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Key issues in session 1

Enlargement and social policy Nick Manning University of Nottingham, UK nick.manning@nottingham.ac.uk. Key issues in session 1. Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states Differences between old and new members Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12.

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Key issues in session 1

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  1. Enlargement and social policyNick ManningUniversity of Nottingham, UKnick.manning@nottingham.ac.uk

  2. Key issues in session 1 • Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states • Differences between old and new members • Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12

  3. Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states • Away from state socialism • Towards neo-liberal, or not • Cyclical swings • Towards the ESM? ….. We need to look at “models”

  4. What is social policy?… all models do this:functions • Production – human capital investment • Reproduction – health and education • Solidarity/legitimacy – pensions & poverty

  5. … with a mix of these:Inputs • Direct Supply • Finance • Regulation Outputs • Meeting needs - equity • economic efficiency • political stability

  6. What is European social policy? • From the “outside” • ESM • (Neo) Liberal • Productivist • Clientalist • From the “inside” – • national welfare regimes • Continental - equity • Nordic – equity & efficiency • Anglo - efficiency • Mediterranean - neither • Transition from state socialism – from equity to efficiency

  7. ESM • Social democratic - 1980s • Neo-liberal - 2004 • Flexicurity – (back to) the future? • Marshall’s hyphenated society: democratic-welfare-capitalism – 1950s

  8. European social policy preferences • A vague ensemble of different institutions, policies and values (Dauderstadt, 2002) • Finance>Economics>Employment>Social protection (Daly, JCMS, 2006) • Equality • Non-discrimination • Solidarity • Redistribution (European Parliament, 2006)

  9. How does social policy change? • ESM’s triple transformation • Reaction to deindustrialisation, ageing and gender • European integration • European enlargement • Constitutional asymmetry • European economic rules constrain national states • National states impede European SP, politically, economically and culturally • New member states

  10. Three ‘worlds of compliance’ • World of law observance (DK, SE, FI) • compliance even if difficult • World of domestic politics (AT, BE, DE, NL, ES, UK) • compliance if no other difficulties • World of neglect (IE, IT, FR, EL, LU, PT) • non-compliance typical • Poland between 1&2 – no race to the bottom • Leiber, S (2007) JESP

  11. EU/enlargement and social policy change – some models (1) Elites and civil society – enlargement itself elite civil/mass society EU + + Poland + + EU - - Turkey +/- -

  12. (2) Cognitive Europeanisation (Spain) • EU - a model • means for political action • establish a vision of preferred future • grasp the means of realising the vision • procedural and substantive change

  13. (3) Policy transfers (most EU members) • Adopted where they fit • OECD advice routinely rejected • values for or against • networks of contacts • definitions of the problem to solved • Positive, instrumental or coercive?

  14. (4) Catching up – can NMEs do the same? • Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain • per capita income • social protection spending • eurobarometer life satisfaction

  15. (5) A “regulatory union”? • Cost • Prior systems • Implementation (no worse than old members)

  16. (6) Resource redistribution – unrealistic now • Cost • Population size

  17. (7) Cultural context • Gender • Family • Religion • Military • Political roots

  18. Differences between old and new members? • Tax – is there a race to bottom? • no evidence for this • Wages – level and dispersion • NME’s growing and dispersing • Government spending – level and trends • Slow convergence in different cycles

  19. Figure 1 Real GDP growth(figures are generated from the micro-data available through TransMONEE 2001, Florence: UNICEF. Each figure includes the 8 CEE accession countries, plus Russia for comparison)

  20. Figure 2 General Government Expenditure/GDP Ratio

  21. Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12 • Inequality - growing, and worse in NMS • Social spending • Health – continued variation • Pensions - this is complex • Education – continued variation • Crime – not as bad as we think • Women – NMS better than many OMS • Minorities – highly varied across the EU • Migration – already slowing down • Time to convergence? 15-20 years or never? • general convergence, but very, very slow

  22. Race to bottom? • low wage competition • low social standards • higher unemployment

  23. Race to the top? • Skilled workforce with high wages • Good social protection • Low unemployment

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