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Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004 Sao Paolo City, Brazil Martin von Lampe

Outlook review for the markets of Cereals & Oilseeds A comparison of projections by OECD, FAPRI and USDA. Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004 Sao Paolo City, Brazil Martin von Lampe Directorate for Food, Agriculture, and Fisheries. 24-28 May 2004.

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Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004 Sao Paolo City, Brazil Martin von Lampe

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  1. Outlook review for the markets ofCereals & OilseedsA comparison of projections byOECD, FAPRI and USDA Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004 Sao Paolo City, Brazil Martin von Lampe Directorate for Food, Agriculture, and Fisheries 24-28 May 2004

  2. Real world grain prices to decrease, but nominal direction less clear… Wheat Maize

  3. … USDA projections consistently below FAPRI & OECD … Rice Soyabeans

  4. … FAPRI closer to OECDexcept for vegetable oils Soya meal Soya oil

  5. OECD assumes stronger US$ … Euro Yen

  6. … and less inflation … USA GDPD* *) USDA: Consumer Price Index

  7. … so differences are even bigger in real USD … Wheat Maize

  8. … or in Euro Wheat Maize

  9. OECD projects strongest demand for wheat … World wheat production World wheat consumption

  10. … similar patterns for coarse grains … World cg production World cg consumption

  11. … but relatively weak supply of oilseeds World os production World os consumption

  12. Where’s the additional trade?- wheat - Add. exports, 2003-13 Add. imports, 2003-13

  13. Where’s the additional trade?- coarse grains - Add. exports, 2003-13 Add. imports, 2003-13

  14. Where’s the additional trade?- oilseeds - Add. exports, 2003-13 Add. imports, 2003-13

  15. Where’s the additional trade?- oilmeals - Add. exports, 2003-13 Add. imports, 2003-13

  16. Where’s the additional trade?- vegetable oils - Add. exports, 2003-13 Add. imports, 2003-13

  17. China:Imports versus stocks Total grain imports* Total grain stock changes *) FAPRI: Net imports

  18. China:Grain prices Wheat Coarse grains

  19. Brazil:How much new area? Total harvested area wheat, coarse grains & oilseeds

  20. Brazil:How much new area? Total harvested area oilseeds only OECD: + 5.7 mio. ha (+31%) FAPRI: + 9.8 mio. ha (+47%) USDA: +13.4 mio. ha (+78%)

  21. Production deficit in the“Rest of World” Wheat

  22. Production deficit in the“Rest of World” Oilseeds

  23. Yield projections:the case of wheat USA

  24. Yield projections:the case of wheat EU

  25. Yield projections:the case of wheat China

  26. Summary(1) • Similar direction of global trends in real prices, but… • USDA prices significantly below FAPRI, OECD above • Differences in projections quite heterogenous • USDA projects weaker demand for wheat, but stronger oilseed supply

  27. Summary(2) • Significant differences in big regions: • China, Brazil, USA, EU, „ROW“ • China • What‘s the future of Chinese imports / how will China respond to deficit? • Brazil • How much new crop land will come into play?

  28. Summary(3) • Developing world in Africa, Asia • How quickly will the food deficit grow? • Yield projections remain crucial • How to improve our yield projections?

  29. Outlook review for the markets ofCereals & Oilseeds Thank you!

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