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ENERGY OUTLOOK: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Romanian Energy Program, Phase III (REP3). ENERGY OUTLOOK: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. Benjamin Schlesinger, Ph.D. Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. (BSA) Bethesda, Maryland Black Sea Energy Conference Bucharest – April 3-4, 2006. Agenda. 1. Market overview

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ENERGY OUTLOOK: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

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  1. Romanian Energy Program, Phase III (REP3) ENERGY OUTLOOK: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Benjamin Schlesinger, Ph.D. Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. (BSA) Bethesda, Maryland Black Sea Energy Conference Bucharest – April 3-4, 2006

  2. Agenda 1. Market overview 2. International trade 3. Competitive issues/challenges 4. Global dimensions 5. Conclusions.

  3. About BSA… • Independent consultants on energy economics, supply, contracting, pricing, rate design, system costs, regulatory and lender risks worldwide • Market research, energy analysis and forecasting • Due diligence for commercial banks on market risks for 10 major new LNG projects; fuel risks for 105 power projects, and gas storage and pipeline financings • Expert witness on gas markets, pricing, rates, market power, cost of capital, contract issues in 16 jurisdictions • In the 1990s, BSA also provided initial consultation and set-up expertise to the United Nations ECE Gas Centre..

  4. World Oil Reserves Source: Energy and Environmental Analysis 2006, from Oil & Gas Journal.

  5. World Gas Reserves Source: Energy and Environmental Analysis 2006, from Oil & Gas Journal.

  6. Commodity gas and oil prices are increasingly aligned. Source: Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. 2006, from NYMEX at March 28, 2006, Platts.

  7. High prices are forcing US industries off gas. Source: Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. 2006, from EIA.

  8. Bcf/d $/Mcf Shut In Production (left axis) Henry Hub Price * (right axis) Forecast 2005 hurricanes damaged US oil and gas production. Source: EIA Short Term Outlook 1/2006; note: Henry Hub trading suspended 9/23-10/6.

  9. Most leading gas reserve holders will export LNG. Source: Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. 2005, from Oil & Gas Journal.

  10. International gas trading is country-concentrated. Gas Exporters (Tcf/year) Gas Exporters (Tcf/year) Source: Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. 2005, from EIA, 2002 data.

  11. Growing LNG trading in the Atlantic… Source: Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. 2000-2006.

  12. Has forced gas price signals toward the east… Source: Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. 2000-2006.

  13. But will also force price signals to the west as well… Source: Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. 2000-2006.

  14. LNG tanker flexibility will capture arbitrage. Source: Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. 2000-2006.

  15. Oil and natural gas prices will merge, even in commodity markets. Oil, $45/ barrel Gas, forecast range Oil, $35/ barrel NYMEX gas Source: Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. 2006, NYMEX at March 28, 2006.

  16. World gas trade model is a possible solution. Source: Altos Management Partners 2005.

  17. Conclusions, recommendations

  18. Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. The Bethesda Gateway 7201 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 740 Bethesda, MD  20814 Phone: (301) 951-7266 Fax: (301) 951-3381 Visit us at www.BSAenergy.com

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