Joseph Alcamo (Co-leader)* Genady Golubev (Co-leader)**

1. Will Climate Change Affect Food and Water Security in Russia?International Project on Global Environmental Change and its Threat to Food and Water Security in Russia Seminar at the German Embassy, Moscow 13 February 2003 Joseph Alcamo (Co-leader)* Genady Golubev (Co-leader)** Nikolai Dronin** Marcel Endejan* Andrei Kirilenko*** *Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany **Department of Geography, Moscow State University ***Center for Ecology and Forest Production, Russian Academy of Science (currently, Purdue University, USA)

2. The Program Part I. Introduction to the Project Joseph Alcamo Part II. Geography of Food Genady Golubev Part III. Some Remarks on Historical Trends in Food Security Nikolai Dronin Part IV. The Impacts of Climate Change on Food and Water Security in Russia Joseph Alcamo Part V Question Period The Presenters together with colleagues Andrei Kirilenko, Marcel Endejan

3. Objectives of Study Take a fresh view of climate change impacts on Russian agriculture and water resources ... • Focus on extreme climate events such as droughts. • Take into account dependency of regions. • Use state-of-the-art computer modeling. Years: 1995, 2020s, 2070s

4. Support for the Study Max Planck Society, Humboldt Foundation ... to support international cooperation. 2000 - 2002 Organizers: Joseph Alcamo, Genady Golubev Cooperating Organizations: • Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany • Department of Geography, Moscow State University • Center for Ecology and Forest Production, Russian Academy of Science

5. Will Climate Change Affect Food and Water Security in Russia?Part IV. The Impacts of Climate Change on Food and Water Security in Russia Joseph Alcamo

6. Indicators of water use and availability The Impacts of Climate Change on Food and Water Security in Russia Methodology 2 IPCC Scenarios 2 Climate models Population, economic trends Climate scenarios GLASS Model - WaterGAP model - GAEZ model Indicators of water security (frequency of runoff extremes) Indicators of food security (frequency of bad harvest years) Indicators of crop production and trade Analysis of Food Geography

8. Assumptions of IPCC Scenarios for Russia (2025)

9. Climate Change

10. Computing Climate Impacts on Water Resources: the WaterGAP 2 Model • Water Availability • (by 0.5° grid-cell) • Runoff • Recharge • Land Cover • Climate WaterAvailability Watershed Water Stress • Population • Income • Technology • Climate • Water Withdrawals • Domestic(by country) • Industrial (by country) • Irrigation (by grid-cell) • Livestock (by grid-cell) Water Withdrawals

11. Testing the WaterGAP Model River Discharge of Volga at Volgograd (km3/a) Observed Computed

12. Water withdrawals in Russia (2025) Households Industry Agriculture 1995 A2 (2025) B2 (2025) (c) Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, February 2003 – Water GAP 2.1D

13. Changes in Water Resources A2 Scenario 2020s Change in Annual Water Withdrawals(relative to 1995) Change in Annual Water Availability (relative to climate normal)

16. Main Points Climate Change & Water Resources The good news ... • Under climate change, water becoming more plentiful. • Under some scenarios, withdrawals decreasing almost everywhere The bad news ... • Under some scenarios, water withdrawals rapidly increasing in North, Siberia, Far East  increasing pressure on water resources • Extreme events increasing (low runoff in Southwest, high runoff in Siberia & the North) • Southwest already under severe water pressure (agricultural, industrial, domestic users) + increase in low runoff events  New water sources for irrigation projects? Water security problems?

17. Coping Strategies Climate Change & Water Resources “Supply-side”, for example: • Increase water storage. • Using lower quality water. • Build river dikes. • Construct floodways. “Demand-side”, for example: • Water conservation. • Reduce municipal, irrigation leakages. • Early warning systems for droughts and floods.

18. Computing Climate Impacts on Potential Crop Production: The “GAEZ” Model Computes potential production for a particular climate. For prescribed climate conditions, can crop grow? (Uses existing knowledge). If yes, then computes photosynthesis and respiration. Adds in agricultural technology, and other factors. Model tested against data around the world. Tested with data from Central Chernozem region.

19. Production of Most Important Crop Production relative to current (%) 2020s 2070s

20. Change in Total Russian Potential Grain Production (Relative to Current, %)

21. Strong Year-to-Year Variability of Crop Production

22. Main crop  50% grain export regions production

24. Main Points Climate Change & Agriculture The good news ... • Climate becomes more favorable ... Small decrease or increase in total potential crop production up to 2020s The bad news ... • The South getting drier ... • “Bad harvest” years : Increase from 1-2 x per decade  2 – 3 x per decade • Because of reliance of Siberia, Far East, ... on South, bad harvests propagate throughout Russia. • People affected by 1 or more bad harvests per decade: • Now: 58 million • 2020s: 77 million • 2070s 141 million

25. Coping Strategies Climate Change & Agriculture Substitute crops: rye  wheat, wheat  maize, potatoes  rye, Brings only slight yield increase? Expand rainfed crop area • bad soils • costs of expanding production • transport costs for crops • increase of pests, weeds Expand irrigated crop area Southwest water resources already under severe pressure. Diversification of crops Many varieties already available. New genetically-modified varieties? Improving agricultural management • Integrated pest management • Targeted fertilizer use • Reduction of harvest and distribution losses

26. Coping Strategies Climate Change & Agriculture “Security measures” Strategic food reserves – Storing surpluses Early warning systems – Combine climate prediction and expert knowledge Genuine free world trade for food-- A new ethic ... Take world food trade off the political agenda Summing up: Several options, each with its own feasibility and costs

27. Coping is Not the Only Strategy • Reduce greenhouse gases and slow down climate change. • Russia should: • Ratify the Kyoto Protocol. • Join with industrialized countries to severely reduce emissions. • Encourage developing countries to slow down their emission increases.

28. Will Climate Change Affect Food and Water Security in Russia?Conclusions Average changes may not be bad (increased water availability, better crop growing conditions) but climate change will not generally benefit Russia because ... Extreme events such as droughts will occur in sensitive locations and threaten the water and food security of its people. It is time now to act to minimize this threat.

29. Will Climate Change Affect Food and Water Security in Russia?International Project on Global Environmental Change and its Threat to Food and Water Security in Russia Seminar at the German Embassy, Moscow 13 February 2003 Joseph Alcamo (Co-leader)* Genady Golubev (Co-leader)** Nikolai Dronin** Marcel Endejan* Andrei Kirilenko*** * Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany ** Department of Geography, Moscow State University ***Center for Ecology and Forest Production, Russian Academy of Science (currently, Purdue University, USA)

31. The Impacts of Climate Change on Food and Water Security in Russia Methodology Climate models Emission trends IPCC Scenarios Historical climate variability Population, economic trends Climate scenarios Water withdrawals Water availability Extremes of river runoff GLASS Model - WaterGAP model - GAEZ model Future climate variability • Area affected: • by severe pressure on water resources • by increasing extremes of runoff • Area affected • by bad harvest years • Number of people affected by bad harvest years. Potential crop production Import/export between regions • Analysis of Food Geography • Food import/export • Consumption patterns

32. Current Change in production (%) 2020s 2070s