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North American Drought Briefing for February 2014 and Dec-Feb 2014

North American Drought Briefing for February 2014 and Dec-Feb 2014. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang

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North American Drought Briefing for February 2014 and Dec-Feb 2014

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  1. North American Drought Briefingfor February 2014and Dec-Feb 2014 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

  2. Current Partners CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier MSU: Lifeng Luo USDA: Martha Anderson Web Masters: Joe Harrison RFCs: James Noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur Project Funded by NOAA MAPP& NASA

  3. P anomalies over the United States February • Dryness over eastern Texas, Oklahoma, La and Arkansas continues • Strong rainfall events over the west Coast relieved drought somewhat • Seasonal A very dry season Dryness over the west coast and the West Gulf states

  4. SPI SPI3: • strong rainfall episodes gave relief to California and the PNW drought • SPI3 shows D2 Drought over California • Drought over the Southern Plains developing • SPI6: • D2 drought over California, 8 FEB 2014 FEB 2014

  5. UW FEB SM percentiles For Feb 2014 NCEP EMC/NCEP The UW multi model Ensemble EMC Dec 2013 Multi model ensemble UW JAN Both show improvement of California and west coast drought Wetness over the Dakotas continues

  6. Runoffsimilar to SM EMC/NCEP The current month runoff indicates dryness over California and the Gulf states eastern Texas, La. 3-month mean

  7. Jan 2013 Streamflow Percentiles (USGS) Dry: Much improved conditions over the West Coast, dryness continues over eastern Texas FEB 2014 Feb 27-Mar 5

  8. Snotel Still Very dry over the entire western U.S., but some improvement over the PNW

  9. California Reservoir Storage, Million Acre-Feet, 2010-14 2011 2010 California recovered from a previous drought in 2009-10. The current drought began during the winter of 2011-12 and has persisted through 2012-13 and into 2013-14. Avg. 2012 2013 2014 Source: California Department of Water Resources Note: One acre-foot is equal to 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water it takes to cover one acre to a depth of one foot. Thanks: David Miskus

  10. California rainfall and reservoirs California depart. of water resources

  11. Keetch-Byram Drought Index Feb 5 March 5 Fire Danger Over California and Nevada

  12. Maximum and Minimum Temperature Warm over the western states and cold over the Central and Eastern states

  13. El Nino WATCH • Finally, the SSTA pattern persisted for more than 8 months states to change • El Nino watch was issued • ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the March-May 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall.

  14. Subsurface temp anomalies near the Equator

  15. The OLRA pattern that shows enhanced convection over the western Pacific and suppressed convection over the Central Pacific in the past 3 months was gone The Feb OLRA shows enhanced convection over the dateline Recent OLRA

  16. Drought Monitor • Similar to the DM last month • Drought conditions over California and Nevada and Texas

  17. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies FEB 2014

  18. ENSO Plume

  19. FEB fcst El Nino Watch ENSO neutral until late summer, then 52% El Nino will develop in late summer or fall MARCH

  20. April 2014 NMME SST Forecasts Two new models from GFDL added to the NMME • SSTAs in the tropical Pacific show El Nino conditions in JJA; • Warm North Pacific SSTAs • Warm North Atlantic SSTAs Season 3 fcst JJA 2014 fcsts AMJ 2014

  21. NMME Temp fcsts for AMJ T2M April T2M AMJ Overall warm

  22. NMME P fcsts Precip APRIL 2014 Precip AMJ All Models except GFDL Florea06 fcst dryness over California 4 models fcst dryness over eastern Texas Dry over California and the Great Plains: ALL models fcst dryness over California Negative anomalies over Texas and Gulf states: CFSv2,NCAR,GFDL GFDL Floreb06

  23. SPI6 fcsts Apr 2014 SPI3 fcsts March 2014 SPI fcsts SPI6 fcst March 2014 SPI6 fcst May 2014 California drought will continue for 2 months Texas : drought over the eastern part

  24. University of Washington ICs= 20140228 Month 1 Month 3 Month 2 Acc runoff month 1

  25. MSU SM Forecasts Lifeng’s contribution IC: 20140130 4 weeks Drought conditions over the West Coast improve Texas: drought developing Wetness over the Dakotas continues 8 weeks 12 weeks

  26. Princeton-MSU-EMC fcsts March 2014 May 2014 Drought over the West Coast continues for at least 2-3 months April 2014

  27. ESP NASA How are we doing? Feb fcsts for March and verification SPI6 SPI6 SPI6 Ja CFSv2 CFSv2-VIC USGS SM % NCEP EMC NLDAS USGS Obs USGS

  28. Drought Outlooks Seasonal Monthly Monthly

  29. Summary El Niño/La Nina: • ENSO-neutral, but warm SSTAs appeared in the Eastern Pacific Current conditions: • Dry: Drought conditions over California and the Pacific Northwest improved , Drought over eastern Texas is developing • Wet: Dakotas Prediction: • ENSO Watch was issued , but neutral conditions will continue until spring and early summer, then there is 52% chance for El Nino to develop • California: drought will continue for another 2 months, but then California is entering its dry season • Texas drought: developing and will monitor

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