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NWP – READINESS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF SATELLITE DATA

NWP – READINESS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF SATELLITE DATA. John Le Marshall, JCSDA. Overview. Background The JCSDA Mission, Vision Next Generation systems GOES-R, The instruments ABI, HES, SEISS, SIS, GLM

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NWP – READINESS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF SATELLITE DATA

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  1. NWP – READINESS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF SATELLITE DATA John Le Marshall, JCSDA

  2. Overview • Background • The JCSDA • Mission, Vision • Next Generation systems • GOES-R, • The instruments ABI, HES, SEISS, SIS, GLM • Use of heritage instruments for risk reduction • Future • Summary

  3. The Challenge Satellite Systems/Global Measurements GRACE Aqua Cloudsat CALIPSO GIFTS TRMM SSMIS TOPEX NPP Landsat Meteor/ SAGE GOES-R COSMIC/GPS NOAA/POES NPOESS SeaWiFS Jason Aura Terra SORCE ICESat WindSAT

  4. Draft Sample Only

  5. HIRS sounder radiances AMSU-A sounder radiances AMSU-B sounder radiances GOES sounder radiances GOES, Meteosat, GMS winds GOES precipitation rate SSM/I precipitation rates TRMM precipitation rates SSM/I ocean surface wind speeds ERS-2 ocean surface wind vectors QuikScat ocean surface wind vectors AVHRR SST AVHRR vegetation fraction AVHRR surface type Multi-satellite snow cover Multi-satellite sea ice SBUV/2 ozone profile and total ozone Altimeter sea level observations (ocean data assimilation) AIRS radiances MODIS Winds… Satellite Data used in NWP

  6. Sounding data used operationally within the GMAO/NCEP Global Forecast System

  7. NPOESS Satellite CMIS ATMS CMIS- μwave imager VIIRS- vis/IR imager CrIS- IR sounder ATMS- μwave sounder OMPS- ozone GPSOS- GPS occultation ADCS- data collection SESS- space environment APS- aerosol polarimeter SARSAT - search & rescue TSIS- solar irradiance ERBS- Earth radiation budget ALT- altimeter SS- survivability monitor VIIRS CrIS OMPS ERBS The NPOESS spacecraft has the requirement to operate in three different sun synchronous orbits, 1330, 2130 and 1730 with different configurations of fourteen different environmental sensors that provide environmental data records (EDRs) for space, ocean/water, land, radiation clouds and atmospheric parameters. In order to meet this requirement, the prime NPOESS contractor, Northrop Grumman Space Technology, is using their flight-qualified NPOESS T430 spacecraft. This spacecraft leverages extensive experience on NASA’s EOS Aqua and Aura programs that integrated similar sensors as NPOESS. As was required for EOS, the NPOESS T430 structure is an optically and dynamically stable platform specifically designed for earth observation missions with complex sensor suites. In order to manage engineering, design, and integration risks, a single spacecraft bus for all three orbits provides cost-effective support for accelerated launch call-up and operation requirement changes. In most cases, a sensor can be easily deployed in a different orbit because it will be placed in the same position on the any spacecraft. There are ample resource margins for the sensors, allowing for compensation due to changes in sensor requirements and future planned improvements. The spacecraft still has reserve mass and power margin for the most stressing 1330 orbit, which has eleven sensors. The five panel solar array, expandable to six, is one design, providing power in the different orbits and configurations.

  8. 5-Order Magnitude Increase in satellite Data Over 10 Years Satellite Instruments by Platform Daily Upper Air Observation Count NPOESS METEOP NOAA Windsat GOES DMSP Count Count (Millions) 1990 2010 Year Year

  9. GOES - R ABI – Advanced Baseline Imager HES – Hyperspectral Environmental Suite SEISS – Space Environment In-Situ Suite including the Magnetospheric Particle Sensor (MPS); Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (EHIS); Solar & Galactic Proton Sensor (SGPS) SIS – Solar Imaging Suite including the Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI); Solar X-Ray Sensor (SXS); Extreme Ultraviolet Sensor (EUVS) GLM – GEO Lightning Mapper

  10. Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI)

  11. Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) Total radiances over 24 hours = 172, 500, 000, 000

  12. Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) (T) = Threshold, denotes required coverage (G) = Goal, denotes coverage under study during formulation

  13. Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) Total radiances over 24 hours = 93, 750, 000, 000

  14. Data Assimilation Impacts in the NCEP GDAS AMSU and “All Conventional” data provide nearly the same amount of improvement to the Northern Hemisphere.

  15. PARTNERS NOAA/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/OAR Office of Weather and Air Quality NASA/Goddard Global Modeling & Assimilation Office US Navy NOAA/NESDIS Oceanographer of the Navy, Office of Naval Research (NRL) Office of Satellite Applications & Research AF Director of Weather AF Weather Agency US Air Force Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

  16. JCSDA Structure Associate Administrators NASA: Science NOAA: NESDIS, NWS, OAR DoD: Navy, Air Force Management Oversight Board of Directors: NOAA NWS: L. Uccellini (Chair) NASA GSFC: F. Einaudi NOAA NESDIS: A. Powell NOAA OAR: M. Uhart Navy: S. Chang USAF: J. Lanici/M. Farrar Advisory Panel Rotating Chair Technical Liaisons: NOAA/NWS/NCEP – J. Derber NASA/GMAO – M. Rienecker NOAA/OAR – A. Gasiewski NOAA/NESDIS – D. Tarpley Navy – N. Baker USAF – M. McATee Army – G. Mc Williams Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Staff Director: J. Le Marshall Deputy Directors: Stephen Lord – NWS /NCEP James Yoe - NESDIS Lars Peter Riishogjaard – GSFC, GMAO Pat Phoebus – DoD,NRL Secretary: Ada Armstrong Consultant: George Ohring Science Steering Committee

  17. JCSDA Mission and Vision • Mission: Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather climate and environmental analysis and prediction models • Vision: A weather, climate and environmental analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations and to effectively use the integrated observations of the GEOSS

  18. Goals – Short/Medium Term • Increase uses of current and future satellite data in Numerical Weather and Climate Analysis and Prediction models • Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from the advanced satellite sensors • Advance common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure • Develop a common fast radiative transfer system(CRTM) • Assess impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather and climate analysis and forecasts(OSEs,OSSEs) • Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new satellite technology from two years to one

  19. JCSDA SCIENCE PRIORITIES • Science Priority I - Improve Radiative Transfer Models - Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Modeling – The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) - Surface Emissivity Modeling • Science Priority II - Prepare for Advanced Operational Instruments • Science Priority III -Assimilating Observations of Clouds and Precipitation - Assimilation of Precipitation - Direct Assimilation of Radiances in Cloudy and Precipitation Conditions • Science Priority IV - Assimilation of Land Surface Observations from Satellites • Science Priority V - Assimilation of Satellite Oceanic Observations • Science Priority VI – Assimilation for air quality forecasts

  20. JCSDA Major Accomplishments Include • Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA • Community radiative transfer model V2 released • Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system • Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers • Operational Implementations Include: • Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data usage over high latitudes – improved forecasts • MODIS winds, polar regions, - improved forecasts • AIRS radiances – improved forecasts • New generation, physically based SST analysis - Improved SST • Preparation for advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/MHS), DMSP (SSMIS), COSMIC GPS data, EOS AMSR-E, GIFTS,GOES-R • Impact studies of POES MHS, EOS AIRS/MODIS, Windsat, DMSP SSMIS……. on NWP through parallel experiments

  21. NWP – READINESS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF SATELLITE DATA Some examples

  22. Assimilation of GPS RO observations at JCSDA Lidia Cucurull, John Derber, Russ Treadon, Martin Lohmann, Jim Yeo…

  23. GPS/COSMIC 3000 occultations/day 6 receivers 24 transmitters

  24. Information content from1D-Var studiesIASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer)RO (Radio Occultation) (Collard+Healy, QJRMS,2003)

  25. GSI/GFS Impact studies: 2-month cycling at T62L64 • JCSDA has implemented and tested the capability of assimilating profiles of Refractivity (N)and soundings of Bending Angles (BA) in the GSI/GFS DA system. • Initial results are shown opposite.

  26. USE OF SURFACE WIND VECTORS AT THE JCSDA J.Le Marshall

  27. JCSDA WindSat Testing • Coriolis/WindSat data is being used to assess the utility of passive polarimetric microwave radiometry in the production of sea surface winds for NWP • Study accelerates NPOESS preparation and provides a chance to enhance the current global system • Uses NCEP GDAS

  28. JCSDA WindSat Testing • Experiments • Control with no surface winds (Ops minus QuikSCAT) • Operational QuikSCAT only • WindSat only • QuikSCAT & WindSat winds • Assessment underway

  29. AMSR-E radiance assimilation in GSI FASTEM AMSR-E radiance at low frequency contains signature on surface wind speed and temperature over Oceans. Surface emissivity plays an important role in direct radiance assimilation. The new emissivity model reduces the error in model radiance simulation. CRTM

  30. Aura/OMI Total Ozone • Aura satellite launched in July 2004. • NASA began providing OMI Total Ozone data to NOAA in NRT February 2006 • OMI provides 1000x more obs than operationally assimilated SBUV/2. • ~90,000 OMI obs/orbit vs. ~90 SBUV/2 obs/orbit • OMI profile to become available soon. • same quality and vertical resolution as SBUV/2 but 1000x the number of profiles • JCSDA is assimilating Aura/OMI total ozone into the NCEP GFS in test mode . • Aura/HIRDLS profiles will be available for assimilation tests soon. • Profile is higher quality and higher resolution than SBUV/2

  31. NPOESS Satellite CMIS- μwave imager VIIRS- vis/IR imager CrIS- IR sounder ATMS- μwave sounder OMPS- ozone GPSOS- GPS occultation ADCS- data collection SESS- space environment APS- aerosol polarimeter SARSAT - search & rescue TSIS- solar irradiance ERBS- Earth radiation budget ALT- altimeter SS- survivability monitor The NPOESS spacecraft has the requirement to operate in three different sun synchronous orbits, 1330, 2130 and 1730 with different configurations of fourteen different environmental sensors that provide environmental data records (EDRs) for space, ocean/water, land, radiation clouds and atmospheric parameters. In order to meet this requirement, the prime NPOESS contractor, Northrop Grumman Space Technology, is using their flight-qualified NPOESS T430 spacecraft. This spacecraft leverages extensive experience on NASA’s EOS Aqua and Aura programs that integrated similar sensors as NPOESS. As was required for EOS, the NPOESS T430 structure is an optically and dynamically stable platform specifically designed for earth observation missions with complex sensor suites. In order to manage engineering, design, and integration risks, a single spacecraft bus for all three orbits provides cost-effective support for accelerated launch call-up and operation requirement changes. In most cases, a sensor can be easily deployed in a different orbit because it will be placed in the same position on the any spacecraft. There are ample resource margins for the sensors, allowing for compensation due to changes in sensor requirements and future planned improvements. The spacecraft still has reserve mass and power margin for the most stressing 1330 orbit, which has eleven sensors. The five panel solar array, expandable to six, is one design, providing power in the different orbits and configurations. AMS 2006 - Future National Operational Environmental Satellites Symposium Risk Reduction for NPOESS Using Heritage Sensors 33

  32. NPOESS/JCSDA The Instrument Complement: • CrIS • ATMS • VIIRS • CMIS • OMPS • GPSOS-deselected • ALT The Heritage Instruments: • AIRS, IASI • MSU, AMSU, HSB, MHS • AVHRR, MODIS • SSMI, SSMIS, WINDSAT • TOMS, SBUV • CHAMP, SAC-C, COSMIC • ALT

  33. NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) The Instrument Complement: • CrIS • ATMS • VIIRS • OMPS JCSDA is preparing to assimilate NPP data for operational use

  34. The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and GOES-R Risk Reduction Activity

  35. GOES-R The Instrument Complement: • ABI – Advanced Baseline Imager • HES – Hyperspectral Environmental Suite • SEISS – Space Environment In-Situ Suite including the Magnetospheric Particle Sensor (MPS); Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (EHIS); Solar & Galactic Proton Sensor (SGPS) • SIS – Solar Imaging Suite including the Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI); Solar X-Ray Sensor (SXS); Extreme Ultraviolet Sensor (EUVS) • GLM – GEO Lightning Mapper The Heritage Instruments: • GOES Imager, MODIS, AVHRR • AIRS, IASI

  36. JCSDAGOES-R RISK REDUCTIONRELATED ACTIVITY Preparation for Data Assimilation • GOES-R Instrument Radiative Transfer Modeling- Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) • Risk Reduction Instrument Studies, OSSEs –AIRS, … • Data Assimilation Research/Risk Reduction using Heritage Instruments- AIRS, MODIS, HIRS, AVHRR, IASI, GOES … • Participation in Calibration/Validation and preparation for early data access. • Development of assimilation methodology for GOES-R data etc. (3D VAR, 4D VAR..) • Preparation of the numerical forecast systems (GFS, WRF, HWRF….) to use GOES-R data FY 2012 – Data Assimilation system prepared for use of GOES-R data

  37. Using GOES Imager and MODIS data in Preparation for the Advanced Baseline Imager

  38. Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI)

  39. MODIS Wind Assimilation NCEP Global Forecast System10 Aug - 23 Sept, 2004 John Le Marshall (JCSDA) James Jung (CIMSS) Tom Zapotocny (CIMSS) John Derber (NCEP) Jaime Daniels (NESDIS) Chris Redder (GMAO)

  40. The Trial • NESDIS generated AMVs • 10 Aug - 23 Sept 2004 • Terra & Aqua satellites • Middle image used for tracers • Post NESDIS QC used, particularly for gross errors cf. background and for winds above tropopause • Winds assimilated only in second last analysis (later “final” analysis) to simulate realistic data availability.

  41. Global Forecast System Background • Operational SSI Analysis used • Operational GFS T254L64 with reductions in resolution at 84 (T170L42) and 180 (T126L28) hours. 2.5hr cut off

  42. 2004 ATLANTIC BASIN AVERAGE HURRICANE TRACK ERRORS (NM) Results compiled by Qing Fu Liu.

  43. ERROR CHARACTERIZATION OF ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS AT THE JCSDA Picture J.Le Marshall

  44. Expected Error - provides RMS Error (RMS)   Estimated from five QI components wind speed vertical wind shear temperature shear pressure level which are used as predictands for root mean square error

  45. Accuracy of EE

  46. Using AIRS data in Preparation for the Hyperspectral Evironmental Sounder

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