1. HOW TO UNDERSTAND AND FIGHT YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT Samuel EngblomSwedish Confederation for Professional Employees

2. How high is youth unemployment? ”The youth unemployment rate exceeds 21 per cent on average in the countries for which data are available.” ”Since the start of the crisis, the average youth unemployment rate has increased by 7 percentage points…” ”…youth unemployment is now nearly three times the average level among adults aged 25 and over…”

3. How is youth unemployment measured? All youth aged 15-24 Employed In the labour force Youth unemployment = unemployed as a percentage of young people in the labour force Unemployed Outside thelabour force Majority are students, but not all students are outside the labour force

4. How is youth unemployment measured? Unemployed aged 15-24 All youth aged 15-24 år Employed Full-time students Unemployed, not full-time students Unemployed Outside the labour force Discouraged youth

5. How is youth unemployment composed?

6. WORK SOCIAL EXCLUSION Frictional unemployment Lack of experience Lack of education Discouraged youth ”Job ready” Focus for analysis and action

7. What are the causes ofyouth unemployment? Entry level wages are too high? Employment protection is too strict? Youth unemploymentis naturally higher Failures in the education system Seniority rules in dismissal situations disfavours younger workers? Demographic effects

8. Are entry level wages too high? ’As young people, due to their lack of experience, are less productive and a greater risk than older workers, employers will prefer to hire older more experienced workers unless young peoples wages are significantly lower.’ • New research questions the connection between high minimum wages and high unemployment (ILO, OECD, Krugman) • Not a solution for young people with insufficient education, unless much lower. • Productivity gap due to lack of experience is quickly closed, but effects of low entry level wages can stay on. • Big differences between countries and sectors.

9. Seniority rules in dismissal situationsdisfavours younger people ’In case of collective redundancies (dismissals for economic reasons) most countries apply seniority rules or other selection criteria that favours old workers – which means that young people lose their jobs.’

10. …en cas de licenciement collectif pour motif économique, à défaut de convention ou accord collectif de travail applicable, l'employeur définit, […] les critères retenus pour fixer l'ordre des licenciements. Ces critères prennent notamment en compte les charges de famille et en particulier celles de parents isolés, l'ancienneté de service dans l'établissement ou l'entreprise, la situation des salariés qui présentent des caractéristiques sociales rendant leur réinsertion professionnelle particulièrement difficile, notamment des personnes handicapées et des salariés âgés, les qualités professionnelles appréciées par catégorie. France, Code du Travail art L.321-1-1

11. Seniority rules in dismissal situationsdisfavours younger people ’In case of collective redundancies (dismissals for economic reasons) most countries apply seniority rules or other selection criteria that favours old workers – this means that young people lose their jobs.” • Probably only a small percentage of unemployed youth have been affected by seniority rules.

12. Seniority rules and youth unemployment - Sweden Table 1. Unemployed by cause of unemployment and age (per cent). Source: Swedish Labour Force Survey 2008

13. Seniority rules in dismissal situationsdisfavours younger people ’In case of collective redundancies (dismissals for economic reasons) most countries apply seniority rules or other selection criteria that favours old workers – this means that young people lose their jobs.” • Probably only a small percentage of unemployed youth have been affected by seniority rules. • Young people who have been dismissed for economic reasons quickly find jobs again (young, competent, experienced, mobile). • Seniority rules create incentives to invest in older workers – better for society than early retirement.

14. Is employment protection too strict? ’If it is difficult to dismiss workers who do not fulfil the expectations of the employer, employers are less likely to hire young people as they, with less experience and no proven record, are a greater risk.’ • Employment protection weak at the initial stages of employment (probationary contracts, qualifying periods). • In most countries, employers have large possibilities to use fixed-term contracts, which are often used to test new employees. • Economic research proving this hypothesis should be questioned.

15. Failures in the education system “Young people who lack general or vocational education are especially vulnerable to the crisis. They experience more severe scarring effects from periods of unemployment and are more likely to be unemployed long term” (ILO 2010) • More jobs require a higher level of education. • Employers avoid young people who have not finished school, also for less skilled jobs. • Modern labour markets require life-long-learning.

16. How to fight youth unemployment?

17. Different people – different needs WORK SOCIAL EXCLUSION Frictional unemployment Lack of experience Lack of education Discouraged youth ”Job ready” Focus for analysis and action

18. Different people – different needs • No one simple solution to youth unemployment. • There must be different kinds of measures for young people with different needs. • General measures tend to be too broad – dead weight effects. • National differences – no one single strategy.

19. Different people – different needs Practical possibilities to complete their education Good job seeking infrastructure WORK SOCIAL EXCLUSION Frictional unemployment Lack of experience Lack of education Discouraged youth Subsidised employment Guidance and motivation Traineeships Vocational training

20. Reducing youth unemployment WORK SOCIAL EXCLUSION Frictional unemployment Lack of experience Lack of education Discouraged youth

21. The substitution effects dilemma SOCIAL EXCLUSION WORK ?

22. Final advice to young trade unionists • Make your own analysis and identify the real problem. • Dare to question conventional wisdom on the causes of youth unemployment. • Present credible alternative solutions.

23. Contact details Samuel EngblomLegal advisorThe Swedish Confederation for Professional Employees (TCO) samuel.engblom@tco.se