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Autonomous Weapons

Autonomous Weapons. Stuart Russell Computer Science Division University of California, Berkeley. Lethal autonomous weapons. Locate, select, and eliminate human targets without human intervention Simple forms exist already: Landmines (banned) Samsung sentry robot Israeli Harop missile.

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Autonomous Weapons

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  1. Autonomous Weapons Stuart Russell Computer Science Division University of California, Berkeley

  2. Lethal autonomous weapons • Locate, select, and eliminate human targets without human intervention • Simple forms exist already: • Landmines (banned) • Samsung sentry robot • Israeli Haropmissile

  3. Timeline • Nov 2012, US DoD Directive 3000.09 • Attacks require “appropriate levels of human judgment” • April 2013 UN Heyns report warns of risks • April 2013 Campaign to Stop Killer Robots launched • April 2014 UN treaty discussions begin in Geneva • Jan 23 2015 DARPA describes program goal for semi-autonomous weapons to “hunt in packs, like wolves” • Jan 29 2015 AAAI Debate • July 2015 Open Letter from AI & Robotics Researchers • Warns of arms race, urges action on treaty

  4. Signatories, response • 2981 AI/Robotics Researchers (50 countries) • 11 Presidents of AAAI, IJCAI, IEEE RAS • Senior directorsfrom Google, Facebook, Microsoft • 17,190 others, including Steve Wozniak, Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, Noam Chomsky, Dan Dennett, Martin Rees, Peter Diamandis • >2,000 newspaper articles in 50 countries • Financial Times editorial on 8/4/15: “A nightmare the world has no cause to invent”

  5. Fully autonomous weapons • As autonomous as a chess program • “Probably feasible now” for restricted scenarios (UK MoD) • Accelerated development could yield mass-produced systems for complex missions within 2-5 years, e.g., • Clear an underground complex • Prevent ground infiltration in border area • Capture or eliminate humans meeting criterion X in urban region Y

  6. Component technologies Low-level motor control

  7. Component technologies • Low-level motor control • Navigation, obstacle avoidance • E.g., MobilEye chip for self-driving cars

  8. Component technologies • Low-level motor control • Navigation, obstacle avoidance • E.g., MobilEye chip for self-driving cars • Mapping of new environments • Off-the-shelf technology (video, sonar, laser) • Target and threat recognition • Object and face recognition, tracking > human • Target engagement • Tactical and strategic planning • Cf. strategy game AI, logistics

  9. International humanitarian law • IHL requires the ability to • Discriminate between combatants and non-combatants • Assess military necessity of an attack • Judge proportionality of collateral damage to value of military objective • Increasing scope of autonomy => more difficult decisions • Martens Clause: bans weapons that violate the “principles of humanity and the dictates of public conscience.” • Principles and dictates subject to change w/o notice

  10. IHL contd. • Rough consensus at UN CCW on “meaningful human control” • The feasibility of IHL compliance will change over time • Debating compliance misses the point • Many states and non-state actors don’t care • Autonomous weapons will not be one-for-one replacements for humans

  11. An arms race • Humans will be defenseless, even against micro-UAVs • micro-caliber gun targeting eyes • 1g shaped charge vs. 1cm steel • Mass-produced micro-UAVs are scalable WMDs • $20-$50 per unit; one truckload (106) enough to wipe out a medium-sized city or large infantry force • No significant personnel or infrastructure required • Cf. 106 Kalashnikovs • Autonomous weapons… • empower dictators, non-state actors, terrorists • tip balance of power away from democratic nations

  12. Conflict between robot weapons • Physics matters, AI matters more • Software advantage could emerge/evaporate in days, hacking could be decisive • Military “flash crash” increasingly likely • Continuous self-adaptation is required • Predictability and control are lost

  13. Summary • Autonomous weapons: • a new, scalable class of WMDs • ideally suited for dictators, terrorists • reduce international stability • A treaty banning them is in the best interests of the US and of humanity

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