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North American Drought Briefing for Jan 2012 and Nov 2011-Jan2012

North American Drought Briefing for Jan 2012 and Nov 2011-Jan2012. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Huug van den Dool

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North American Drought Briefing for Jan 2012 and Nov 2011-Jan2012

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  1. North American Drought Briefingfor Jan 2012 and Nov 2011-Jan2012 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

  2. Current Partners CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Huug van den Dool EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier, S. Shukla, Web Masters: Joe Harrison RFCs: James noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur, John Feldt Project Funded by NOAA MAPP, TRACS& NASA

  3. P anomalies over the United States • High lights: • Jan 2012 • Rainfall over Texas and the Pacific Northwest improved drought • Dry over California and Arizona • Dryness continues over the Southeast and the Atlantic coast

  4. SPI • Drought over Texas improved . It no longer shows up on the SPI3 map • For short term SPI3, dryness improved over the Pacific Northwest • Drought is developing over the region from California to Colorado; • Drought continues over Minnesota , Wisconsin and Southeast D3 D2 D1

  5. Streamflow percentile (USGS) Improvements :Southern Plains and the Pacific Northwest Drought; Northern California, Southeast

  6. RUNOFF 3-mo EMC/NCEP U Washington NCEP/EMC/NLDAS SRI3 Runoff SRI3 from the UW and the NCEP agree SRI3 shows dryness over the West Coast, Southeast and Minnesota Wisconsin. Drought over the Southern Plains improved

  7. U Washington Multi model SM information EMC/NCEP EMC EMC/NCEP SM % agrees with the runoff Drought over the Southern Plains Improved. Dryness only remains over western Texas and southern tip of Texas Dryness continues over California, Minnesota , Wisconsin and Southeast

  8. SM anomaly (mm) for Jan 2012 Runoff anomaly (mm/day) for Jan 2012

  9. Keetch-Byram Drouught index

  10. Drought monitor Dry conditions over the Texas, Oklahoma New Mexico improved Drought continues over Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Southeast

  11. SWE from multi model UW NRCS Basin Averaged Snow Water Content (%) Snow % is below normal from California, Nevada to Colorado

  12. Mean Temperature anomalies : warm over the CONUS Jan

  13. SSTA • La Nina is slightly weaker, but SSTAs the central Pacific are still less than • -1.5C • Positive SSTAs in the North Pacific • Negative SSTAs in the Tropical South Atlantic

  14. OLRA Positive OLRAS (suppressed convection) in the central Pacific and enhanced convection over the western Pacific consistent with cold ENSO The streamfunction anomaly shows positive anomalies over California (dry) and negative anomalies over the PNW (wet)

  15. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies Positive OLRA associated with ENSO dominates over the central Pacific. Regular MJO since Oct 2011. Ensemble mean GFS Time Mar Jun

  16. SSTA forecasts CFSV2 CFSv1 Cold ENSO is weakening quickly Positive SSTAs are still located over the Northern Pacific,

  17. IRI-CPCProbability based ENSO forecasts http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo • Winter- Cold ENSO • MAM-- cold and neutral ENSO have about equal chance to occur • After May –Neutral conditions

  18. T and P fcsts for FMA 2012 precip Temp Pr Cold ENSO impact

  19. SPI forecasts based on CFSv2 (IC s Feb 3,4 2012 • Drought over Texas, Minn, Wisconsin and the PNW will continue to improve. • Some improvement over the Southeast

  20. FCST UW IC s 20120204 SM 1mo SM 3 mo SM 2mo RO 1mo

  21. SM month 1 EMC/Princeton system Ics 20120202 SM month 3 SM month 2

  22. seasonal Drought outlook Last month Need to update This month

  23. SPI forecasts based on CFSv2 ICs Dec 3 and 4 Jan 2012 Verification

  24. Jan SM fcst made in Jan 2012 U Washington conditional EN Ro 1mo verification

  25. Conclusions Ocean conditions : • La Nina is weakening but SSTAs less than -1.5C still remain over the tropical Pacific Current conditions: Dry: • Rainfall brought relieve to the Southern Plains and the Pacific Northwest • Drought continues over Minnesota and Wisconsin • Drought developing from California to Colorado Wet Ohio Valley, Northeast

  26. Prediction La Nina • Cold ENSO is weakening and turning to Neutral conditions by spring Drought • Drought over the Southern Plains , the Pacific Northwest continues to weaken. • Minnesota, Wisconsin and Southeast –continue for two months and then weakening

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