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Assessing Economic Recovery: Current Trends, Job Growth, and Global Impacts

In this presentation, Dr. Roger Tutterow of Kennesaw State University discusses the sluggish recovery five years post-recession. Key topics include GDP growth vs. final sales contributions, low job growth despite economic expansion, the impact of fluctuating oil prices, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. Additionally, the considerations surrounding global growth trends, particularly in Europe and China, are addressed, alongside the potential for an equity market correction given record-high prices.

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Assessing Economic Recovery: Current Trends, Job Growth, and Global Impacts

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  1. ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATERoger Tutterow, Ph.D.Professor of EconomicsColes College of BusinessKennesaw State Universityrtuttero@Kennesaw.edu2014 Economic ForumDallas, TX October 7, 2014

  2. Question #1: July marks the 5th anniversary of the recovery - why is the economy so sluggish and when will “normal” arrive?

  3. GDP vs. Final Sales

  4. Contributions To GDP Growth

  5. ISM’s “PMI”

  6. Consumer Sentiment

  7. Retail Sales:

  8. Retail Sales: Autos

  9. Retail Sales: Furniture/HF

  10. Leading Economic Indicators(source: Conference Board, % change in last 6 months)

  11. Question #2: If the economy is truly growing, why is job growth so low?

  12. Change in Employment (non-farm payrolls)

  13. State Employment (Jobs Lost)

  14. State Employment (Jobs Recovered)

  15. State Employment (Net Change)

  16. Employment Change: LA Cities

  17. Employment Change: NM Cities

  18. Employment Change: OK Cities

  19. Employment Change: TX Cities

  20. US Employment Shift by Sector

  21. Unemployment Rate

  22. Employ/Pop Ratio

  23. Question #3: Oil prices have pulled back again. Is there still a risk to growth? . . . and, are the inflation worries on or off the table?

  24. Prices: Still talk of Deflation/Inflation? • CPI fell by 0.2% in August after having risen by 0.1%, 0.3% and 0.4% in previous three months. • Core was flat in August after having risen by 0.1%, 0.1% and 0.3% in the three prior months. • Overall CPI up at an 1.7% annual rate over last 12 months. Core up 1.7% over same period. • Energy component was down in 2.6% in August and up 0.4% over the last 12 months

  25. Crude Oil(Spot Price, WTI)

  26. Natural Gas Prices(Henry Hub MM BTU)

  27. Question #4: "Operation Twist" finished at the end of 2012. So now, the question shifts to exit strategy? . . . How long a “taper”? . . . and what about bank balance sheets? . . . and are private capital markets the solution?

  28. Federal Funds RateShort Rates on Hold to ‘15?

  29. 10-Year Treasury BondTwist Again?

  30. Current Yield Curve

  31. Foreign Interest Rates

  32. Foreign Interest Rates

  33. Mortgage Spreads

  34. Corporate Bond Spread(BAA less 10 Year Treasury)

  35. Loan Delinquency

  36. Charge Off Rates

  37. Credit Unions: Credit Quality

  38. Equity/Assets Stable?

  39. Credit Unions: Net Worth Ratio

  40. Bank Credit Loosening?

  41. Demand for C&I Loans?(net percent reporting increase)

  42. Net Interest Margin

  43. Return on Equity(All Commercial Banks)

  44. Question #5: Europe is stabilizing, growth is slowing in China - what's slowing down global growth and how does it affect the US?

  45. Germany 2014 forecast =1.9% France 2014 forecast =0.9%

  46. Question #6: With Equity Markets at new highs, is a correction near?

  47. Equity Prices – 1 Year

  48. Equity Prices – 5 Year

  49. Shiller CAPE

  50. Shiller CAPE

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