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Social Policy Transformations Post-EU Enlargement: Challenges and Opportunities

This session by Nick Manning from the University of Nottingham explores the profound impact of EU enlargement on socio-economic models in new member states. It analyzes the distinctions between old and new members concerning social realities, welfare regimes, and economic policies. Key themes include the transition from state socialism to neoliberal frameworks, the evolution of European social policy, and the implications of national and EU economic rules. The discussion also considers compliance variations among member states and the slow convergence of social spending and equality.

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Social Policy Transformations Post-EU Enlargement: Challenges and Opportunities

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  1. Enlargement and social policyNick ManningUniversity of Nottingham, UKnick.manning@nottingham.ac.uk

  2. Key issues in session 1 • Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states • Differences between old and new members • Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12

  3. Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states • Away from state socialism • Towards neo-liberal, or not • Cyclical swings • Towards the ESM? ….. We need to look at “models”

  4. What is social policy?… all models do this:functions • Production – human capital investment • Reproduction – health and education • Solidarity/legitimacy – pensions & poverty

  5. … with a mix of these:Inputs • Direct Supply • Finance • Regulation Outputs • Meeting needs - equity • economic efficiency • political stability

  6. What is European social policy? • From the “outside” • ESM • (Neo) Liberal • Productivist • Clientalist • From the “inside” – • national welfare regimes • Continental - equity • Nordic – equity & efficiency • Anglo - efficiency • Mediterranean - neither • Transition from state socialism – from equity to efficiency

  7. ESM • Social democratic - 1980s • Neo-liberal - 2004 • Flexicurity – (back to) the future? • Marshall’s hyphenated society: democratic-welfare-capitalism – 1950s

  8. European social policy preferences • A vague ensemble of different institutions, policies and values (Dauderstadt, 2002) • Finance>Economics>Employment>Social protection (Daly, JCMS, 2006) • Equality • Non-discrimination • Solidarity • Redistribution (European Parliament, 2006)

  9. How does social policy change? • ESM’s triple transformation • Reaction to deindustrialisation, ageing and gender • European integration • European enlargement • Constitutional asymmetry • European economic rules constrain national states • National states impede European SP, politically, economically and culturally • New member states

  10. Three ‘worlds of compliance’ • World of law observance (DK, SE, FI) • compliance even if difficult • World of domestic politics (AT, BE, DE, NL, ES, UK) • compliance if no other difficulties • World of neglect (IE, IT, FR, EL, LU, PT) • non-compliance typical • Poland between 1&2 – no race to the bottom • Leiber, S (2007) JESP

  11. EU/enlargement and social policy change – some models (1) Elites and civil society – enlargement itself elite civil/mass society EU + + Poland + + EU - - Turkey +/- -

  12. (2) Cognitive Europeanisation (Spain) • EU - a model • means for political action • establish a vision of preferred future • grasp the means of realising the vision • procedural and substantive change

  13. (3) Policy transfers (most EU members) • Adopted where they fit • OECD advice routinely rejected • values for or against • networks of contacts • definitions of the problem to solved • Positive, instrumental or coercive?

  14. (4) Catching up – can NMEs do the same? • Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain • per capita income • social protection spending • eurobarometer life satisfaction

  15. (5) A “regulatory union”? • Cost • Prior systems • Implementation (no worse than old members)

  16. (6) Resource redistribution – unrealistic now • Cost • Population size

  17. (7) Cultural context • Gender • Family • Religion • Military • Political roots

  18. Differences between old and new members? • Tax – is there a race to bottom? • no evidence for this • Wages – level and dispersion • NME’s growing and dispersing • Government spending – level and trends • Slow convergence in different cycles

  19. Figure 1 Real GDP growth(figures are generated from the micro-data available through TransMONEE 2001, Florence: UNICEF. Each figure includes the 8 CEE accession countries, plus Russia for comparison)

  20. Figure 2 General Government Expenditure/GDP Ratio

  21. Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12 • Inequality - growing, and worse in NMS • Social spending • Health – continued variation • Pensions - this is complex • Education – continued variation • Crime – not as bad as we think • Women – NMS better than many OMS • Minorities – highly varied across the EU • Migration – already slowing down • Time to convergence? 15-20 years or never? • general convergence, but very, very slow

  22. Race to bottom? • low wage competition • low social standards • higher unemployment

  23. Race to the top? • Skilled workforce with high wages • Good social protection • Low unemployment

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