1 / 44

March 2005

GFNORTE. 4Q04 Results. March 2005. 2004 Results Securitization of IPAB Loans Relevant Events Economic Outlook Final Remarks. 1. 2004 Results. GFNorte Highlights. MILLION PESOS. 2003. 2004. 12%. Net Income. 2,339. 2,621. Net Income w/o extraordinary charge. 2,339. 2,825.

whoopi-clayton
Télécharger la présentation

March 2005

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. GFNORTE 4Q04 Results March 2005

  2. 2004 Results • Securitization of IPAB Loans • Relevant Events • Economic Outlook • Final Remarks

  3. 1. 2004 Results

  4. GFNorte Highlights MILLION PESOS 2003 2004 12% Net Income 2,339 2,621 Net Incomew/o extraordinary charge 2,339 2,825 21% ROAE 17.5% 17.5% 39.00 70.14 Stock Price 80% Net Interest Margin 4.3% 4.9% 4.64 5.19 EPS P/BV 1.39 2.28 64% Performing loans 8% 16% Past due loan ratio 5% 2% Reserve Coverage 122% 153%

  5. GFNorte´s Net Income MILLION PESOS 4Q03 4Q04 Var % 2003 2004 Var % 55% 16% 540 838 1,896 2,200 Banking Long Term 136% 4% 5 11 229 237 Savings (21)% (29)% 30 24 107 77 Brokerage Auxiliary 28% 16% 27 34 98 114 Organizations 580% (166)% (2) 8 9 (6) Holding * 600 915 53% 2,339 2,621 12% GFNORTE * Includes $204 of extraordinary charges.

  6. Profitability & Efficiency ROAE Efficiency Ratio 80% 23.5% 59% 17.0% 4Q03 4Q04 4Q03 4Q04

  7. Bank

  8. Banking Sector´s Income Statement MILLION PESOS 4Q03 4Q04 VAR % 2003 2004 VAR % 2,173 2,733 26% 8,750 9,521 9% Net Interest Income after Repomo 1,033 1,080 5% 4,005 4,315 8% Non Interest Income Services 635 790 24% 2,296 3,018 31% Recovery 386 113 (71%) 827 558 (33%) Foreign Exchange 89 42 (53%) 415 390 (6%) (77) 135 468 349 Trading 277% (25%) 3,206 3,813 19% 12,755 13,836 9% Total Income * (2,569) (2,275) (11%) (9,872) (9,941) 1% Non Interest Expense 637 1,538 141% 2,883 3,895 35% Net Operating Income 6 (369) (6,250%) (829) (1,157) 40% Loan loss and loss Shar. Provistions (88) (57) (35%) (53) 27 150% Non Operating Income, net (31) (284) 816% (103) (552) 436% Income tax and profit sharing 39 58 49% 155 176 14% Subsidiaries and minority interest * 562 886 58% 2,053 2,388 16% Net Income * INCLUDES $202 OF EXTRAORDINARY CHARGES.

  9. NIM vs CETES PERCENT 8.8 8.1 CETES 7.1 77% 6.3 6.3 56% 70% 6.2 5.6 5.4 4.6 4.9 NIM 5.0 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 2Q04 3Q04 1Q04 4Q04

  10. Non Interest Income MILLION PESOS 2003 2004 Trading & Fx 22% Trading & Fx 17% Recovery 13% Service Fees 57% Service Fees 70% Recovery 21% SERVICE FEES 2,296 3,018 31%

  11. Expenses BILLION PESOS 2001 2002 2003 2004 * Total Expense 11.2 9.7 9.9 9.9 * Includes $0.2 of the extraordinary charges . EFFICIENCY RATIO 87% 81% 78% * 72% 70% WITHOUT EXTRAORDINARY CHARGES 2001 2002 2003 2004

  12. Core Deposits BILLION PESOS Deposits 2002 2004 2003 Demand 57 68 65 Time 32 35 34 Total 89 103 99 Mix Demand 64% 66% 66% Time 36% 34% 34% 100% 100% 100%

  13. Core Deposits Mix Cost % of CETES 33% 27% 4Q03 4Q04

  14. Performing Loan Portfolio % BILLION PESOS 84 78 72 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04 QoQ YoY Consumer 23 27 28 4% 24% Commercial 24 26 29 8% 21% Corporate 15 15 14 (4%) (9%) Government 10 10 13 32% 36% Total 72 78 84 8% 18%

  15. Performing Consumer Loan Portfolio % BILLION PESOS 28 27 23 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04 QoQ YoY Mortgage 14 16 17 5% 24% Automobile 5 6 6 0% 12% Credit Cards 3 4 4 8% 34% Payroll Loans 1 2 2 5% 61% Consumer 23 27 28 4% 24%

  16. Asset Quality BILLION PESOS 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04 Total Loan Portfolio 77 83 88 Past Due Loan 3.7 2.8 1.8 Loan Loss Reserves 4.5 3.6 2.7 Past Due Loan Ratio (exc. IPAB) Reserve Coverage 153% 128% 4.8% 122% 3.4% 2.0% 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04

  17. Recovery Bank

  18. Recovery Bank MILLION PESOS 2002 2003 2004 Net Income 612 739 609 2001 2004 Banorte Risk 49% Banorte Risk 28% IPAB & Serfin 51% IPAB & Serfin 72%

  19. Recovery Bank ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT BILLION PESOS 64 65 60 59 Banorte risk (owned + auctions) 18 17 21 32 Serfin Portfolio 20 17 14 12 IPAB Portfolio (servicing) 27 26 24 21 2001 2002 2003 2004

  20. Capitalization Ratio 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04 Tier 1 10.5% 11.4% 12.2% Tier 2 2.2% 3.8% 4.0% TOTAL 12.7% 15.3% 16.2%

  21. Long Term Savings Sector

  22. Afore ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT BILLION PESOS 31 26 21 2002 2003 2004 CUSTOMERS Millions 2.9 2.8 2.6 2002 2003 2004

  23. Insurance GROSS PREMIUMS SOLD BILLION PESOS 2.2 1.9 1.4 2002 2003 2004 CUSTOMERS Millions 2.4 1.5 0.9 2002 2003 2004

  24. Contribution to GFNorte’s Net Income … LONG TERM SAVINGS SECTOR 2002 2003 2004 Afore 6% 4% 5% Insurance 2% 4% 4% Annuities 0% 1% 1% 10% 9% 8% 2002 2003 2004

  25. 2. Securitization of IPAB Loans

  26. Securitization Structure • Sale of 46 billion pesos of IPAB loans (Bancrecer) to a trust. • The trust issues medium term notes to the market, guaranteed by IPAB loans. • AAA ratings by the 3 rating agencies. • No impact in stockholder’s equity. • Funding: out of Banorte’s balance sheet. • Largest securities offering in the history of Mexico.

  27. Total Loan Portfolio BILLION PESOS 168 159 157 156 110 59% 51% 47% 100 66% 12% 71% 46 88% IPAB / FOBAPROA 21% 49% 53% 41% 34% 79% 29% TOTAL LOAN PORTFOLIO 3Q04 1996 1997 2001 2002 2003 2004

  28. Banking’s Sector Balance Sheet BILLION PESOS WITHOUT SECURITIZATION ACTUAL Loan Portfolio 88 Deposits 101 Loan Portfolio 88 Deposits 101 IPAB 12 Money Market 28 IPAB 58 Money Market 74 Others 70 Others 27 Capital 14 170 Others 70 Others 27 Capital 14 216

  29. Transformation of Funding Mix 2002 2004 Money Market 21% Money Market 44% Core 56% Core 79%

  30. Benefits • Savings of Ps 180 millions per year in IPAB fees. • Less pressure in the money market funding. • Clearer financial statements. • Decontamination of financial ratios (ROA and NIM). • Significant reduction of IPAB loans.

  31. 3. Relevants Events

  32. Relevant Events • Acquisition of a corporate building in Mexico City. • 23,000 square meters in 16 stories. • Sale of 8 buildings for a total of US $42 Million. • Total investment of US $63 Million. • Significant synergies.

  33. Relevant Events • Securitization of the Toll Road Monterrey - Cadereyta • Amount: 2,250 million pesos in UDIS. • Maturity: 25 years. • Institutional Investors. • AAA global rating. • Awarded: “Infrastructure Deal of the Year” in the American Continent by “Project Finance International”. • Innovative features: term and single guarantee. • Sólida acquired 7,153 million pesos of distressed assets in 4Q04.

  34. 4. Economic Outlook

  35. Economic Outlook • Mexico will post a 3.8% real rate of growth during2005 boosted by stronger domestic demand. • - The economy grew 4.4% during 2004, driven mainly by external demand. • - Non oil exports increased 13.1% YOY. • - Strong consumption and investmentare expected to lead economic activity during • 2005. • - Investment grew 6.3% during the first eleven months of 2004, while retail sales • increased 4.6% during the same period. • - The labor market is still weak, eventhough 319,000 jobs were created in 2004, and • 400,000 are expected for this year. • Mexico’s debt has been upgraded. • - Public debt management continues to be proactive, shielding the economy against • higherinterest rates. • - Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s raised Mexico’s foreign currency debt rating. • - The current account deficit will be around 2.0% of GDP during 2005, helped by the oil windfall and strong remittances. • - Tax revenues continue to be low relative to GDP, and highly dependent on oil • income.

  36. Economic Outlook • Inflation is easing, but risks remain. • - During 2004, supply shockspushed CPI to 5.19% and PPI to 6.52%. • - Inflation is starting to ease, but medium and long-term inflation expectations remain • high. • - Core CPI is the main concern, at 3.80% in december 2004. • - Strong demand and wage negotiations could exert upward pressures on prices in • 2005. • - A tight monetary stance will prevail over the medium term. • - We expect the peso to be relatively strongduring the first half of the year. • 2006 Presidential Elections will attract markets’ attention. • - The political enviroment will start playing a role in markets’ behavior in the second • half of the year. • - Little –if anything- will be achieved in terms of structural reforms.

  37. Economic Outlook 2004e 03 20 200 5e GDP 1.3 % 4.4 % 3. 8 % Inflation 3.98 % 5.19 % 3.80 % 28 days Cete rate (End of period) 6. 06 % 8.50 % 8.45 % 28 days Cete rate (Average) 6.22 % 6. 82 % 8.81 % Peso exchange rate (End of period) 1 1.24 11. 26 1 1.70

  38. 5. Final Remarks

  39. GFNorte: 2004 Relevant Events • Loan Portfolio transformation. • Orientation to Consumer and SME´s loans. • Cleaning up of past due loans. • Earnings quality. • Efficiency program. • Securitization of IPAB loans. • Market cap.

  40. Loan Portfolio Transformation ORIENTATION TO CONSUMER 2002 2004 Government 10% Government 16% Commercial 27% Commercial 34% Consumer 25% Consumer 34% Corporate 38% Corporate 16% $84 billion pesos $66 billion pesos 27 %

  41. Loan Portfolio Transformation CLEANING UP OF PAST DUE LOANS Past Due Loan Ratio (exc. IPAB) 4.8% 3.4% Reserve Coverage 2.0% 153% 128% 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04 122% 4Q03 3Q04 4Q04

  42. Market Cap CAGR 47% MILLION DOLLARS 3,174 1,751 1,224 1,036 681 Dec'00 Dec'01 Dec'02 Dec'03 Dec’04

  43. GFNorte’s Stock Daily Volume MILLION DOLLARS DAILY AVERAGE 6.7 4.9 4.7 4.2 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04

More Related