, and (2) special questionnaires that collect the needed detailed data

19. Designing a specialized survey on international migration This requires two steps: • 1. Stratification with oversampling to select Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) • 2. Use of two-phase sampling in last stage

20. 1. Stratification and disproportionate sampling In country of, e.g., emigration, sample (select) both households with emigrants and those without emigrants. From the latest census or other source, form strata based on the expected prevalence of international migrants. Oversample areas or Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) from strata with high expected proportions of households with emigrants (at each sampling stage—e.g., provinces, then districts, then census sectors) Even highly disproportionate sampling fractions can be used, which concentrates fieldwork where the migrants are, since this can be adjusted for in the analysis using weights.

21. 2. Use two-phase sampling Once the last stage or Ultimate Area Units (UAUs) have been selected, in each sample UAU, in phase 1, conduct a listing or screening operation. This lists all occupied households in the UAU to identify those with and without emigrants (and other migrants of interest). Create separate lists of households with one or more former members who emigrated and did not return in the previous (e.g.) 5 years, those without such a person (and those with return migrants also, if of interest). Sample from each list separately, taking a higher proportion from the list of households with migrants than from the list without migrants. In phase 2, conduct interviews of sample households from both (or all three) lists.

22. Examples of specialized surveys of international migration • Albania, 2008 LSMS with Migration Modules • Kosovo, 2009 Migration Survey • Argentina—example of subnational survey, 2002-2003 • Morocco longitudinal survey, 2008-9 • Egypt Labour Market Panel Survey, 2006- • UNHCR-funded Survey of Colombians in Ecuador, 2006 • NIDI Push-Pulls survey linking countries of origin and destination

23. Example: NIDI - Eurostat Push-Pulls International Migration Survey Project, 1997-1998 • Five countries of origin of migrants: Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Senegal and Ghana Two countries of destination: Italy and Spain • Defined migrant households as having a member who left to live abroad in previous 10 years (or as having someone arriving in previous 10 years) • Use common methodology: sample designs appropriate for rare elements, with stratification, etc.; similar questionnaires • Sample sizes range from 1100-2000 households in countries of emigration; 700-800 migrants in destination countries

24. Conclusions • To collect useful data on international migration and remittances, it is necessary to use clear definitions of migrants (emigrants, immigrants, return migrants). It is desirable to use common definitions across CIS states. • A commitment of CIS states to collect better data will make it possible to compare data on emigrants from A to B collected in A with data on immigrants from A to B collected in B, which will lead to improved data over time. • Modules can be added to existing questionnaires to fit country needs, but sample sizes may not be large enough to provide sufficient numbers of migrants for analysis. This should be checked before adapting existing surveys. • Specialized migration surveys can more efficiently concentrate data collection on households with migrants but involve costs.