Overview

1. Combining register and survey data in a scenario for long-term careSören M. Werner, City of Freiburg (Germany)

2. Overview 1) Introduction and background 2) Data sources 3) The care projection model 4) The role of the survey data 5) Prospects and improvements

3. Introduction and background Projection of long-term care in Freiburg Model designed by Prof. Blinkert (Institute for Sociology, Freiburg) and Prof. Klie (Institut for applied social research, Freiburg) Assumption: a decisive factor for the future of care and the future of care arrangement is the development of the so called "informal care potential" "Informal care potential": partners and descendants of care recipients; responsible for size of domiciliary care and the number of informal caregivers

4. Introduction and background Input in the projection model: Demographic Change Social change Change of politics Change of mindset towards care Output: number of care recipients inhome care ambulatory care inpatient care

5. Data sources Complexity of projection model allows and demands for inclusion of manifold data: - Population number and population projection - Number and types of households and its projection - Care quotas by sex and age - Employment numbers by sex and age and its projection - Results from citizen survey regarding the willingness to provide care

6. Data sources Survey data supposed to come from TooLS project but - no data for population below 50 years of age - sample too small for population with high age Instead citizen survey was taken, which is carried out every two years and has a high representativity with a dataset of around 2,000-3,000 returned questionaries (Freiburg population ~ 215,000)

7. The care projection model Aim of the care projection model: 1) To show the influence of the demographic change on the number of care recipients 2) To show the influence of demographic and social change on the number of potential informal caregivers 3) To exemplify the impact of additional change in care politics and in the mindset of potential informal caregivers 4) To provide a scope of the development of inpatient care to the local office of social affairs (for the need of care homes)

8. The care projection model Scheme of the care projection model: (A) Population number (B) Care quota (C) Informal care potential (D) Coverage rate domestic care (E) Coverage rate informal care

10. The care projection model Result of care projection model

11. The care projection model It is possible to conceive different scenarios with different assumptions Scenario 1: Demographic and social change (only) Scenario 2: Political conditions for home care are improving and result in higher willingness for home caring Scenario 3: Political conditions for home care are not improving and result in lower willingness for informal caring

12. The care projection model Results of different scenarios for inpatient care

13. The role of the survey data Combination of register data and survey data takes place in the parameter of the informal care potential: "Willingness to provide care to relatives" - used to calculate the size of the informal care potential respectively for the "partners" as well as for the "descendants"

14. The role of the survey data "Imagine, a close relative becomes care-dependent and he or she ist not able anymore to run a household. She would need ... [examples]. Which of the following possibilities come into question for you?"

15. The role of the survey data Informal care potential "Partners":

16. The role of the survey data Informal care potential "Partners": POTPARTti = (MALTti · PZUStig · PHILFEtig · 0,5) + (WALTti · PZUStig · PHILFEtig · 0,5) POTPARTti care potential of partners at time t in age i MALTti no. of men at time t in age i WALTti no. of women at time t in age i PZUStig probability of living in a couple household at time t in age i in sex g PHILFEtig probability of caring at time t in sex g in age i

17. The role of the survey data Informal care potential "Descendants":

18. The role of the survey data Informal care potential "Descendants": POTKINDti = MALTti · (1-MEQti) · PHILFEtig + WALTti · (1-WEQti) · PHILFEtig POTKINDti care potential of descendants at time t in age i MALTti no. of men at time t in age i WALTti no. of women at time t in age i MEQti male employment quota at time t in age i WEQti female employment quota at time t in age i PHILFEtig probability of caring at time t in age i in sex g

19. The role of the survey data From methodological perspective the blending of those different data sources is possible, because - the informal care potential is a fictional quantity and used as a relational quantity, not as an absolute quantity - the main purpose is to include certain, economic, social and socio-cultural developments and not to depict exact realities

20. Prospects and improvements Two aspects have emerged during the projection 1) What happens with the willingness of providing care when the persons get older and move to the next relevant age group? 2) Is it possible to take the "care cultures", the so called "pflegekulturelle Orientierungen", of the different milieus into account?

21. Prospects and improvements 1) - Do the relatives keep their care willingness or do they acquire the care willingness of the subsequent age group? - Is the care willingness linked to the age specific condition of life or is it linked to a cohort specific attitude and preference, which does not change in the aging process? → monitoring the care willingness over a longer period of time → raising the sample of the TooLs survey in order to get valid data especially from the higher age groups

22. Prospects and improvements 2) - It could be possible to include the allocation of the population into the social environments, the milieus. - The basis is the measurable correlation between the belonging to a certain social milieu and the care culture, i.e. the question whether inpatient care, domestic care or ambulatory care is preferred. → enlarging the sample of the TooLS survey for differentiating into milieus

23. Thank you for your attention!Sören M. Werner, City of Freiburg (Germany)