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The Investment Environment for P/C Insurers: Impact of Volatility and Low Yields

This presentation discusses the impact of volatility and low yields on the investment decisions of property/casualty insurers. It provides an overview of the P/C insurance industry's financial performance, profitability, underwriting performance, and investment performance. It also explores the challenges posed by low investment returns and the need for market discipline.

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The Investment Environment for P/C Insurers: Impact of Volatility and Low Yields

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  1. The Investment Environment for Property/CasualtyInsurersImpact of Volatility and Low Yields on P/C Insurer Investment Decisions Insurance Information Institute June 28, 2005 Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038 Tel: (212) 346-5520 Fax: (212) 732-1916 bobh@iii.org  www.iii.org

  2. Presentation Outline • P/C Insurance Financial Overview • Profitability • Wall Street Perspective • Underwriting Performance • Investment Performance: • The Low Yield Conundrum

  3. INVESTMENTS:The Low Return Conundrum:Enforcer of Market Discipline?

  4. Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain* Investment gains are rising but are still nearly 15% below their 1998 peak *Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. Source: Insurance Services Office; Insurance Information Institute.

  5. Net Investment Income Growth History 2002: -1.3% 2003: +3.9% 2004E: +2.4% $ Billions History 1997 Peak = $41.5B • = $40.7B • = $37.7B • = $37.2B • = $38.7B • = $39.6B Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute

  6. US P/C Net Realized Capital Gains,1990-2004 ($ Millions) Realized capital gains rebounded strongly in 2003/4 but are 48% below their 1998 peak Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.

  7. Total Returns for Large Company Stocks: 1970-2005* S&P 500 was up 9% in 2004. Fears of higher interest rates, inflation, the falling dollar, resurgent oil prices are concerns in 2005 • 2003/4 were the first consecutive gains since 1999 2005 Source: Ibbotson Associates, Insurance Information Institute. *Through June 27, 2005.

  8. Interest Rates: Lower Than They’ve Been in Decades, But… • Lower bond yields were the primary driver behind weak investment income in recent years, with the 10-year note reaching a 45-year low in 2003 and falling again in 2005 • Higher ST rates as Fed tightens. • Just 57bp between 1-yr & 10-yr yields* Source: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System; Insurance Info. Institute *As of 6/23/05.

  9. 10-Year Treasury Yields Remain Low and Are Falling* Persistently low interest rates on the 10-year Treasury is a major impediment to investment income growth Eight rate hikes by the Fed since June 2004 (9th like July 1) have lifted ST rates, but not LT yields Source: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System; Insurance Info. Institute *As of 6/24/05.

  10. Portfolio AllocationProgressively More Conservative

  11. P/C Insurance Industry Investment Portfolio, 2003 P/C insurers portfolio is very conservatively invested, with 2/3 of invested assets held as bonds—mostly munis, high-grade corporate bonds and US Treasury securities Source: 2005 Insurance Fact Book, Insurance Information Institute from the NAIC Annual Statement Database.

  12. US Insurers’ Asset Allocation, 1992-2003 (%) Holdings of bonds and cash & short-term securities have increased substantially since 2000. Includes separate accounts. “Loans” include mortgage loans. Source: Swiss Re, Sigma No. 5/2002; 2005 P/C Fact Book, Insurance Information Institute.

  13. Flat Yield CurveInsurers Are Marooned at Short End of Yield Curve

  14. The Treasury Yield CurveHas Become Very Flat “Among the biggest surprises of the past year has been the pronounced decline in long-term interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities despite a 2-percentage point increase in the federal funds rate. This is clearly without recent precedent.” -Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, June 9, 2005 June 2004 December 2004 June 2005 Source: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System; Insurance Information Institute. *As of 6/23/05.

  15. Proportion of P/C Portfolio Invested in Cash and ST Securities Holdings of cash and short-term securities has more than doubled since 1999, reflecting interest rate risk of going long Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute

  16. Proportion of P/C Bond Portfolio With Maturities of 1 Year or Less Holdings of bonds with maturities of 1 year or less are up 50% since 1999, reflecting interest rate risk of going long Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute

  17. Proportion of P/C Bond Portfolio With Maturities of 10 to 20 Years Holdings of bonds with maturities of 10-20 years is down by 27.5% since 1999 and 33.6% since 1994, reflecting interest rate risk aversion Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute

  18. Maturity Distribution of P/CBond Portfolio, 1999–2004E Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute

  19. Maturity Distribution of P/CBond Portfolio, 1999–2004E Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute

  20. Average Maturity of Bonds Heldin P/C Portfolio, 1994-2004E* The average maturity of p/c bold holdings is down nearly 1.5 years since 1999 *III estimate for 2004. Excludes cash and short-term securities. Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute

  21. Duration of P/C Fixed Income Portfolio, Selected Cos., 2001-2004* Average duration is falling as insurers minimize interest rate risk and position themselves for higher long-term yields by staying short and accumulating cash Adjusted duration includes cash and ST investments in calculation *As of Dec. 31 of each year. Based on sample of 50 p/c insurance companies. Source: Credit Suisse First Boston.

  22. Reasons for Persistently Low Long-Term Interest Rates in the US • Expectation of Future Economic Weakness • Weakness may be global in scale • Inflation fears for the longer-term are therefore subdued • Foreign Central Bank Purchases of US Treasurys • Especially China & other Asian central banks • Falling Interest Rates in Other Major Economies • Other central banks cutting rates (or holding constant) • Excess of Savings Elsewhere in World Relative to US • Direct result of massive US trade imbalances • Money comes back to US in form of purchases of US bonds • Weakness in Euro; Crisis of Confidence in EU • Rotation out of Euro and back into the US dollar

  23. US Current Account Deficit, Foreign Savings Help Keep US Interest Rates Low GOODS & SERVICES Rest of World United States Net Savings from ROW IOUs Foreigners buy US fixed income securities, keeping bond prices high and interest rates low

  24. What Could Force US Long-Term Interest Rates Upward? • Expectations of Stronger Economic Growth • Currently no reason for such expectation in US or abroad • Building Inflationary Expectations • Oil at $60/barrel? $100/barrel? • High global commodities prices • Rising Interest Rates Abroad • UNLIKELY: Other central banks want to stimulate their economies • Reduction of Current Acct. Deficit (now more than 6% of GDP) • Reduces flow of cash back to US in form of purchases of US bonds • Chinese Shift to Purchase of Real Assets • Unocal, Maytag, IBM P/C; (Shift from Treasurys—currently hold $660B) • Get readily for lots of China bashing & protectionism • End of Chinese Currency Peg • Theoretically makes Chinese goods more expensive improving US trade situation • Conventional wisdom on impact is likely overblown

  25. Interest Rate Forecast,2005F-2016F Long/Short-term rates are expected to rise and then stabilize Source: Board of Governors, Fed. Reserve System; Blue Chip Economic Indicators as of March 2005.

  26. Insurance Information Institute On-Line WWW.III.ORG If you would like a copy of this presentation, please give me your business card with e-mail address

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