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HURRICANE MATTHEW IS NOW TAKING ITS PLACE IN HISTORY October 5--?, 2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW IS NOW TAKING ITS PLACE IN HISTORY October 5--?, 2016. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA. MATTHEW IS THE FIRST CAT 5 HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE 2007. FIRST, MATTHEW STRUCK THE CARIBBEAN BASIN, (E.G., HAITI, JAMAICA, CUBA).

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HURRICANE MATTHEW IS NOW TAKING ITS PLACE IN HISTORY October 5--?, 2016

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  1. HURRICANE MATTHEW IS NOW TAKING ITS PLACE IN HISTORYOctober 5--?, 2016 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

  2. MATTHEW IS THE FIRST CAT 5 HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE 2007

  3. FIRST, MATTHEW STRUCK THE CARIBBEAN BASIN, (E.G., HAITI, JAMAICA, CUBA) NOW, ON TO FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES, - - -

  4. FORCAST FOR MATTHEW: OCTOBER 6--?

  5. Nearly 2 Million Under Evacuation in US Ahead of Hurricane Matthew, 16 Killed in Caribbean

  6. THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

  7. The Caribbean:long referred to as the West Indies, includes more than 7,000 islands; of these, 13 are independent island countries

  8. Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s atmospheric-hydrospheric-lithospheric interactions create SEVERE WINDSTORMS

  9. HAZARDS EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY LOCATION ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK RISK

  10. CAUSES OF DAMAGE WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE HURRICANES IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

  11. HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A SEVERE WINDSTORM Entire communities; People, property, infra-structure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

  12. HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)] • DEBRIS • STORM SURGE/FLOODS • HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS • LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) • COSTAL EROSION

  13. THE 2015 SEASON LULLED EVERYONE TO SLEEP

  14. THE 2016 SEASON FORE-CAST CALLED FOR MORE

  15. REVIEW OF THE 2016 SEASON

  16. NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS IN 2016 • ALEX - Tropical storm; January (rare) • BONNIE - Tropical storm; May 27 • COLIN – Tropical storm; June 6 • Danielle – Tropical storm; June 20 • EARL – Hurricane; August 6

  17. TROPICAL STORM --HURICANE EARL IMPACTED HONDURAS, GUATEMALA, BELIZE, AND MEXICO AUGUST 5-9, 2016

  18. EARL CASUED OVER 40 DEATHS IN MEXICO

  19. TROPICAL STORM EARL BECAME HURRICANE EARL

  20. EVEN AS IT WAS DYING, EARL WAS DEADLY

  21. The heavy rainfall from a diminished and dying Earl caused mudslides that led to 40 deaths in eastern Mexico’s Puebla State.

  22. Earl dumped very heavy rain- fall on the region, causing flooding and mudslides, killing six people in the Mexican townships of Coscomatepec and Tequila and at least 40 in Puebla State

  23. MUDSLIDES: SEARCH AND RESCUE

  24. NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS IN 2016 • FIONA - Tropical storm; No consequence (NC) • GASTON - Tropical storm; NC • HERMINE – Tropical storm; Hurricane • IAN – Tropical storm; NC • JULIA – Tropical storm; NC

  25. HURRICANE GASTON (far right): HERMINE (TD 9--far left)

  26. AUG. 31: GASTON DIED IN THE ATLANTIC

  27. HERMINE HEADED FOR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AND PATH ALONG EAST COAST Rain and wind already starting in Florida with much more to come

  28. NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS IN 2016 • KARL - Tropical storm; NC • LISA - Tropical storm; NC • MATTHEW – Tropical storm;

  29. NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS STILL POSSIBLE IN 2016 • NICOLE – Tropical storm; • OTTO – Tropical storm; • PAULA – Tropical storm • RICHARD –Tropical storm

  30. EXAMPLE OF A PAST SEVERE WINDSTORM DISASTER IN THE CARIBBEAN

  31. HURRICANE DEAN: CATEGORY 4 STORM ON AUGUST 17, 2007

  32. CAT 5 HURRICANE DEAN: PRESSURE = 918; 13-23 AUGUST

  33. HURRICANE DEAN: A CATEGORY 2-3 STORM ON AUGUST 17 • The eye of hurricane Dean, the first of the North Atlantic season, passed between the Caribbean islands: Saint Lucia and Martinique, on Friday,August 17. • The two islands, less than 80 km (50 mi) apart were, were struck with winds of 165 - 200 km per hour (100 - 125 mi per hour), storm surge, and heavy rain.

  34. PATH OF HURRICANE DEAN: AUGUST 13 – AUGUST 23

  35. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community torespond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., windstorms, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

  36. Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

  37. THE REASONS ARE . . . • When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST.

  38. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

  39. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community has NODISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

  40. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

  41. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

  42. USE WHAT YOU HAVE LEARNED FROM PAST WINDSTORM LABORATORIES • EACH HURRICANE TEACHES IMPORTANT TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL LESSONS ABOUT HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE.

  43. WINDSTORM HAZARDS • PEOPLE & BLDGS. • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • EARLY WARNING • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION WINDSTORM RISK POLICY OPTIONS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

  44. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND-STORMS PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY SEVERE WIND-STORM HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

  45. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND-STORMS TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI-FICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

  46. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WINDSTORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

  47. STRATEGIC COLLABORATION IS IMPORTANT

  48. PURPOSE MONITORING FOR WARNING AND EVACUATION PROTECTION TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE

  49. PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY PROTECTION TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE

  50. PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE and (SELF-INSURANCE) TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES FACILITATE RECOVERY STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE

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