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North American Drought Briefing for March 2014 and January- March 2014

North American Drought Briefing for March 2014 and January- March 2014. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang

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North American Drought Briefing for March 2014 and January- March 2014

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  1. North American Drought Briefingfor March 2014and January- March 2014 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

  2. Current Partners CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier MSU: Lifeng Luo USDA: Martha Anderson Web Masters: Joe Harrison RFCs: James Noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur Project Funded by NOAA MAPP& NASA

  3. P anomalies over the United States March • Dryness over the eastern and central U.S, and heavy rainfall over the Pacific Northwest. California: • Way below normal in January, For March , rainfall was above normal over Northern California Texas Eastern and Central Texas had below normal rainfall for a season • Seasonal A very dry season Dryness over the Southwest, California and the Eastern Central and the Southeast

  4. SPI SPI3 • Texas and the Great Plains: severe drought • Drought over the Southwest and southern California • Heavy rainfall over the PNW in Feb-Mar contributed to the positive SPI3 • SPI6-24 • Drought over California and the Great Plains

  5. The UW multi model Ensemble EMC/NCEP UW JAN Both show drought over California and Texas and the Great Plains North Central– stronger in the EMC

  6. Runoffsimilar to SM EMC/NCEP The current 3 -month runoff indicates dryness over California and the Gulf states eastern Texas, La. 3-month mean Drought over California And Texas , central U.S.

  7. FEB 2014 Streamflow Percentiles (USGS) Improvement: California and Arizona: Worsen Dryness over Texas and the Great Plains Wetness: The Pacific Northwest

  8. UW west Coast region (1/16 degs) (Ca and PNW)http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor_cali/index.shtml

  9. Snotel Still Very dry over the entire western U.S. except the PNW

  10. Conterminous U.S. snowpack 3/29/14, as simulated by VIC model (from University of Washington Surface Water Monitor, www.hydro. washington.edu/ forecast/monitor Contribution from Dennis Lettenmaier

  11. March 23 CA snowpack, 1915-2014 (as simulated by VIC model) Contribution from Dennis Lettenmaier

  12. Keetch-Byram Drought Index March 5

  13. New 4km product Old 10km Martha Anderson http://hrsl.arsusda.gov/drought

  14. Maximum and Minimum Temperature Warm over the western states and cold over the Central and Eastern states

  15. Drought Monitor • Drought conditions over California and Nevada • Texas Drought worsen

  16. El Nino WATCH • El Nino watch was issued ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 60% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall.

  17. Subsurface temp anomalies near the Equator Feb 27,2014 Mar 29,2014

  18. The OLRA pattern is weak. It shows enhanced convection over the dateline and the Indian Ocean The suppressed convection in the Tropical Pacific (Feb) was no longer there. Recent OLRA

  19. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies Suppressed convection along the dateline was no longer there Enhanced convection moved into the tropical central Pacific FEB 2014

  20. ENSO Plume 0.5C line

  21. FEB fcst El Nino Watch ENSO neutral until summer, then 60% El Nino will develop in late summer or fall MARCH Higher probability for ENSO to occur in summer JJA in comparison to last month

  22. May 2014 NMME SST Forecasts • May: Positive SSTAs in the tropical Pacific are stronger than last month forecasts • All models show positive SSTAs in the tropical Pacific. • 1.5C and higher SSTAs in the tropical Pacific by JAS 2014 JAS MJJ 2014

  23. NMME Temp fcsts for MJJ T2M MJJ T2M May All models except FLOR GFDL shows warming over the U.S. Overall warm

  24. NMME P fcsts Precip May 2014 Precip MJJ It shows dryness over Texas, but contributions to negative rainfall are from the NCAR the GFDL (original) model. Texas: all models except GFDL FLORa06 and GFDL (original) show positive rainfall there

  25. SPI fcsts (201404) SPI6 lead-1 mo April SPI6 lead=3mo Jun Spi3 lead=1mo April SPI6 lead=2mo May

  26. University of Washington ICs= 20140404 3 months 1 month April 2 months ACC runoff 1 month lead

  27. Princeton-MSU-EMC fcsts SM April 2014 SM June 2014 April 2014 SM May 2014

  28. MSU fcsts SM week 4 SM week12 SM week 8 SM ICs

  29. Drought Outlooks Seasonal Monthly

  30. Summary El Niño/La Nina: • ENSO-neutral, but all NMME, Plume, consolidation forecasts indicate that warm ENSO will develop by summer Current conditions: • Dry: Drought conditions over California and Texas Prediction: • ENSO Watch was issued , but neutral conditions will continue until spring and early summer, then there is 60% chance for El Nino to develop • California: several rainfall events relieve drought somewhat, but SM , runoff and snow SWE and Snotal still show dry conditions. They are out of their raining season. • Texas drought: All indices show drought conditions worsened in March. Forecasts do not agree. It will depend on the development of ENSO and will monitor carefully

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