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EU Survey

EU Survey. April 2019. Methodology. Conducted by Expedition Strategies April 4-10, 2019. 1503 total online interviews in the European Union, weighted proportionally by voting age population. Voters who vote sometimes, most of the time, or always in their country.

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EU Survey

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  1. EU Survey April 2019

  2. Methodology • Conducted by Expedition Strategies April 4-10, 2019. • 1503 total online interviews in the European Union, weighted proportionally by voting age population. • Voters who vote sometimes, most of the time, or always in their country. • Margin of error: ±2.53% (higher among subgroups)

  3. Methodology • We completed the following number of interviews in each country, and weighted the final data proportionally based on voting age population. • Final weighted percentages: • Germany (G) – which represents 30% of the electorate. • France (F) – which represents 23% of the electorate. • Poland (P) – which represents 14% of the electorate. • Sweden (S) – which represents 4% of the electorate. • Netherlands (N) – which represents 6% of the electorate. • Italy (I) – which represents 23% of the electorate.

  4. Overview • Widespread voter anxiety about economic and political conditions. Most believe the economy is working for the wealthy, but many are concerned about how it works for themselves. Other important voter concerns: immigration, climate change. • Most say their country and the EU are headed the wrong way. That means: 1) in many cases the status quo will be a bigger risk than change. So the default would be to vote for change; and 2) there will be little tolerance being asked to accept less (fewer benefits, higher taxes) – particularly unless the burden appears to be shared. • Voters are (not surprisingly) far less concerned about conditions in Europe than in their own conditions – particularly economic. • Most see the EU as important for addressing a small number of challenges – mostly related to harmonizing policies. But improving economic conditions such as wages is largely viewed as a national responsibility, not EU. • Overwhelming agreement that small and medium-sized businesses need help to be more successful even though many industries (finance, health, technology, pharmaceuticals) are viewed as areas of concern.

  5. Top Takeaways – Social Democrats • Legacy support for Social Democrats but lack of clear party definition, and legacy goodwill is higher than actual support in elections. • On the key issues of the day such as jobs, taxes, climate change, immigration, the Social Democrats do not have particularly strong standing. Liberals and Greens benefit most from this but also conservatives. • No party is clear favorite to address key economic issues (wages, jobs, taxes) but Nationalists have standing on immigration and security and Greens dominate climate change. • Security and immigration issues are somewhat conflated in the minds of voters (i.e. immigration is a security issue) but Nationalists are out of step when they cross the line from anti-immigration policy to anti-immigration. • Increased benefits are a problematic issue – support for lower taxes is as great or greater. And a significant number are concerned that too many benefits to go immigrants under current rules.

  6. Top Takeaways – Social Democrats Competition From Other Parties Social Democrats can compete with the Greens on climate change Voters’ priorities are clear – economy, immigration, and environment. The Social Democrats have less definition as a party than do several others parties

  7. Top Takeaways – Social Democratic Opportunities • Economic: voters are pushing more for help with wages and taxes than they are with increased benefits. • Voters across countries surveyed say the way forward should focus on helping small and medium sized businesses rather than on the large companies • Widespread concern that the economy is working for the rich and not for others. • Immigration: openness to immigration but major concerns about whether current distribution of immigrants is fair as well as concern about impact immigration has on security and social benefits (i.e. a shared approach across the EU) • Climate Change: opportunity to seize the mantle of climate change with solutions that ask for a shared contribution rather than ones that would be seen as singling out some people directly (i.e. not diesel taxes)

  8. Political Landscape

  9. Political Landscape • A majority of voters see things in Europe and in their own country as moving in the wrong direction. • Voters top-concerns are mostly economic related (inequality, wages, and taxes being too high) but also climate change and issues related to immigration.

  10. Significant Pessimism Across Countries – Particularly In France, Sweden, Italy Right Direction Country Direction Wrong Track Q20. Do you generally think things in Europe are headed in the right direction or are they on the wrong track?

  11. Jobs, Wages, Immigration, Environment Are Top ConcernsConcerns about immigration are lowest in Poland and Italy % Immigration Top Choice By Country Germany: 13% France: 16% Poland: 0% Sweden: 23% Netherlands: 15% Italy: 6% Most Important Issue Top Choice Only Q22-Q23. In your opinion, which of these problems you would like to see your government address the most/next most?

  12. The Underlying Emotion: “Worry” About Economic Future Is Dominant – Not Optimism Or Anger Economic Future Q39. Which best describes how you feel when you think of the economy in your country for the next ten years?

  13. French and Italian Voters Are Most “Worried” About Economics Economic Future Q39. Which best describes how you feel when you think of the economy in your country for the next ten years?

  14. Economic Concerns Are The Highest Followed Closely By Climate Change Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe.  Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following...

  15. Global And Long-Term Economic Concerns Are Relatively Lower Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe.  Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following...

  16. Income Inequality, Taxes, Wages Are Common ConcernsNationalists are most concerned about high cost of living and children being worse off from their parents, suggesting they are most economically stressed Top Concerns By Party -- % Very Concerned Social-Democratic Nationalist Con. Liberal Far-Left Green • The rich are getting richer all the time (52%) • The cost of living is rising faster than incomes (46%) • Climate change (46%) • Taxes are too high (65%) • Immigrants are coming into your country (59%) • The cost of living is rising faster than incomes (57%) • Today’s children will be worse off than their parents (57%) • The cost of living is rising faster than incomes (34%) • Taxes are too high (34%) • Immigrants are coming into your country (33%) • The cost of living is rising faster than incomes (42%) • Too many people are getting benefits without earning them (42%) • The rich are getting richer all the time (40%) • The rich are getting richer all the time (56%) • Taxes are too high (54%) • Big companies are taking advantage of the average worker (50%) • Climate change (65%) • The rich are getting richer all the time (47%) • Too many people are getting benefits without earning them (47%) Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe.  Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following...

  17. Germans Have Most Positive Outlook About Their Economy; France And Italy The Most Negative How would you rate the economy in your country? Q38. How would you rate the economy in your country?

  18. Political Party Preferences

  19. Top Takeaways – Political Party Preferences • Voters in Poland and Italy specifically do not generically say they support Nationalists’ parties at the same rate at which they identify with Nationalist parties in their respective countries. • This is an indication that some voters do not see the parties they support as Nationalist when in fact they are.

  20. More Identify As Generally Preferring Social Democrats, But Less Than 7-In-10 Of Those Vote Social-Democrat Almost All The Time Or Frequently How often do you vote for the Social Democratic Party candidate in your country? Among Voters Who Identify As Social-Democratic Political Party Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country? Q26. Thinking about the parties you tend to support in elections, how often do you vote for the Social Democratic Party candidate in your country?

  21. How People Who Tend to Like Social Democrats Actually Vote: Swedish and German Parties Retain the Most Support Social-Democratic Party Preferences By Country Germany N=99 France N=86 Poland N=44 Sweden N=63 Netherlands N=64 Italy N=90 • SocialDemocrats (SPD) – 66% • Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – 21% • Christian Social Union (CSU) – 4% • La République En Marche! (REM) – 47% • Socialist Party (PS) – 16% • La France Insoumise (FI) – 13% • Civic Platform (PO) – 36% • Law and Justice (PiS) – 24% • Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) – 16% • Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) – 76% • Sweden Democrats (SD) – 8% • Christian Democrats (KD) – 8% • Democrats 66 (D66) – 22% • Forum for Democracy (FvD) – 19% • Socialist Party (SP) – 16% • Labour Party (PvdA) – 16% • Democratic Party (Partito Democratico) – 48% • Five Star Movement (Movimento Cinque Stelle) – 23% • Forward Italy (Forza Italia) – 16%

  22. Social-Democratic Party Has the Oldest Base of Support; Nationalists Are Primarily In France and Italy

  23. A Majority Sometimes Or Rarely/Never Support Social Democrats In the past, did you support the Social Democratic Party in your country more, less, or about the same as you do now? (Asked of 977 voters who support the Social Democratic Party Sometimes or Rarely/Never) How often do you vote for the Social Democratic Party candidate in your country? Q26. Thinking about the parties you tend to support in elections, how often do you vote for the Social Democratic Party candidate in your country? Q27. In the past, did you support the Social Democratic Party in your country more, less, or about the same as you do now? (If Q26 = sometimes/rarely or never)

  24. Potential Social Democratic Voters

  25. Top Takeaways – Target SD Voters • They are defined as anyone said they used to support Social Democrats more than they do now. • They make up 13% of the electorate. • Moving mostly towards the Liberals and Greens. • Climate change and economic concerns are high among these voters. • Social Democrats compete with Greens on climate and Liberals and Conservatives on the economy with these voters. • These voters do not see Social Democrats as most likely to be competent or get things done.

  26. Target Voters Say They Are Moving More to Liberal and Green than to Conservatives, Nationalists or Far-Left How Target (Potential SD) Voters Have Shifted Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country?

  27. Compared To All Voters, Target Voters Are More Concerned About The Rich Getting Richer And Economic Futures Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe.  Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following...

  28. A Lack Of Good Jobs Is A Stronger Concern For Target Voters Than All Voters Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe.  Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following...

  29. Social Democrats and Liberals Compete on Job Creation and Privacy – Greens Dominate on Climate Among Target Voters Q31. Please tell us which type of party in your country you would trust the most to handle the following issues.

  30. Economic Landscape

  31. Top Takeaways – Economic Landscape • In most countries, large majorities say they think the E.U.’s economy is not as strong as the U.S. (Germany is the exception and they are divided). • In terms of economic challenges: desire for jobs and concern about strains placed on society by immigration are significant. Push for increased social benefits is less of a priority. And concern about wages comes through strongly throughout the survey. • A plurality say China is the E.U.’s greatest economic threat and say China is most likely to develop the next big research breakthrough (not Europe and not the U.S.).

  32. Large Majorities In Most Countries Think The E.U.’s Economy Is Not As Strong As The U.S. • Which is closer to your view of the European Union countries’ economy? It is stronger than the United States’ economy It is not as strong as the United States’ economy Q41. Which is closer to your view of the European Union countries’ economy?

  33. Social Democrats Compete With Conservatives And Liberals On Economic Issues, Nationalists On Security, Greens On Climate Please tell us which type of party in your country you would trust the most to handle the following issues: Q31. Please tell us which type of party in your country you would trust the most to handle the following issues.

  34. Nationalists And The Far Left Focus On Different Aspects Of The Benefits Issue Biggest Economic Challenges Q45. What do you think are the biggest economic challenges that you would like to your government address?

  35. Across The Board Voters Prefer The Government To Help Small And Medium Businesses Over Large Employers • Which do you think the government should focus more on to help the economy in your country? Helping small and medium sized businesses grow and hire Keeping large employers competitive against foreign competitors Q48. Which do you think the government should focus more on to help the economy in your country?

  36. China Looms As The Major Economic Challenger Most Likely To Develop Next Big Breakthrough Biggest Economic Threats Q50. Which of the following do you consider the biggest economic threat that concerns you? Q86. Which do you consider to be the most innovative and most likely to develop the next big breakthrough?

  37. European Union

  38. Top Takeaways – Views About E.U. • Most see the E.U. as a positive force when it comes to personal freedom, the ability to live where they want to, and the ability for companies to be successful. • But, three-quarters say the E.U. has had no positive impact and a third see a negative impact on wages – which is a major voter concern. • E.U. seen as best when it comes to issues like climate change that impact countries across borders, while parliaments are trusted more when it comes to government spending and benefits. • Pro-Brexit Nationalists are out-of-step with their views (not all share this view).

  39. Voters Think The E.U. Had A Positive Effect On Freedom And Choices, But Not Wages Effect of European Union Q32. Please tell us if being a member of the European Union has had a positive, negative, or had no major effect on each of the following in your country.

  40. E.U. Parliament Seen As The Best To Address Climate Change The Environment, And Technology Companies Top Government Issues Q30. Now you will see some issues that government often addresses. Please tell us if you would prefer to have each one primarily addressed by the European Union parliament in Brussels, so the rules or regulations would apply to all countries in the EU, or primarily addressed by the parliament in your country.

  41. Voters Overwhelmingly Want Their Own Country’s Government To Control Government Spending And Benefits Bottom Government Issues Q30. Now you will see some issues that government often addresses. Please tell us if you would prefer to have each one primarily addressed by the European Union parliament in Brussels, so the rules or regulations would apply to all countries in the EU, or primarily addressed by the parliament in your country.

  42. The Role of the E.U. and Nationalists • There are clearly differences between the parties on the question of the role of the E.U. but most voters in all major parties (including nationalists) agree the E.U. should take a major role on: • Climate • Environmental protection • Technology privacy • Product labeling • Liberals and SD voters have many shared views on the E.U. Voters in both groups tend to support a major role on privacy (in general), trade, food safety and immigration. • And half of conservatives also say the E.U. should have a major role on immigration and trade. • But 71% of nationalists see immigration primarily as a national issue, not E.U.

  43. Social Dems And Liberals Most Likely To See E.U. Countries As Economic Allies - Nationalists See As Threat Do you usually think of other countries in the European Union as economic allies of your own country, economic enemies, or neither a threat nor an ally? Q51. Do you usually think of other countries in the European Union as economic allies of your own country, economic enemies, or neither a threat nor an ally?

  44. Nationalists Mostly Isolated In Their Pro-Brexit Views – But Some Common Ground With Far Left • Which side of the Brexit debate do you personally identify more with? Those who are arguing in favor of Brexit and believe the UK should leave the European Union Those who are arguing against Brexit and believe the UK should not leave the European Union Q33. Which side of the Brexit debate do you personally identify more with?

  45. Social Dems, Liberals, Greens Support EU Integration – Most Nationalists, Conservatives And Far-Left Do Not • Thinking about the European Union, which is closest to your view? Deeper European integration will benefit your country economically and socially Your country has already ceded too much of its sovereignty to Brussels Q35. Thinking about the European Union, which is closest to your view?

  46. Immigration

  47. Top Takeaways – Immigration • Islamist terrorism is a concern across parties, but primarily among Nationalists. • However, most voters believe immigration has had a negative impact on their country. • Security concerns and budget strains are seen as the top-negative impacts of immigration – more significant than cultural changes. • A plurality say they want their country to do more to limit migration, but there is larger support for allowing migrants in as long as all countries do their fair share.

  48. Nationalist Motives Questioned The Most In Germany And Poland • Which is closer to your view about nationalist parties in your country? They are motivated by prejudice They are justifiably motivated by concerns about jobs and security Q88. Which is closer to your view about nationalist parties in your country?

  49. Nationalists Are Primarily Concerned About Islamist Terrorism But Many Others Share That Concern Where does the greatest security threat to Europeans come from today? Q58. Where does the greatest security threat to Europeans come from today?

  50. Most Believe Immigration Has Had A Negative Impact On Their Country Which is closest to how you see the way immigration has affected your country? Q59. Which is closest to how you see the way immigration has affected your country?

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