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Results-chain analysis

Results-chain analysis. Indicators of success. Rainer Heufers Strategic Planning in Think Tanks, Baku, October 22 - 24, 2012. SIAP Solutions Pte. Ltd., Singapore, rainer.heufers@siapsolutions.com. PLANNING: start with the end in mind. Results chain model. EVALUATION: check and verify.

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Results-chain analysis

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  1. Results-chain analysis Indicators of success Rainer Heufers Strategic Planning in Think Tanks, Baku, October 22 - 24, 2012 SIAP Solutions Pte. Ltd., Singapore, rainer.heufers@siapsolutions.com

  2. PLANNING: start with the end in mind Results chain model EVALUATION: check and verify

  3. Evaluation means: • Comparing actual project results against the agreed strategic plans • Learning in order to improve future performance • Raising credibility and accountability required by donors and other stakeholders • Reviewing data and anecdotes about how we contribute to changes in societies • A functioning results-based management (RBM ) system linked with evaluation systems

  4. Impacts (Indirect Benefit) Attribution Gap Outcome (Direct Benefit) Use of Outputs Outputs Activities Own Inputs Partner inputs Objective Results chain model

  5. Direct Benefit Objective Attribution gap Impact Use of Outputs Output Activities Partner Inputs Own Inputs How reality looks like

  6. Attribution Gap System Border 2 System Border 1 Source: GIZ presentation

  7. Sustainable Development (e.g. MDGs) Indirect Benefits / Impacts Border 2 Outcome / Direct Benefit through Use of Project Outputs Use of Outputs Border 1 • A project never stands alone • It needs inputs from others • It creates new/unexpected things • With linear & non-linear linkages Outputs of the Project Outputs of an Organization

  8. How to design the result chain in governance interventions • Either by • isolating a relatively small working area, which allows to define and control direct chains of causes and effects between the services/output, the use of the output and the direct benefit. • or by • orienting at the overall political objective, which to achieve our services / output contribute only a marginally visible, but strategic contribution. • Both is not fully satisfying, but it ensures to develop a realistic perspective on the possible achievements of the interventions.

  9. Evaluating Output • Did we do what we set out in the plan? • Did all our activities work towards the agreed objectives? • How many people did we reach, how many times, over which period? • Did we produce sufficient quality?

  10. Evaluating Use of Output • Which messages did people take away from the activities? • Where these accurate and positive? • Did people use our content in ways that contribute to the objectives of our mission?

  11. Evaluating Outcome • What is the end result of our activities? • Did we achieve our strategic goals? • How did we change behaviour? • Did we contribute to win hearts and minds for our cause?

  12. Evaluating Impact • How did our programmes contribute to building a free society as we envision it? • How can these changes be attributed to our programmes?

  13. Results-based Management System (RBM) Selection of good indicators • The indicator relates to a central, significant aspect of the objective. • The performance standard set by the indicator at one level is adequate to achieve the next highest level. • The change measured by the indicator can be directly attributed to the influence of the project. • The achievement of project objectives is measured independently of inputs or activities. • The data necessary to measure the objective are obtainable. • Specific purpose for the business, it is Measurable to really get a value of • the KPI, the defined norms have to be Achievable, the improvement of a • KPI has to be Relevant to the success of the organization, and finally it • must be Time phased.

  14. Role of RBM • Monitoring up to the objectives level • The following points have to be observed: • results of major activities • outputs for third parties • use of outputs • external forces that promote or hinder the use of outputs, direct result. • Monitoring beyond the objectives level • Observe changes in the wider setting of the development measure that can be plausibly linked with the achievement of objectives. • Use of existing, reliable secondary data, supports partner organisations to set up corresponding monitoring and data collection systems, or collects relevant data on its own or together with other actors operating in the same sector.

  15. Evaluation • Refers to an ex-ante set of indicators: • Assumptions about threats and opportunities • Targeted number of media reports • Number of institute’s staff or volunteers • … • Relies on instruments of a results-based management (RBM): • Reports of sub-units • Assessment of the press • External reports • Available surveys • Observation of opponents • …

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