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Prof. Hongguang JIN Project Co-Leader April 26, 2016

TA 8133 _PRC: People’s Republic of China: Road Map for CCS Demonstration and Deployment. People’s Republic of China: Road Map for Carbon Capture and Storage Demonstration and Deployment. Prof. Hongguang JIN Project Co-Leader April 26, 2016. Technologies to reduce CO 2 emission.

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Prof. Hongguang JIN Project Co-Leader April 26, 2016

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  1. TA 8133_PRC: People’s Republic of China: Road Map for CCS Demonstration and Deployment People’s Republic of China: Road Map for Carbon Capture and Storage Demonstration and Deployment Prof. Hongguang JIN Project Co-Leader April 26, 2016

  2. Technologies to reduce CO2 emission • Improve the efficiency of energy use • Utilize renewable energy • CO2 Capture Storage (CCS) Less Fossil Fuel Low carbon Use of Fossil Fuel 地质封存 咸水层 EoR、ECBM CCS 成本构成 CCSmay contribute 19% of CO2emission reduction(IEA)

  3. The initiation of the project Client : Asia Development Bank/GCCSI Executive Agency : Climate Change Mitigation Division - NDRC Implement Agency : The Center for Strategic Studies and International Cooperation on Climate Change Recommend the National CCS Roadmap of China

  4. Planed Activities Activity 1: Review of CCS roadmaps for the PRC and for selected countries, capture lessons learnt, and conduct situation analysis; Activity 2: Develop tools for, conduct in-depth situation analysis for technologies, and evaluate the potential of deploying CO2 utilization technologies and assess their roles in CO2 emissions reduction; Activity 3: Develop the tools and evaluate the deployment potential of CCS technologies based on the comparison with other CO2 emission reduction technologies and identify technological options of developing CCS in China; Activity 4: Analyze the possible impacts of CCS and CCS demonstration and deployment on the relevant aspects of energy, social/economic regime in China ; Activity 5: Analyze the possible impacts of low-carbon policies on the development of CCUS and CCS in China and identify appropriate policy, legal, regulatory, fiscal and financial support mechanisms for demonstration and deployment of CCS/CCUS technology; Activity 6: Develop the tools and locate the early opportunities and recommend the blue print for CCS demonstration projects in China; Activity 7: Draft the CCS roadmap in China; Activity 8: Capacity building.

  5. Main Outcomes Roadmap for Demo and Deploy（路线图） Early Opportunities for Demo（早期示范） Suitable Technical Path（技术途径） Matching of sources and sinks（封存匹配） Policy Recommendations（政策建议）

  6. 1. Roadmap for CCS Demo and Deploy in China 1 • Principle for CCS Roadmap 2 • Proposal of the Roadmap 3 • Key Actions for the Roadmap 3 • Unique Features of the Roadmap

  7. Great Expectations on CCS IEA, CCS Roadmap, 2010 EU, ZEP/SET, 2007 US, DOE Report, 2010 Roadmaps to promote CCS worldwide

  8. Major obstacles of CCS demo. and deployment High investment cost：$1000/tones-CO2 (scale: million tones/y) Operation cost：$30~80/tones-CO2 Relay on public funding and benefit of CO2 utilization How to overcome the critical gap between demo and commercial deployment

  9. IEA CCS roadmaps released in 2009 and 2013 It means that we haven’t yet find the successful way

  10. Challenges of Coal-relied China • Identification of Specific Issues of China: • Low Energy Efficiency of Coal • coal power plant (42%~45%) much lower than Natural Gas (55%~60%) • Air Pollutants Emission from Coal • 70%~80%SO2，NOX，PM2.5etc. • GDP Loss：7% (1995), 13% (2020) • New Challenge: Green House Gas (CO2) Control • Coal power plantsaccounts for 40% of total emission (8 billion tones in 2013). China need solution of coal technologies to simultaneously save energy and reduce CO2

  11. Penalty of energy and economic is over high by existing CCS technologies • Existing CCS technologies: • Energy Penalty: extra 30~40% of fuel • Cost: 30-70USD/tone 1 billion tce $ 300~400 billions + Unique Issue of China: Heavily relying on coal Huge energy consumption Unacceptable to sustainable development of China

  12. The main principle for CCS roadmap of China • Bottom-up instead of Top-down • The capacity and potential of technologies, instead of emission target, as major concern • Specific issues of China • Coal relied developing country, with large market for power and chemical, with high sustainability requirements • Creativity of CCS technology • Point out the real problem of existing technologies, and indicate the potential of technology innovation

  13. Identify the role and the contribution of CCS in China 2030 may be the breakpoint for CCS in China

  14. Proposal of National CCS Roadmap for China

  15. 2015–2020 A 5–10 large-scale projects in coal–chemical sector with CO2–EOR selected and implemented. 1–3 coal-fired power plants selected for demonstration. B Largest contribution of first generation technologies to the cost reduction curve in coal-fired power plants. C Planned mega coal-fired power plants in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, etc., are constructed CCS-Ready. 2020 10~20 Mt/y 2021–2030 D Largest contribution of second-generation technologies to the cost reduction in coal-fired power plants. E Commercial deployment in coal–chemical industry and demonstration phase for wider CCS application. 2030 30~40 Mt/y 2030–2050 F Capture cost reduction and carbon price reach a level to trigger wider application of CCS. 2050 1.2~2.4 Gt/y

  16. 2. Early Opportunities for CCS Demo 1 • Criterion for early opportunity selection 2 • Proposed method for early demo 3 • Priority sections and regions • Short list of candidate projects 4

  17. Criterion for Selecting Early Demo. Opportunity From the international experiences and lessons, low cost should be the priority factor determining the successful of first mover project Suitable Section：industrial sections with large scale and high purity CO2 emission. Priority Region：with large scale sources and oil field sinks suitable for EoR. Project Owner：big companies own both sources and sinks. Support of Key Stakeholders：with positive support from key stakeholders like local governments.

  18. Coal Chemical combined with EoR – Low cost opportunity for CCS demo in China Combined with + High purity resources Sinks of EoR Cost for capture: around ￥100/t Input output ratio: 1.2~1.5 Benefit business mode for early opportunities

  19. Valuable potential of emission reduction of coal chemical in China Opportunity in Coal chemical industry (hundreds millions tones), especially in alternative fuel production

  20. Priority Regions for Early Opportunities Rich in Coal (power and chemical base) Potential EOR Economic Developed Region Potential off shore Storage

  21. Short List for Candidate Projects located in Ordos Basin Play the transition role in commercial deployment of CCS

  22. 3. Technical Path Suitable for China 1 • The internal problem of existing CCS technologies 2 • Revolution of low-carbon utilization of coal 3 • New generation CCS technologies suitable for China

  23. 燃料化学能 作功能力 Huge Destruction of Chemical Energy Thermal to Power Combustion ~ Rankine cycle Electric The Internal Problem of capturing CO2 from Power cycle Thermal Cycle fuel Combustion Cycle Flue gas capture fuel chemical energy  thermal  power  sacrifice as penalty

  24. Integration mode of resources, energy and environment Resources Energy Environment Chain Mode Integration Mode Capture CO2 from the source of fuel Save energy from the source of fuel China need revolutionary mode integrating resources, energy and environment

  25. Breakthrough Sacrifice the Power Output From Chain mode to Integration mode from Flue gas to Fuel source Capture CO2 from fuel source with chemical energy as driving force Chemical Energy Fuel Conversion Capture from Source CO2 Direction: Chemical Energy Cascade Utilization before combustion Capture CO2 from the fuel source where COX is concentrated Flue Gas Capture

  26. Pre-combus－Post Gasifier Liquid Fuel New Pre-combus－Post Synthesis Reaction Partial Cycle CO2 Removal CO2% CO2 CO2 Polygeneration system for alternative fuel and power with CO2 recovery Post-combustion capture CO2 Removal Coal Combined Cycle Combustion CO2 Gasification Energy Penalty 50% ↓20% 30% ↓20~30% 5~10% The energy efficiency has been increased 3~4 percent points, instead of losing 7~10 percent points.

  27. Zero Penalty-Chemical Looping Combustion Patent by U.S.A and Japan

  28. New generation of Low-carbon coal technology 70% Period of Carbon Emission Control Period of Traditional Pollutants Control New Generation of Low Carbon Emission Clean Coal Technologies 60% Evolution of Coal Fired Power Efficiency 50% 44.8% 263atm, 6000C/6000C Existing CO2 Capture Technologies 40.5% 250atm, 6000C/6000C 40% 36.2% 169atm, 5660C 38.1% 246atm, 5380C/5660C 30% 30.5% 127atm, 5380C 20% 17.5% 42atm, 4500C 10% 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Solve the conflict between CO2 capture and efficiency

  29. Revolutionary impact on Energy & Environment of China Resolve the conflict between energy saving and CCS

  30. 4. Matching between sources and sinks 1 • Evaluation of Storage Potential in China 2 • Preliminary matching between sources and Sinks 3 • Summary for storage potential evaluation

  31. Coal bed storage potential China has 39 major coal basins, which can be divided into 68 coal-bearing area. Coal basins with higher potential (more than 10×108t) Theoretical capacity of coal bed is about 120×108t.

  32. Oil field storage potential China has 14 major oil regions, including 216 oilfields. Oilfields with higher potential (more than 108t) Theoretical capacity of oil filed is 82×108t

  33. Gas field storage potential Chinese conventional natural gas geological resources is 520,000×108m3, and the proved rate is 17.5%. Gas field with higher potential (more than 10×108t) The capacity of gas filed is 9.13-45.67×108t

  34. Priority regions based on Sources & sinks matching Seven priority regions: Ordos Basin, Junggar Basin, Songliao Basin, Bohai Bay Basin, Sichuan Basin, Tarim Basin and Qaidam Basin

  35. Saline aquifer storage potential China has 24 large-scale basin, which can be divided into 70 storage partitions with similar area. Basins with higher potential (more than 100×108t) Theoretical capacity of saline aquifer 19,000×108 tones.

  36. Summary of storage potential evaluation • The theoretical storage potential for geological storage in oil reservoirs in China is about 8 GtCO2, which may meet the requirements before 2040; • The storage potential of saline aquifers onshore is estimated to be 1,300 GtCO2, that of saline aquifers offshore 573 GtCO2, giving combined storage potential of about 1,900 GtCO2. In the medium to long-term, storage will mainly use saline aquifers.

  37. 5. Policy Recommendations 1 • Near term demonstration projects 2 • Mid and long term deployment of CCS

  38. Near term demonstration projects: • Build a national data base of current and planned CCS projects. • NDRC should develop principles for early demonstration projects assessment and support. Accordingly, mechanism should be set up between NDRC and local DRCs for identification of early opportunities. • Select and endorse priority regions, including the Ordos Basin, the Songliao Basin in Northeastern PRC, the Jungar Basin in Northwestern PRC, and the Tarim Basin. • For the 2015~2020 period, the targeted outcomes should therefore be 5~10 CCS demonstration projects in the coal chemical sector and 1~3 projects in the power generation.

  39. Section coordination between sources and sinks should be led by DRCs (national and local). • Provide fiscal and financial support for first-mover projects, like direct capital grants, resource tax relief specific for EOR, an electricity price subsidyand tax relief, government-supported contract-for-difference (CFD), etc.. • International financial support from the Asian Development Bank or the World Bank, such as grants, free or as soft loans, should be necessary. • Reinforce regulations and support policies. During 2020~2030, regulations, support policies, and technical standards for CCS projects and CO2-EOR operations will need further refinement.

  40. Mid and long term deployment of CCS: • Strongly support for RD&D of the second generation CCS technologies suitable for China, such as chemical looping combustion and poly-generation system by 2030~2040.

  41. Encourage international technology transfer. Set up a dedicated international fund to support research and development of key technologies of common international interest. • Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) are expected to drive the commercial deployment of CCS and of all low-emission technologies.

  42. Thanks to support from GCCSI, ADB, NDRC and NCSC! Thanks for contribution of each team-member!

  43. Criterion for Selecting Early Demo. Opportunity 适宜的优先行业：具备高浓度大规模集中排放源的行业领域，如煤液化或C1化工行业； 关注的重点区域：具备EOR的地质条件或化工利用的市场需求，如陕北、新疆鄂尔多斯、四川等盆地地区； 可能的商业模式：工业界为项目主体，配合政府支持、国际资金等，可以实现盈利运行； 利益相关方作用：中央政府统筹计划、项目业主态度积极、地方政府支持配合。 From the international experiences and lessons, low cost should be the priority factor determining the successful of first mover project

  44. 2015–2020 A 在煤化工领域筛选并实施5–10个大型CCUS项 目，电力领域筛选并实施1–3个大规模示范项目。 B 第一代燃煤电厂碳捕集技术成本大幅下降。 C 在内蒙、宁夏、陕西、新疆等地区规划百万吨级燃煤发电CCS项目，同时建设捕集预留电厂。 2020年 10~20 Mt/y 2021–2030 D 第二代燃煤电厂碳捕集技术成本大幅下降。 E 在煤化工行业实现商业化部署，同时进入大范围 推广的示范阶段。 2030年 160 Mt/y 2030以后 F 捕集成本下降伴随碳价上升到一定水平，从而触 发大规模碳捕集和封存应用

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